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  1. #1
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    What is Russia up to?

    My reading is this. Putin is massing troops on the Ukraine border. He is also holding back on supplying gas to the EU, where there is a shortage. Putin wants Nord 2 approved. So the strategy is to agree to pull back the troops from the UA border in exchange for Nord 2 approval. As a bonus, RU can start pumping gas to the EU. Then there is the closer NATO ties with Ukraine and Turkey increasing it's influence in the Black Sea area. Looks to me like the strategy is to pull back from the border, in exchange for Nord2 approval and something on NATO.

    Putin wants a summit with Biden who hasn't agreed to one. Who can Putin negotiate an agreement with? Merkel hasn't agreed. Scholtz?

    "Putin has blamed record high prices on the EU's energy policy and said Russia can boost supplies to Europe once its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline gets approved."

    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...er-2021-10-25/
    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-insist...ply/a-59633894

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/llewell...h=d5ec8f512905
    Last edited by xt-tsi; 05-12-2021 at 10:50.

  2. #2
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    What a bunch of crap you read, no wonder you don't know what's going on.

    Putin will meet with Biden next week, Russia is full filling all gas contracts with the EU and even filled full storage tanks in the EU and can supply more gas but nobody has asked for it. The only thing Russia has said about pumping more gas through Ukraine is that the pipes are old so they don't think it can handle more gas.
    Russia has not massed troops on the Ukrainian border, they are close to Belarus, far from Ukraine, Ukraine has moved their troops (150,000) and heavy weapons close to Donbass and the US has sent more war ships to the Black Sea. Russia has said that they will not sit by and allow NATO troops in Ukraine or for Ukraine to join NATO.

    All these articles you linked to are lies.
    If you trust the government you obviously failed history class. " George Carlin"

  3. #3
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    You are right. Putin and Biden might meet in early 2022. They will do a videoconference next week. Didn't do my homework on that one. It didn't get past sharp eyed Uncle Wally.

    Some Russian troops are in Yelnya closer to the Belorussian border and a few hundred kilometers from Ukraine. More Russian troops are massed on the Ukraine border, that being what all the fuss is about.

    Still trying to project how this will play out gas pipe wise and with regards to NATO. Any thoughts?

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    Getting Nord 2 approved quickly will be tricky in my opinion. If I’ve understood the debate correctly, it’s an EU regulation that either needs to changed or complied with. Getting it changed will take time and is not guaranteed. Complying with it should not be a problem and, to be honest, I don't understand why the necessary steps were not taken earlier. Gazprom (and the Germans) should have known about this.

    I wonder who would be hurt most — Russia, Ukraine or the EU countries — if there was a conflict and the result were to lead to sanctions on Russia including a ban on them selling oil and gas to Europe. There aren’t a lot of alternative suppliers who could step in at short notice and at a competitive price.

    Regarding Ukraine joining NATO, whilst I understand Russia’s concerns, including the fact that NATO said it wouldn’t happen back in the 90s, surely it is up to Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine is, after all, an independent country and it is not for Russia to tell it what it can or cannot do.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by xt-tsi View Post
    My reading is this. Putin is massing troops on the Ukraine border. He is also holding back on supplying gas to the EU, where there is a shortage. Putin wants Nord 2 approved. So the strategy is to agree to pull back the troops from the UA border in exchange for Nord 2 approval. As a bonus, RU can start pumping gas to the EU. Then there is the closer NATO ties with Ukraine and Turkey increasing it's influence in the Black Sea area. Looks to me like the strategy is to pull back from the border, in exchange for Nord2 approval and something on NATO.

    Putin wants a summit with Biden who hasn't agreed to one. Who can Putin negotiate an agreement with? Merkel hasn't agreed. Scholtz?

    "Putin has blamed record high prices on the EU's energy policy and said Russia can boost supplies to Europe once its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline gets approved."

    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...er-2021-10-25/
    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-insist...ply/a-59633894

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/llewell...h=d5ec8f512905
    The premise of your statement reveals you to be a western empirialist war mongerer. Or at least one who reads such material and being a loopy leftist who clearly lacks basic geography skills and takes delight in offending others while proclaiming innocence and some supposed moral high ground while clasping your hands to your chest in feigned shock.

    Let me rephrase it for you in a neutral way.

    Russia maybe moves around military inside its own country borders and others have a problem with that.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by americaninmoscow View Post
    The premise of your statement reveals you to be a western empirialist war mongerer. Or at least one who reads such material and being a loopy leftist who clearly lacks basic geography skills and takes delight in offending others while proclaiming innocence and some supposed moral high ground while clasping your hands to your chest in feigned shock.

    Let me rephrase it for you in a neutral way.

    Russia maybe moves around military inside its own country borders and others have a problem with that.
    That was mean. Bad bad bad!

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by xt-tsi View Post
    My reading is this. Putin is massing troops on the Ukraine border. He is also holding back on supplying gas to the EU, where there is a shortage. Putin wants Nord 2 approved. So the strategy is to agree to pull back the troops from the UA border in exchange for Nord 2 approval. As a bonus, RU can start pumping gas to the EU. Then there is the closer NATO ties with Ukraine and Turkey increasing it's influence in the Black Sea area. Looks to me like the strategy is to pull back from the border, in exchange for Nord2 approval and something on NATO.

    Putin wants a summit with Biden who hasn't agreed to one. Who can Putin negotiate an agreement with? Merkel hasn't agreed. Scholtz?

    "Putin has blamed record high prices on the EU's energy policy and said Russia can boost supplies to Europe once its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline gets approved."

    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...er-2021-10-25/
    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-insist...ply/a-59633894

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/llewell...h=d5ec8f512905
    Lets do it another way.

    Please post proof of anything you have stated above.

    Links to russian troop movements, buildups, anything.

    Also, please post proof of putin holding any gas back, as this would violate business contracts and would be very easy to prove. Also, since putin is not in charge of a gas company, a presidential degree will suffice. Or a law, or something.

    Post proof of anything you have because it is a wild conspiracy theory otherwise and the links you have posted are puff opinion pieces about literally nothing.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by americaninmoscow View Post
    Lets do it another way.

    Please post proof of anything you have stated above.

    Links to russian troop movements, buildups, anything.

    Also, please post proof of putin holding any gas back, as this would violate business contracts and would be very easy to prove. Also, since putin is not in charge of a gas company, a presidential degree will suffice. Or a law, or something.

    Post proof of anything you have because it is a wild conspiracy theory otherwise and the links you have posted are puff opinion pieces about literally nothing.
    Thanks for the good laugh this morning. Especially the war mongerer part.

    We won't get far with sources I provide. You will simply claim that they are lying, leftist, pinky, socialist media and nothing in them has merit, if they disagree with your own premise.
    Last edited by xt-tsi; 06-12-2021 at 10:03.

  9. #9
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    a lot is - saber rattling -. it is rather cold in Austria and Germany. and while Russia delivers only about 30% of all gas to the EU, it is also the former - east block- friends who are depending on russian gas. if bad comes to worse, first thing GAZPROM will turn off is ALL the das. never mind where it goes. I'm not talking about China or East, but to the West. As a - precautionary measure-. Than let the USA bring coal and LPG to the Ukraine or the EU. Biden barely if at all can fulfill the needs for back home. and that is only the gas. what goes through the DRUZHBA pipeline that was build still before the DDR? there are many things GAZPROM can do, we even don't want to know about it... VVP and Biden will talk, a lot will be written about it, LOCAL press here and there will swoon over the winner of those talks. in the end it is always a politica give and take. the only thing is VV is in the far better position to take than have to give. BUT he is also far to clever to plainly use it. Let's just hope that Biden and his Expert -sovetniks - also understand that. Germany got a new kanzler, only in business a few days. Austria has the third Kanzler in 3 month. France still remembers Napoleon how he got trounced in Borodino ( even that history is not correct there) .The Brits? do they care what happens 2000 miles away from home?So who else in the NATO might be in Bidens -coalition of the willing-? Or might it be Fidschi Island or Kamerun in Africa? i doubt it...
    There is no greater treasure then pleasure....

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by xt-tsi View Post
    Thanks for the good laugh this morning. Especially the war mongerer part.

    We won't get far with sources I provide. You will simply claim that they are lying, leftist, pinky, socialist media and nothing in them has merit, if they disagree with your own premise.
    I too have memberships and subscriptions to most of the serious sites/orgs you have cited regarding geo-politics/foreign affairs. Im pretty aware of what a lot of people are saying. When i was younger i was very blindly pro-empire. Now i see things differently.

    But backing out cuz you cant prove your own conspiracy is pretty weak. And only proves it is one a war pig would take.

    You claim to be fluent in russian. Just use the skills of yandex and prove the basis of your claim before we move to theoreticals. Or use vk, which is how vice tracked and basically proved a few russian soldiers were fighting in the donbass. Or photos. Or whatever. Be creative.

    Take an easy way.

    Just find gas contracts that have been violated by the russian gas companies. There should be lawyers and courts already working on these cases if they exist.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benedikt View Post
    a lot is - saber rattling -. it is rather cold in Austria and Germany. and while Russia delivers only about 30% of all gas to the EU, it is also the former - east block- friends who are depending on russian gas. if bad comes to worse, first thing GAZPROM will turn off is ALL the das. never mind where it goes. I'm not talking about China or East, but to the West. As a - precautionary measure-. Than let the USA bring coal and LPG to the Ukraine or the EU. Biden barely if at all can fulfill the needs for back home. and that is only the gas. what goes through the DRUZHBA pipeline that was build still before the DDR? there are many things GAZPROM can do, we even don't want to know about it... VVP and Biden will talk, a lot will be written about it, LOCAL press here and there will swoon over the winner of those talks. in the end it is always a politica give and take. the only thing is VV is in the far better position to take than have to give. BUT he is also far to clever to plainly use it. Let's just hope that Biden and his Expert -sovetniks - also understand that. Germany got a new kanzler, only in business a few days. Austria has the third Kanzler in 3 month. France still remembers Napoleon how he got trounced in Borodino ( even that history is not correct there) .The Brits? do they care what happens 2000 miles away from home?So who else in the NATO might be in Bidens -coalition of the willing-? Or might it be Fidschi Island or Kamerun in Africa? i doubt it...
    Fear porn and scary ghosts from the past.

    Im not sure what else is written there ceot usa can sell lng to europe but that idea is mostly dead.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by americaninmoscow View Post

    You claim to be fluent in russian. Just use the skills of yandex and prove the basis of your claim before we move to theoreticals. Or use vk, which is how vice tracked and basically proved a few russian soldiers were fighting in the donbass. Or photos. Or whatever. Be creative.
    This is boring.

    I'll do it myself. Just because it is dumb and for those that are seriously geographically challenged but like to sound smart and believe in ramping fear porn up to 100 but unfortunately are in the position to make normal everyday lives even worse than they are.


    Here is the prob start of this entire idea. Notice, it is from WaPo, so this is for the DC insiders to read and understand the tea leaves.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...2ad_story.html

    Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns


    Ok, so off the bat we can see conjecture. How does US intelligence know Russia is planning an invasion? How do they know the numbers? It sounds good, but this is just a massively aggressive bluff. Once you hang around military guys long enough, you can smell an aggressive posture a mile away.

    But, let's keep going.

    Now, here is seemingly a nice and scientific chart/graph to represent the "non-classified" documents that reveal Russia's ultimate goal.

    What can we see? Color - to indicate something, of what, we can't be sure, but it keeps us busy and looks important. A generic map that shows us the general area. and supposed build-up of something, we can exactly be sure of what, but we are lead to believe what they write - which is Russian troops and tanks and more. The trick for this one is close enough to see empty space, but far enough way to not see anything at all. It's a classic jedi-mind trick. Except in reverse, because these ARE the droids you are looking for.

    Attachment 35760

    There are 4 highlights or areas of attention we are asked to note and observe.


    So, let's look at #1.

    Attachment 35761

    The first thing we should notice is that it is closer to Moscow than anything. And then Belarus. Not really close to Ukraine at all. But why take my word? Let's use google.


    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 14.38.10.png

    As google shows, Yelena is roughly a four hour drive from Moscow. Considering my dacha is about an hour and a half to two hour drive, this isn't very far from Moscow at all. But how far is it from Ukraine? Since that is where the Russians will invade, right? Let's look.

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 14.42.54.png

    Google maps puts it at roughly a 2 hour drive from the border. So, this is an interesting situation. Not quite on the border but close enough to be a real concern. Of course, the more than likely military objective ISN'T just to rush to the town and touch the line and quickly return, but to do something. As to what that something is, it is out of the scope of this analysis. But, more than likely, it would be to push further into Ukraine.

    Just for a quick perspective check though - let's look at the US. And considering I'm from the West Coast, this will be my base.

    Seattle is roughly a three hour drive from Vancouver, BC. So, this is about how far away our town of Yelena, Russia is from the border of Ukraine. I seriously doubt anyone would consider any kind of movement in Seattle to be a threat to Vancouver and to characterize it as an invasion force, well - lol.

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 14.47.08.png

    So, on to point 2-

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 14.52.00.png

    This looks potentionally more interesting. Let's see.

    At first, according to the WaPo map, it looks close. But uh-oh! What does google say?

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 14.53.56.png

    It looks to be at least 5 hours away. That is at car speed on the highways. Who knows how quickly tens of thousands of troops and tanks will take. But at any case, we can guess they won't travel faster than a car, so let's use the 5 hour drive time.

    But back to the WaPo picture and we can see just one date there for both points 2 and 3. This shows us as new hardware being there since Nov 21. So, nothing before. Who knows how long it has been there, if indeed these "photos" do actually represent the real situation on the ground.

    So, not only is the distance even further for points 2/3 than point 1, but we can't clearly see a build-up, which is the entire point of the article and more specifically this graph which states ....evidence of recent Russian.... build-up. There is no evidence. Just a photo of a grainy black and white something with a nice clean yellow line denoting something. We are to assume the yellow is as they say.


    Back to America and we can see that there is an air base located in Portland, Oregon. (they fly nearly every morning and are freaking loud and super annoying!) Although Portland is almost 6 hours away from Canada, airplanes can travel much faster. Is this base considered an invasion force?

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.03.02.png


    Which leaves us with point 4.

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.05.53.png


    But before we look at it, we notice something......

    what is this? Where is this represented on the chart?

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.06.58.png

    We can see points 1, 2/3 and 4, but what is this? point 5? Why isn't it written about? Is there any proof that anything is happening here? Or they just needed more color on the map to complicate things and thus confuse people?

    or is it represented here-

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.09.05.png

    This is difficult to understand as we can also see Crimea written in the description, but surely they aren't lumping point 5 in with Crimea? Crimea is point 4, after all. Hmmmm.... a mystery!

    So, back to the pic and let's see what we have -

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.10.56.png
    Last edited by americaninmoscow; 07-12-2021 at 01:44.

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  14. #13
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    Now, point 4 seems the most interesting. Seemingly, it is located a lot closer not only to Ukraine's borders, but also to the ongoing conflict in the eastern region of Ukraine. But let's look -

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.14.33.png


    Google says it is at least a two and a half hour drive from the Ukrainian border. So, again, this is a possible cause of concern, but is it? Considering Crimea is basically an island. The Russians would have to take land routes. And in order to get either troops or other military assets to be pre-positioned, they would have had to travel over the Kerch bridge. And this of course, leads us to ask for evidence of any military movements. Especially on a scale large enough to invade. But do we have this?

    Here is what WaPo gives us -

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.19.57.png

    Again, no before picture, no after picture. Just a statement that we are meant to take at face value. So, not quite what they advertised in the headlines, at all.

    So, let's take a step back and look again-

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.21.06.jpg

    This is the general picture they wish to present as a statement of fact.

    Does this look like an invasion force of nearly 200,000 troops?

    In fact, if we read this again, they project possibly an even larger number-

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.23.02.png

    But it actually shows a considerably smaller number @ only 70,000 troops now currently represented.

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.27.44.png

    The entire article is a sleight-of-hand and pure puffery and conjecture! (possible, maybe, projected, etc)

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.28.29.png

    So, what are we to make of all this?

    Does anyone really think an invasion force of nearly 275,000 (actually 70K +175k 100k = 345k) soldiers could be kept a secret? Does this WaPo chart show us anything? Or does it prove its case beyond a reasonable doubt?
    Last edited by americaninmoscow; 07-12-2021 at 01:42.

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    Just as a for fun exercise if someone has enough time-

    Just go and actually count the number of either structures or vehicles in the grainy black and white photos.

    I just did and in point 2, there are maybe less than 20 somethings. Whatever those things are, there aren't very many of them. Just to be safe, let's say 30.

    Here is a US football stadium with a capacity of around 70,000. See how big the parking lots are? And how much space 70,000 fans take up?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Stadium

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.40.59.jpg



    Where are the 70,000 troops in the WaPo photos?

    Hiding in the forest somewhere?

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    Oh, I just noticed one other great but very purposeful trick used - Map distortion. Just look here and see who the small guy is. And we should remember, in America, we always cheer and root for the smaller guy/the underdog. So, it should come as no surprise that Ukraine is pureposly made to look very much smaller compared to big bad Russia.

    Propaganda is Kool on so many L3v3ls !!!!!!!


    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.50.13.jpg

    See how small Ukraine is? Crimea is the same size as the Google map. So is Moldova. It just seems as if Ukraine went on a diet and lost half its weight. :? Come back baby ! We are very body positive here in America. No need to feel ashamed......

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.50.24.png

    Here is google Maps for a comparison.

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 15.49.32.jpg

    And for good measure-

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 16.08.10.png

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 16.16.14.jpg

    Screenshot 2021-12-06 at 16.16.53.png
    Last edited by americaninmoscow; 07-12-2021 at 02:26.

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