Anyone in a Betting Mood?

[nicklcool]

No one wants to place POTUS bets this time around?
Trump's chances are just as bad this time around, as they were four years ago! >:}

[Benedikt]

No one wants to place POTUS bets this time around?
Trump's chances are just as bad this time around, as they were four years ago! >:}

suppose the 10 day weather forecast around here is more accurate than a 2 day prediction who will be POTUS...

[xt-tsi]

My bet is that we won't know the final results for several weeks and if they are close (or in favor of Biden by a few votes), Trump and the GOP will contest them. There will be a dispute, taking the matter to Congress and possibly the Supreme Court. Lawyers for Trump and Biden are feverishly preparing for this eventuality.

An equally important issue is the makeup of the Senate in deciding the outcome. My prediction is that the GOP will retain its very small majority. The House will go to the Democrats by an increased majority.

With the Senate having a small majority and the Supreme Court a majority of conservative judges, the election results will be decided in favor of Trump.

[Benedikt]

With the Senate having a small majority and the Supreme Court a majority of conservative judges, the election results will be decided in favor of Trump.[/QUOTE]

as i quoted Stalin - it doesn't matter who and how it is being voted, but who and how the votes are being counted....

[xt-tsi]

This article is worth looking at. I'd preface my comment by saying I believe none of the polls showing Biden is a clear favorite.

However, generally, the elections will probably be decided in about six states, due to the electoral college system in the US. Within those states, the deciding factor will be in all likelihood be about 20 counties, per this article. Other versions I've read say as little as 10 and as much as 60 counties will decide the outcome. Nevertheless, the deciding votes will be cast in by very small percentage of the total country.

My bet is that Biden will win the popular vote by a bigger margin than Clinton did. But it won't matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

[nicklcool]

Yep, we are after all a republic, not a democracy. There are much more erudite descriptions out there of why and how our electoral.college is the best for our system of government, so I won't do your time a disservice. But have I presumed correctly, xs-tsi, that you think it's "bad" that POTUS isn't determined by a straight popular vote? That seems a bit facetious.


Anyways, whoever was around here four years ago will recall how I won a friendly bet with RLad, when Trump improbably won!
Anyone feel like betting on Weekend at Biden's this time around?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qu6PH9E5jiA

We could donate the winnings to the charity of the winner's choice.

[Uncle Wally]

This article is worth looking at. I'd preface my comment by saying I believe none of the polls showing Biden is a clear favorite.

However, generally, the elections will probably be decided in about six states, due to the electoral college system in the US. Within those states, the deciding factor will be in all likelihood be about 20 counties, per this article. Other versions I've read say as little as 10 and as much as 60 counties will decide the outcome. Nevertheless, the deciding votes will be cast in by very small percentage of the total country.

My bet is that Biden will win the popular vote by a bigger margin than Clinton did. But it won't matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

The New York Times is one of the most biased newspapers in America, second only to The Washington Post. I don't believe a thing they write. 57,000 people showed up to a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, ordinary people organizing Trump rallies with boat parades, in California no less Trump rallies are popping up with thousands of people taking part. There was one in Beverly Hills! People are flipping their vote! The number one search on Google after the last debate was "How can I change my vote" the same thing happened after the oh so wise and all knowing people at Twitter banned The New York Post article about Hunter Biden. Look geeks might know how to make something on the internet that fools you and gets you addicted to it but they are dumb when it comes to real life. People care about money, the economy and having a job that makes them enough money to have a little enjoyment in life. Most people are tired of the corrupt politicians that lie and do nothing but make rich people richer. This is why Trump was elected in the first place. The Democrats and their pay master's are so arrogant that they think that they still have the power to get anyone elected. I don't think they learned anything from the last election, first they picked Joe Biden???? The guy that lost the last two times he ran because he got caught lying and plagiarized his speeches. He even got caught doing that in college where he finished at the bottom of his class. The biggest thing to worry about is the mainstream media and Democrats are setting up a coup. They keep reporting that Trump won't step down if he loses and the Democrats have already hired an army of lawyers to fight a Trump victory. This is going to be a long and drawn out election.

[TheInterocitor]

Yep, we are after all a republic, not a democracy. There are much more erudite descriptions out there of why and how our electoral.college is the best for our system of government, so I won't do your time a disservice. But have I presumed correctly, xs-tsi, that you think it's "bad" that POTUS isn't determined by a straight popular vote? That seems a bit facetious.


Anyways, whoever was around here four years ago will recall how I won a friendly bet with RLad, when Trump improbably won!
Anyone feel like betting on Weekend at Biden's this time around?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qu6PH9E5jiA

We could donate the winnings to the charity of the winner's choice.

I will bet that DJT wins, or is that your side, too?

[xt-tsi]

To your comment "I presumed correctly, xs-tsi, that you think it's "bad" that POTUS isn't determined by a straight popular vote? That seems a bit facetious." I'm not sure what is facetious about a popular vote for the Presidency. All other US elections are based on the popular vote. No one objects to a city mayor or state governor being elected by the popular vote.

That said, the electoral college are the rules of the game. Whatever candidate does a better job of getting out the vote in the swing states, wins. Trump did a better job in this respect in 2016 and he won. The DEMs had every chance to do the same thing. The rules are the same for both sides. And usually, when one party feels like it got the short end of the stick in an election, it cries wolf about the electoral college.

I personally feel the electoral college is an antiquated, unrepresentative system and I always have. You wouldn't use a system like this to elect a mayor, governor or dog catcher in your state but it's done on a national level.

The US demographics are likely to change with more people moving to urban centers in many key red states and switching from red to blue. At that point, I believe the politics of both parties will change in support of eliminating the electoral college and switching to a popular vote. The electoral college could be ended by an initiative called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. So far 15 states and DC have signed on. Once the electoral college benefits no one, the switch to the popular vote has a high chance of taking place. At that point, the GOP will speak out in favor of a popular vote and all talk of the US being a Republic and not a Democracy will be dropped.

[xt-tsi]

The New York Times is one of the most biased newspapers in America, second only to The Washington Post. I don't believe a thing they write. 57,000 people showed up to a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, ordinary people organizing Trump rallies with boat parades, in California no less Trump rallies are popping up with thousands of people taking part. There was one in Beverly Hills! People are flipping their vote! The number one search on Google after the last debate was "How can I change my vote" the same thing happened after the oh so wise and all knowing people at Twitter banned The New York Post article about Hunter Biden. Look geeks might know how to make something on the internet that fools you and gets you addicted to it but they are dumb when it comes to real life. People care about money, the economy and having a job that makes them enough money to have a little enjoyment in life. Most people are tired of the corrupt politicians that lie and do nothing but make rich people richer. This is why Trump was elected in the first place. The Democrats and their pay master's are so arrogant that they think that they still have the power to get anyone elected. I don't think they learned anything from the last election, first they picked Joe Biden???? The guy that lost the last two times he ran because he got caught lying and plagiarized his speeches. He even got caught doing that in college where he finished at the bottom of his class. The biggest thing to worry about is the mainstream media and Democrats are setting up a coup. They keep reporting that Trump won't step down if he loses and the Democrats have already hired an army of lawyers to fight a Trump victory. This is going to be a long and drawn out election.

I think you missed my point.

[TolkoRaz]

My bet is that we won't know the final results for several weeks and if they are close (or in favor of Biden by a few votes), Trump and the GOP will contest them. There will be a dispute, taking the matter to Congress and possibly the Supreme Court. Lawyers for Trump and Biden are feverishly preparing for this eventuality.

An equally important issue is the makeup of the Senate in deciding the outcome. My prediction is that the GOP will retain its very small majority. The House will go to the Democrats by an increased majority.

With the Senate having a small majority and the Supreme Court a majority of conservative judges, the election results will be decided in favor of Trump.

Quite possible, but if so, this would be yet more confirmation that the political system and process is wholly corrupt and broken.

I wonder how the losing 'side' would react in this situation?

In the interests of stability, lets hope for a clear majority for either side.

[TolkoRaz]

Despite all of this discussion, when will the Globe know if there is a clear winner determined this week?

[Hans.KK]

Despite all of this discussion, when will the Globe know if there is a clear winner determined this week?

It will depend a lot on how close the race is, if around 50/50 it will take a lot of time, 40/60 then one/two weeks from now.

[FatAndy]

as i quoted Stalin - it doesn't matter who and how it is being voted, but who and how the votes are being counted....

You quoted Napoleon III-rd.

[xt-tsi]

Despite all of this discussion, when will the Globe know if there is a clear winner determined this week?

If all the swing states that Trump won in 2016 go to either Biden or Trump (Arizona, Iowa, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, NC, Florida) either candidate will win with over 200 electoral college votes with less than 150 going to the loser. In this scenario it will be over with quickly.

However, the candidates are close in each one of these states. The polls show Biden ahead but the polls were wrong in 2016 and again in 2018. So, the polls are BS. Expect a massive GOP turnout on election day. Expect a huge blue turnout as well.

If Trump gets all the SE states and Pennsylvania with Arizona and Michigan going to Biden, it will be neck and neck, close to a tie. Then, it will take longer for the results to be finalized and the outcome will almost certainly be contested. The outcome might not be known until the end of the year. The US endless soap opera might sadly torture the entire globe for a long time.