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Thread: Collapse of the Russian economy

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    Collapse of the Russian economy

    The tourist industry seems to lie in tatters, with 10+ leading companies ruined, the car sales are down up to 30% in comparison with the last year for some brands, investments are flowing out of the country in a huge river rapidly becoming an ocean. What Russian industry will be crushed next, your forecast? I think it will be the residential construction sector.

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    Economics are a complicated business, a few sectors got slammed hard but overall there is a huge delay between the paper figures and things getting noticeably worse on the street.

    It's not unreasonable to expect that within 6 months or so most of the sanctions will be dropped and the economic "collapse" will largely be avoided.

    Of course, stagnation was already an issue before the Ukraine mess started. Russia has a poor business/investment climate in general, and the powers that be don't seem to be as concerned with that as they are with other things. So while I think actual collapse is unlikely, I also don't think Russia is going to have much meaningful growth for a while.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JanC View Post
    Economics are a complicated business, a few sectors got slammed hard but overall there is a huge delay between the paper figures and things getting noticeably worse on the street.

    It's not unreasonable to expect that within 6 months or so most of the sanctions will be dropped and the economic "collapse" will largely be avoided.

    Of course, stagnation was already an issue before the Ukraine mess started. Russia has a poor business/investment climate in general, and the powers that be don't seem to be as concerned with that as they are with other things. So while I think actual collapse is unlikely, I also don't think Russia is going to have much meaningful growth for a while.
    Agreed.
    And those imposing the economic sanctions do not want and are not planing economic destruction of Russia. This would be a dangerous scenario with possible military reprecussions and a knock on effect to other economies.

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    And those imposing the economic sanctions do not want and are not planing economic destruction of Russia. This would be a dangerous scenario with possible military reprecussions and a knock on effect to other economies.
    The Soviet economy collapsed, most of us survived... I agree that there will not be complete collapse though, like completely empty shelves, it is not needed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
    The Soviet economy collapsed, most of us survived...
    Different scenario. The Soviet economy collapsed because it was inefficient and the Russian economy was not part of the world economy.
    The Russian people themselves wanted change. That's not the case this time around.

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    Different scenario. The Soviet economy collapsed because it was inefficient. The Russian people themselves wanted change. That's not the case this time around.
    Sure it is different, that's what I said, - it doesn't and will not be the same. You also have to bear in mind that the modern Russians adore consuming, the Soviets didn't have this essential weakness.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
    The tourist industry seems to lie in tatters, with 10+ leading companies ruined, the car sales are down up to 30% in comparison with the last year for some brands, investments are flowing out of the country in a huge river rapidly becoming an ocean. What Russian industry will be crushed next, your forecast? I think it will be the residential construction sector.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
    Sure it is different, that's what I said, - it doesn't and will not be the same. You also have to bear in mind that the modern Russians adore consuming, the Soviets didn't have this essential weakness.
    The last thing Europe needs is a Russian crisis. My guess is the EU will do all it can to avoid one if and when the time comes.

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    The last thing Europe needs is a Russian crisis.
    Well, but I think Russia and the Russians need it. The society has jumped off a high hill and needs a thorough thrashing, imho. You are not Russian, you don't feel and see all the vibes and undercurrents. Whenever I switch on a mainstream TV channel, it is like opening a Goebbels book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
    Well, but I think Russia and the Russians need it. The society has jumped off a high hill and needs a thorough thrashing, imho. You are not Russian, you don't feel and see all the vibes and undercurrents. Whenever I switch on a mainstream TV channel, it is like opening a Goebbels book.
    The world needs it. I'm no fan of Putin or his expansionist policies but how we can all get rid of him safely is conundrum.

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    well, change begun already...

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...an/506748.html

    hopefully je also will get a judge who will rule by the law books, and is not being cowed by politics. or influenced by greed, graft and bribes. will be interesting to see the outcome.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
    The tourist industry seems to lie in tatters, with 10+ leading companies ruined, the car sales are down up to 30% in comparison with the last year for some brands, investments are flowing out of the country in a huge river rapidly becoming an ocean. What Russian industry will be crushed next, your forecast? I think it will be the residential construction sector.
    Everyone will suffer from AIDS, the moon will crash into the earth, God will smite Russia with a dozen asteroids, the sun will not shine over Russia, all the food will be poisoned, the Kremlin will be attacked by dinosaurs...

    Cwazy wabbit, what didja expect in the Donb**** a HAPPY ending?
    Last edited by Fantastika; 10-09-2014 at 07:39.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JanC View Post
    Of course, stagnation was already an issue before the Ukraine mess started. Russia has a poor business/investment climate in general,...
    Yeah, stagnation, in Western Europe, has been a problem for 10 years now. I guess we can make a correlation: more bureaucracy = higher taxes = more stagnation. No wonder Scotland wants to say до свидания.
    Last edited by Fantastika; 10-09-2014 at 07:41.

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