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fenrir
11-02-2015, 22:55
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-oil-industry-getting-crushed-170100374.html

Another in a long list of bad signs.

Russian Lad
11-02-2015, 23:09
It cannot be true! You are lying to us! We don't want to hear it! Restaurants are full of laughing people! It is raining in California! Dollar will be banned soon and everyone will switch to the gold standard! Stop whining all the time!

rumple_stilskin
12-02-2015, 00:06
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-oil-industry-getting-crushed-170100374.html

Another in a long list of bad signs.

There is something really funny about this story.

I remember the banking sanctions on Iran actually did Iran a favor. When western countries banned credit to Iran, Iran's banks could not get finance. But when the financial crisis hit in 2008, Iran sailed through the crisis unscathed as they had not been subjected to reckless lending.

So when the west restricted credit to Russian oil companies, those Russian oil companies must have started to put new projects on hold. This was three months before the oil price plunged.

So, as it turned out, those sanctions actually did Russian oil companies a favor as it stopped them investing in projects that would have been deemed loss makers just three months later.

Western oil companies must be envious of Russian oil companies, they too wish they could have stopped new projects three months earlier as well. Sanctions would have been a blessing to them.

A crystal ball could not have done better. Well done Russia!!!

AstarD
12-02-2015, 00:10
There is something really funny about this story.

I remember the banking sanctions on Iran actually did Iran a favor. When western countries banned credit to Iran, Iran's banks could not get finance. But when the financial crisis hit in 2008, Iran sailed through the crisis unscathed as they had not been subjected to reckless lending.

So when the west restricted credit to Russian oil companies, those Russian oil companies must have started to put new projects on hold. This was three months before the oil price plunged.

So, as it turned out, those sanctions actually did Russian oil companies a favor as it stopped then investing in projects that would have been deemed loss makers just three months later.

Western oil companies must be envious of Russian oil companies, they too wish they could have stopped new projects three months earlier as well. Sanctions would have been a blessing to them.

A crystal ball could not have done better. Well done Russia!!!Hahahahahaha.

Uncle Wally
12-02-2015, 00:34
It cannot be true! You are lying to us! We don't want to hear it! Restaurants are full of laughing people! It is raining in California! Dollar will be banned soon and everyone will switch to the gold standard! Stop whining all the time!



Actually there is a big fire in California. They could use some rain.

AstarD
12-02-2015, 00:39
Actually there is a big fire in California. They could use some rain.California is always on fire.

Russian Lad
12-02-2015, 01:26
Well, we had one funny episode regarding this at a company I worked for. It was dinner time, people discussed weather for a while, then they began discussing technical details of a project. An Indian American, who was an old engineer, sort of senile even, goes all of a sudden:"It is raining in California now!" Everyone stops and just stares at him, trying not to laugh.

Uncle Wally
12-02-2015, 02:18
Well, we had one funny episode regarding this at a company I worked for. It was dinner time, people discussed weather for a while, then they began discussing technical details of a project. An Indian American, who was an old engineer, sort of senile even, goes all of a sudden:"It is raining in California now!" Everyone stops and just stares at him, trying not to laugh.



Yeah my grandmother would come out with some zingers like that. We would laugh though because she'd just forget we laugh at her 10 minutes later.

Tzushima
12-02-2015, 03:19
But when the financial crisis hit in 2008, Iran sailed through the crisis unscathed
because the body was already buried?

Uncle Wally
12-02-2015, 12:13
because the body was already buried?



No, because sanctions didn't allow them to go into debt. Unlike friendly countries that are allowed to then when they can't pay the juiciest parts are sold off for pennies on the dollar. See Greek debt.

Tzushima
12-02-2015, 12:17
No, because sanctions didn't allow them to go into debt. Unlike friendly countries that are allowed to then when they can't pay the juiciest parts are sold off for pennies on the dollar. See Greek debt.

some countries want access to credit

credit seems more like a tool than a problem, if misused, like a chainsaw, it can be lethal.

Uncle Wally
12-02-2015, 12:35
some countries want access to credit

credit seems more like a tool than a problem, if misused, like a chainsaw, it can be lethal.



It's killing many countries right now. It's used as a tool of destruction and theft.

Don't have time to go into it but it's better not to use this tool and just save and wait until you can afford it.

Tzushima
12-02-2015, 12:39
Don't have time to go into it.
lies

AstarD
12-02-2015, 12:44
liesas usual.

Armoured
12-02-2015, 13:03
So when the west restricted credit to Russian oil companies, those Russian oil companies must have started to put new projects on hold. This was three months before the oil price plunged.

So, as it turned out, those sanctions actually did Russian oil companies a favor as it stopped them investing in projects that would have been deemed loss makers just three months later.

There's some truth to this, except that it misses the point that many of those projects were stupid _before_ the oil price crash.

Not to mention the various non-oil wings like media, banking, and on and on.

They were wasting money well before the price of oil fell.


Western oil companies must be envious of Russian oil companies, they too wish they could have stopped new projects three months earlier as well. Sanctions would have been a blessing to them.

Ah but if you look at the actual financial data, Russian oil companies - Rosneft in particular - are amongst the world's most heavily indebted.

Mainly because it paid a high price at peak to buy TNK-BP. Massively enriching Fridman and company at the expense of the taxpayer (ultimately).


Well done Russia!!!

Which we could just substitute here with "Screw you, taxpayer!"

Uncle Wally
12-02-2015, 14:07
There's some truth to this, except that it misses the point that many of those projects were stupid _before_ the oil price crash.

Not to mention the various non-oil wings like media, banking, and on and on.

They were wasting money well before the price of oil fell.



Ah but if you look at the actual financial data, Russian oil companies - Rosneft in particular - are amongst the world's most heavily indebted.

Mainly because it paid a high price at peak to buy TNK-BP. Massively enriching Fridman and company at the expense of the taxpayer (ultimately).



Which we could just substitute here with "Screw you, taxpayer!"




And if you read the news you would know that Rosneft is paying off it's debt. There is some problem with that.

fenrir
14-02-2015, 11:05
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-oil-giant-rosneft-to-slash-spending-by-30/515919.html

This is an ominous sign. Let's see how they handle their enormous debt.

Nobbynumbnuts
14-02-2015, 12:01
......Let's see how they handle their enormous debt.

I'll put them in touch with Wally. He'll have a simple solution.....;) :D

Judge
14-02-2015, 13:29
Fitch Ratings is confident that Rosneft - along with other Russian energy giants, Gazprom, Transneft, and Lukoil won’t have any problem paying off the massive debts.
http://rt.com/business/231707-rosneft-debt-payment-7-billion/

Even American rating agency say they won't be a problem.

Armoured
14-02-2015, 16:39
Fitch Ratings is confident that Rosneft - along with other Russian energy giants, Gazprom, Transneft, and Lukoil won’t have any problem paying off the massive debts.

I don't think anyone claimed they wouldn't be able to pay their debts - but that because Rosneft and Gazprom had a lot of debt, they would face serious constraints on what they can do (i.e. will have to cut investments). That is happening - period - as shown by this.

And further, that this would impair future production - because they're not investing now. Since Rosneft has announced it is reducing investments, it's not illogical.

Saying "but they're not bankrupt" is an empty response to that point.

Leaving aside, of course, whether Rosneft needed Central Bank / government help to get the dollars together, or whether that deal hit the ruble.

Lukoil has very little risk of not paying because it has only a modest amount of debt. Either $10 or $13 billion compared to annual _profits_ of about $10 billion (revenue well over $100). For comparison, Rosneft's debt was about $65 billion against profits of about $12 billion / revenue of maybe $125 billion. (Plus Rosneft has a 900 billion - ruble plus 'prepayment for long term supply - i.e. Chinese debt - I didn't include in this figure).

These are my very rough estimates based on 9-month financials and about 33 rubles/dollar, and before Rosneft's recent payments. Again, I'm not saying Rosneft can't meet its bills - but that it's a _lot_ more debt than comparable oil companies, at about the worst possible time.

Oh, and Lukoil had a nice conservative cash position (hence my note about debt) - it had cash on hand to pay basically all its debt for the next year. Rosneft? Well, it's hard to say in great detail, but much less cash on hand than pending debt payments and other aggressive positioning for current assets/liabilities. The gap at 9-months could have been between 200 and 400 billion rubles depending on some other stuff like taxes.

So Rosneft probably was close to having a short-term liquidity squeeze. Probably woulnd't have defaulted, but if it had had to borrow at commercial terms (instead of central bank sweetheart rate), would have cost a _lot_ of money.

Screw you, taxpayer!

Armoured
14-02-2015, 16:54
[As a note to my above, Rosneft reports in rubles, Lukoil in dollars, and any inconsistencies above are because I was just estimating the dollar amounts. But most of Rosneft's debts would be in dollars and I was too lazy to look up the right exchange rate]

Judge
14-02-2015, 17:28
Of course it's not the best of times for any Russian company to have a huge debt in $ /€, but it's manageable and the top state oil companies shouldn't have a problem..
Its also no-brainer why oil firms are cutting investments, it's not only Russian firms but also many western oil drillers ,good and bad news all round,good for the environment and also a chance for pushing up the price of oil cos less drilling in the future,bad news for workers, 1000 s of workers out if work.

Rosneft has one of the lowest costs of getting a barrel of oil, something like $4,could be mistaken of that number but it's low,so at around $60 they are still doing good..and according to Sechin,Rosneft 2015 budget is based on $50 per barrel.

Judge
14-02-2015, 17:55
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-oil-giant-rosneft-to-slash-spending-by-30/515919.html

This is an ominous sign. Let's see how they handle their enormous debt.

Do you think only Russian drillers are making cuts?
here's news about other top drillers,


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/01/bp-cost-cutting-jobs-oil-price

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/30/investing/chevron-earnings-oil-fall/

And BP was even pleased with its business with Rosneft,

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0L70HM20150203?irpc=932

fenrir
14-02-2015, 18:48
Of course it's not the best of times for any Russian company to have a huge debt in $ /€, but it's manageable and the top state oil companies shouldn't have a problem..
Its also no-brainer why oil firms are cutting investments, it's not only Russian firms but also many western oil drillers ,good and bad news all round,good for the environment and also a chance for pushing up the price of oil cos less drilling in the future,bad news for workers, 1000 s of workers out if work.

Rosneft has one of the lowest costs of getting a barrel of oil, something like $4,could be mistaken of that number but it's low,so at around $60 they are still doing good..and according to Sechin,Rosneft 2015 budget is based on $50 per barrel.

file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/User/My%20Documents/Downloads/Ref_sample_ENG.pdf

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/26/russias-oil-fire-292090.html

These two sources put the Russian cost of production of a barrel of oil a lot higher than what you stated.

Judge
14-02-2015, 19:14
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/User/My%20Documents/Downloads/Ref_sample_ENG.pdf

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/26/russias-oil-fire-292090.html

These two sources put the Russian cost of production of a barrel of oil a lot higher than what you stated.

That's Russian cost,let's stick to Rosneft alone,I read somewhere that it's very low,there's is lifting and finding cost,which are the total up stream cost,it makes for an interesting read,it's all news to me,I'll try and find what Rosneft's upstream cost is,it really goes to show how much these oil drillers make....
Don't get me wrong,I ain't no fan of any of these drilling firms, I much prefer a nice clean environment, fingers crossed with the recent crisis in the oil industry there will be a slowdown in Arctic drilling..

Russian Lad
14-02-2015, 19:18
Oil drilling cost in Russia is probably the highest in the whole world. Why? A lot of old fields, especially in the West Siberia, are almost depleted and lacking investments, new ones are scarce, and now it is close to impossible to open up the new ones because there is no effective access to the Western equipment and financing.
The quality of oil itself in most cases is below average.
Add to this utterly ineffective management and lack of the most primitive labor standards.


fingers crossed with the recent crisis in the oil industry there will be a slowdown in Arctic drilling..

You don't need to cross your fingers for this, it is a fait accompli. Be careful with your wishes though. By the way, you probably don't know it, but the cost of the Russian gas is tied to the cost of oil. Oil prices go down - gas prices for the end consumers in Europe go down as well - not intantly, within 6-9 months, according to contracts. Europe will be getting cheap gas from Russia soon - down in price by at least 120 dollars.

Judge
14-02-2015, 19:47
Found some info on lifting costs for Rosneft,



In comparison, the lifting cost of some new conventional oil projects in Russia exceeds $10/b, while average lifting costs are much lower and stood at below $3/b for Rosneft and $5/b for Lukoil, according to Q2 financial reports of the two biggest oil producers in Russia.

http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2012/oil/russianoil/index

Uncle Wally
14-02-2015, 23:17
Rosneft is still in business while some American companies are not.

All this lack of investment will do is lower yields and push up prices later.

fenrir
14-02-2015, 23:31
Rosneft is still in business while some American companies are not.

All this lack of investment will do is lower yields and push up prices later.

Yeah, Joe's Corner Shop in Cleveland closed down. So what? What does that have to do with large oil companies, the price of oil extraction and Rosneft's ability to pay off its debts?

fenrir
14-02-2015, 23:32
All this lack of investment will do is lower yields and push up prices later.

That would only be true if Russia were the world's only oil producer but there are so many others out there.

Uncle Wally
14-02-2015, 23:54
That would only be true if Russia were the world's only oil producer but there are so many others out there.



Yes and they all have to deal with low prices. Maybe Saudi Arabia can deal with it but they too are spending their dollar reserves. Nobody is investing in new wells.

Russian Lad
15-02-2015, 04:11
Nobody is investing in new wells.

Just like that - nobody? Source? The bottom of a vodka bottle? :9456:

Judge
15-02-2015, 09:22
Rosneft is still in business while some American companies are not.

All this lack of investment will do is lower yields and push up prices later.

Slightly old news but US rig counts are still decreasing,


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-us-oil-rigs-operation-184616613.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-16/drillers-idle-55-oil-rigs-pushing-six-week-drop-to-209

but the US is still pumping record amounts of oil,for now.


Mass unemployment coming soon,maybe.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/22/news/economy/oil-boomtown-layoffs/index.html?iid=EL

This is not to point the finger just at the US,cuts in investments and job loss could also be seen in Russia..

Judge
15-02-2015, 09:54
Oil drilling cost in Russia is probably the highest in the whole world. Why? A lot of old fields, especially in the West Siberia, are almost depleted and lacking investments, new ones are scarce, and now it is close to impossible to open up the new ones because there is no effective access to the Western equipment and financing.
The quality of oil itself in most cases is below average.
Add to this utterly ineffective management and lack of the most primitive labor standards.



You don't need to cross your fingers for this, it is a fait accompli. Be careful with your wishes though. By the way, you probably don't know it, but the cost of the Russian gas is tied to the cost of oil. Oil prices go down - gas prices for the end consumers in Europe go down as well - not intantly, within 6-9 months, according to contracts. Europe will be getting cheap gas from Russia soon - down in price by at least 120 dollars.

You make it sound like your country is a new player in the oil and gas business..

http://rt.com/business/232099-gazprom-cheaper-gas-europe/

Uncle Wally
15-02-2015, 10:12
Slightly old news but US rig counts are still decreasing,


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-us-oil-rigs-operation-184616613.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-16/drillers-idle-55-oil-rigs-pushing-six-week-drop-to-209

but the US is still pumping record amounts of oil,for now.


Mass unemployment coming soon,maybe.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/22/news/economy/oil-boomtown-layoffs/index.html?iid=EL

This is not to point the finger just at the US,cuts in investments and job loss could also be seen in Russia..




Yes Russian oil companies won't be investing in new production but I don't think anyone else will either. Without big profits why would they?

Judge
15-02-2015, 10:31
Yes Russian oil companies won't be investing in new production but I don't think anyone else will either. Without big profits why would they?

And the knock on effect when companies start laying off workers,company debts to be paid off and loans workers took out,yes like Rosneft, but it's state owned and can always seek help unlike private companies.
In the US there's been an employment boom recently and that boom is mostly thanks to the oil and gas industry .

Uncle Wally
15-02-2015, 10:46
And the knock on effect when companies start laying off workers,company debts to be paid off and loans workers took out,yes like Rosneft, but it's state owned and can always seek help unlike private companies.
In the US there's been an employment boom recently and that boom is mostly thanks to the oil and gas industry .



Yes that's true, all the oil service companies are laying off people. I heard one problem is that many companies have long term leases for equipment and even if they're not working still have to pay.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-02-2015, 14:48
And the knock on effect when companies start laying off workers,company debts to be paid off and loans workers took out,yes like Rosneft, but it's state owned and can always seek help unlike private companies.
In the US there's been an employment boom recently and that boom is mostly thanks to the oil and gas industry .

When private companies run into trouble they are often taken over by other private companies, which means taxpayer's money is not spent (risked) and can therefor be used in other areas.

Judge
15-02-2015, 15:55
When private companies run into trouble they are often taken over by other private companies, which means taxpayer's money is not spent (risked) and can therefor be used in other areas.

Agree, that's how it usually is,taken over or bust, capitalism at work,unlike what happened with the banks.:)

Don't forget when companies are taken over,more often than not,workers get the sack.

Judge
15-02-2015, 16:01
If the situation in Libya goes further south we could see the price of oil rise..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-14/libya-warns-of-complete-oil-shutdown-amid-escalation-of-violence

Judge
15-02-2015, 16:10
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-oil-giant-rosneft-to-slash-spending-by-30/515919.html

This is an ominous sign. Let's see how they handle their enormous debt.


Quoting you again, but you did ask how they are managing their debt,found this article,
It does sound desperate on Rosneft's part,but the debt is being paid off.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/rosneft-oil-deal-with-swiss-company-2015-2

Nobbynumbnuts
15-02-2015, 17:25
Agree, that's how it usually is,taken over or bust, capitalism at work,unlike what happened with the banks.:)

Don't forget when companies are taken over,more often than not,workers get the sack.

We keep going round in circles with this. A collapse of the banking system cannot be allowed to happen. Have you thought of the consequences for everyone?
And banks are allowed to fail, if they are thought not to be a threat to the overall system...

Judge
15-02-2015, 18:09
We keep going round in circles with this. A collapse of the banking system cannot be allowed to happen. Have you thought of the consequences for everyone?
And banks are allowed to fail, if they are thought not to be a threat to the overall system...

Who said a total collapse,just the banks that went bust,don't forget it was their own doing,basically you (not you personally )are rewarding bad,corrupt behaviour.
Let the system take its course like you suggest, get taken over or bust.

Maybe the the UK oil industry might need state help soon,what you say to that,let 1000s lose their jobs or cut taxes for drillers...

Nobbynumbnuts
15-02-2015, 19:19
Who said a total collapse,just the banks that went bust,don't forget it was their own doing,basically you (not you personally )are rewarding bad,corrupt behaviour.
Let the system take its course like you suggest, get taken over or bust.

Maybe the the UK oil industry might need state help soon,what you say to that,let 1000s lose their jobs or cut taxes for drillers...

How do you think major high street banks go bust in a financial crisis without the very real possibility the whole banking system going down as well?
At the first sign a bank is in trouble people start cueing outside for their money. This soon spreads to other banks and financial institutions. Banks stop lending money, people and business stop paying back their mortgages and loans. People sart hoarding food, medicines, petrol and very quickly the country resembles one of those catastrophe movies from Hollywood with a breakdown in law and order.
This scenario was very close at hand in autumn '08

If the UK oil industry finds it's self in severe difficulties then the government needs to asses it's wider impact on the economy if it's allowed to go under. Governments step and try to negotiate a buyer for very large companies. Many other things they can do as well before simply bailing or just allowing them to go to the wall but they take time. Time we all didn't have with the banks in 2008

Judge
15-02-2015, 20:54
How do you think major high street banks go bust in a financial crisis without the very real possibility the whole banking system going down as well?
At the first sign a bank is in trouble people start cueing outside for their money. This soon spreads to other banks and financial institutions. Banks stop lending money, people and business stop paying back their mortgages and loans. People sart hoarding food, medicines, petrol and very quickly the country resembles one of those catastrophe movies from Hollywood with a breakdown in law and order.
This scenario was very close at hand in autumn '08

Me thinks you have been watching too many films,that's scaremongering ,just like what the bank bosses wanted all to believe .We are left with a too big to fail culture, " permanent bailout state "....I know the situation back in 2008 was dire,but the banks should have paid an heavier price for what they did...



If the UK oil industry finds it's self in severe difficulties then the government needs to asses it's wider impact on the economy if it's allowed to go under. Governments step and try to negotiate a buyer for very large companies. Many other things they can do as well before simply bailing or just allowing them to go to the wall but they take time. Time we all didn't have with the banks in 2008


Didn't I tell you the Scots were best to stay in the union:thumbsup:

tonytony
15-02-2015, 21:04
Quoting you again, but you did ask how they are managing their debt,found this article,
It does sound desperate on Rosneft's part,but the debt is being paid off.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/rosneft-oil-deal-with-swiss-company-2015-2


I got as far as reading the second paragraph of that article and saw the name Trafigura. I immediately thought that Rosneft must be really desperate to be dealing with a company like them.

Anyone who was living in the UK five years ago will know the phrase ''super-injunction'' and all the media attention this got at the time.

It came about as Trafigura managed to get a court order that meant that papers and TV stations were not allowed to report that a question had been asked in parliament about Trafigura's activities and they were not even allowed to report that an injunction had been granted preventing them reporting on Trafigura's activities. Hence the term super-injunction.

It was only after lots of bloggers and people tweeting the information that Trafigura relented. Here is a report from the time:-

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/16/trafigura-carter-ruck-the-guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/libertycentral/2009/oct/14/trafigura-fiasco-tears-up-textbook

Nobbynumbnuts
15-02-2015, 21:12
Me thinks you have been watching too many films,that's scaremongering ,just like what the bank bosses wanted all to believe .We are left with a too big to fail culture, " permanent bailout state "....I know the situation back in 2008 was dire,but the banks should have paid an heavier price for what they did...





Didn't I tell you the Scots were best to stay in the union:thumbsup:

Judge, your being extremely naive. Tell me what you would do if the high street bank next to yours went under during a financial crisis with people queuing in the street to get their money back.
What do you think will happen when banks go under? People write to the manager politely asking when they can withdraw their money?? ATM's will not be working, how many people have enough cash on them to last a week let alone a couple of days, families have got to be fed..
The only reason it didn't happen is because governments took swift action and guaranteed bank deposits, pumped liquidity into the system and stood behind the banks.

Remember, the crisis in 2008 was ultimately brought about by the collapse of one bank, Lehman Bros. Many commentators have said if the US government had bailed Lehman the crisis would have been averted.

Perhaps your suggesting capitalism doesn't work? Well, obviously it's not perfect but no one has come up with a better system. What do you suggest?

Banks and bankers should have paid a heavier price? You'll get no argument from me but does that mean everyone in the country looses their livelihood as a result?

Judge
15-02-2015, 21:41
Judge, your being extremely naive. Tell me what you would do if the high street bank next to yours went under during a financial crisis with people queuing in the street to get their money back.
What do you think will happen when banks go under? People write to the manager politely asking when they can withdraw their money??
The only reason it didn't happen is because governments took swift action and guaranteed bank deposits, pumped liquidity into the system and stood behind the banks.

Perhaps your suggesting capitalism doesn't work? Well, obviously it's not perfect but none has come up with a better system. What do you suggest?

Banks and bankers should have paid a heavier price? You'll get no argument from me but does that mean everyone in the country looses their livelihood as a result?


I wouldn't worry cos there is "Deposit Guarantee",will get my money back from the government..you know eggs and baskets. ..
I'm not suggesting this system doesn't work, just for it to run fair, it works well for some but stinks for many.If you want this system to work you gotta let it run its course,by interfering like they did we are stuck in a whirlpool of debt,with no end in sight,most probably one big crash on the horizon.This can be seen in some EU countries,house of cards ready to crash and all because of reckless lending.
Not everyone would have lost their livelihood, only the one's who created this mess,we can only speculate ..
What you don't seem to realize is that the mess the world economy is in now is cos of the actions taken in 2008...Even to this day,many are losing their livelihoods as we speak.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-02-2015, 23:38
I wouldn't worry cos there is "Deposit Guarantee",will get my money back from the government..you know eggs and baskets. ..
I'm not suggesting this system doesn't work, just for it to run fair, it works well for some but stinks for many.If you want this system to work you gotta let it run its course,by interfering like they did we are stuck in a whirlpool of debt,with no end in sight,most probably one big crash on the horizon.This can be seen in some EU countries,house of cards ready to crash and all because of reckless lending.
Not everyone would have lost their livelihood, only the one's who created this mess,we can only speculate ..
What you don't seem to realize is that the mess the world economy is in now is cos of the actions taken in 2008...Even to this day,many are losing their livelihoods as we speak.

It's not speculation. Why is it so difficult to understand that allowing major banks to go under wouldn't end in complete catastrophe? Who doesn't have a bank account these days? Practically everyone gets paid into a bank account. How much cash do you have in your pocket? 100 bucks-maybe 200 bucks? (equivalent) Once that's gone and you've eaten everything in the house you're beginning to starve. Deeds to property, pensions, insurance the list goes on and on.
The exact sequence of events are impossible to predict but that doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.

The banking system is based on confidence. If it takes the government to guarantee all bank deposits to stop a run, then so be it. Wether they will or can is immaterial.

The situation in Europe is regrettable but it's a drop in the ocean to what would happen if the banks went under and countries like Greece defaulted. That's why they haven't..

Only the ones who created this mess would suffer? How are you going to ensure that?

Uncle Wally
16-02-2015, 01:02
How do you think major high street banks go bust in a financial crisis without the very real possibility the whole banking system going down as well?
At the first sign a bank is in trouble people start cueing outside for their money. This soon spreads to other banks and financial institutions. Banks stop lending money, people and business stop paying back their mortgages and loans. People sart hoarding food, medicines, petrol and very quickly the country resembles one of those catastrophe movies from Hollywood with a breakdown in law and order.
This scenario was very close at hand in autumn '08

If the UK oil industry finds it's self in severe difficulties then the government needs to asses it's wider impact on the economy if it's allowed to go under. Governments step and try to negotiate a buyer for very large companies. Many other things they can do as well before simply bailing or just allowing them to go to the wall but they take time. Time we all didn't have with the banks in 2008



Yeah Mad Max that was a freakin cool movie!!!


Sadly it will only happen in Australia or America. If the government took care of the problem in 2008 we wouldn't be worried now would we? Oh no! Bail out the banks that got us in this mess, then have bigger banks just make it freaking worse! Why don't we start some freaking f@aking war to take our minds off it and give us something to do!


You know there was a time when you could just grow some food and live your life but groups off people would come along and steal you food and rape your wife so we made government. Now they won't let you grow food and your wife has to prostitute herself to live. And they call that "progress".

Uncle Wally
16-02-2015, 01:20
It's not speculation. Why is it so difficult to understand that allowing major banks to go under wouldn't end in complete catastrophe? Who doesn't have a bank account these days? Practically everyone gets paid into a bank account. How much cash do you have in your pocket? 100 bucks-maybe 200 bucks? (equivalent) Once that's gone and you've eaten everything in the house you're beginning to starve. Deeds to property, pensions, insurance the list goes on and on.
The exact sequence of events are impossible to predict but that doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.

The banking system is based on confidence. If it takes the government to guarantee all bank deposits to stop a run, then so be it. Wether they will or can is immaterial.

The situation in Europe is regrettable but it's a drop in the ocean to what would happen if the banks went under and countries like Greece defaulted. That's why they haven't..

Only the ones who created this mess would suffer? How are you going to ensure that?


We will ensure they suffer by hanging them first.

You are such a whimp! Don't you see that it is they who made the banking system the way it is so "they" can not be held accountable?

This is Russia and I'll tell you that only fools keep money in banks. I met a woman a few weeks back and have been seeing her off and on. She works for the biggest bank in Russia at a high level. Even she says "Russians don't save" but I think she is only partly right. Russians have cash at home, buy things they could sell and have an escape plan/dacha. If you are fool enough not to have cash and some gold and thought about alternative food supply week good luck to you.

Judge
16-02-2015, 08:36
It's not speculation. Why is it so difficult to understand that allowing major banks to go under wouldn't end in complete catastrophe? Who doesn't have a bank account these days? Practically everyone gets paid into a bank account. How much cash do you have in your pocket? 100 bucks-maybe 200 bucks? (equivalent) Once that's gone and you've eaten everything in the house you're beginning to starve. Deeds to property, pensions, insurance the list goes on and on.
The exact sequence of events are impossible to predict but that doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.

The banking system is based on confidence. If it takes the government to guarantee all bank deposits to stop a run, then so be it. Wether they will or can is immaterial.

The situation in Europe is regrettable but it's a drop in the ocean to what would happen if the banks went under and countries like Greece defaulted. That's why they haven't..

Only the ones who created this mess would suffer? How are you going to ensure that?

A short ,sharp shock the system would have felt,people with savings ,most don't have much would be looked after by government guarantees, the banking system cleaned up,bankers in jail,and matter of months, okay, year and half at least all back to normal, not like we have now, huge debts for countries that are on the verge of default,austerity ripping countries and families apart,this isn't some Hollywood movie,this is reality.

Your solution is to keep on throwing money at the problem,it just creates a bigger more dangerous mess further down the line,what I'm trying to say is deal with it at that moment, not stick a plaster over a cut artery and keep on piling on plasters hoping the bleeding stops..

Countries have defaulted and come back stronger,let the Greeks default and bring back the drachma,they will suffer at first but it would not take them a decade and more to get back on their feet,let them print their own money,lower their currency ,cheap exports,2-3 years max and the Greeks will be back in real growth, don't forget they have a constant flow of tourists, charge the richer EU countries extra to enjoy the Greek sun ...;)

Judge
16-02-2015, 09:06
Rosneft CEO claims that global oil prices may reach $90 – 110 dollars per barrel in the long-term perspective if they fail to rebound to $60-80 per barrel in the nearest future and cause industry to mothball the existing production projects instead of opening new ones.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20150216/1018318182.html#ixzz3Rsx6iCAe

Nobbynumbnuts
16-02-2015, 11:26
A short ,sharp shock the system would have felt,people with savings ,most don't have much would be looked after by government guarantees, the banking system cleaned up,bankers in jail,and matter of months, okay, year and half at least all back to normal, not like we have now, huge debts for countries that are on the verge of default,austerity ripping countries and families apart,this isn't some Hollywood movie,this is reality.

Your solution is to keep on throwing money at the problem,it just creates a bigger more dangerous mess further down the line,what I'm trying to say is deal with it at that moment, not stick a plaster over a cut artery and keep on piling on plasters hoping the bleeding stops..

Countries have defaulted and come back stronger,let the Greeks default and bring back the drachma,they will suffer at first but it would not take them a decade and more to get back on their feet,let them print their own money,lower their currency ,cheap exports,2-3 years max and the Greeks will be back in real growth, don't forget they have a constant flow of tourists, charge the richer EU countries extra to enjoy the Greek sun ...;)

Judge you obviously have no pension or money in the bank, a large hoard of tinned goods buried in the garden and no family or friends. You're going to be just fine......;)

Judge
16-02-2015, 11:35
Judge you obviously have no pension or money in the bank, a large hoard of tinned goods buried in the garden and no family or friends. You're going to be just fine......;)

You're right only about the pension, I don't think I've worked in any one country I lived in long enough to get a pension,need to check one day .....you're also right about the garden, this year I plan on pickling vegetables for the winter months , well, that's my aim...

Nobbynumbnuts
16-02-2015, 11:40
You're right only about the pension, I don't think I've worked in any one country I lived in long enough to get a pension,need to check one day .....you're also right about the garden, this year I plan on pickling vegetables for the winter months , well, that's my aim...

Funnily enough, i'm in the same situation. I don't have a pension either. Never kept up with my social security payments back home in the UK. Luckily i have savings, just hope they're going to be enough!
I might end up with a vegetable garden too...........but for different reasons lol! ;)

Judge
16-02-2015, 12:06
Funnily enough, i'm in the same situation. I don't have a pension either. Never kept up with my social security payments back home in the UK. Luckily i have savings, just hope they're going to be enough!
I might end up with a vegetable garden too...........but for different reasons lol! ;)

I can see a vegetable business partnership growing here...pickled Russian dacha veg for export,I remember Vossy posting a pic of his collection,can get him involved too.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-02-2015, 12:25
I can see a vegetable business partnership growing here...pickled Russian dacha veg for export,I remember Vossy posting a pic of his collection,can get him involved too.

Was in a convenience store on Barking Rd last night. They sell imported stuff from Poland and Russia. I saw those jars of pickled veg going for 3 quid lol
Would be a good time to start export business from Russia with the low ruble..

Judge
16-02-2015, 12:38
Was in a convenience store on Barking Rd last night. They sell imported stuff from Poland and Russia. I saw those jars of pickled veg going for 3 quid lol
Would be a good time to start export business from Russia with the low ruble..

Yes,with low ruble,great time for exports,just need to get around the sanctions for the UK,will stuff suitcases full, like the wise man Del used to say,
"This time next year we'll be millionaires"

Nobbynumbnuts
16-02-2015, 12:45
Yes,with low ruble,great time for exports,just need to get around the sanctions for the UK,will stuff suitcases full, like the wise man Del used to say,
"This time next year we'll be millionaires"

Del Boy would simply steam the labels off, then get some printed over here...............Nice little earner Rodney! ;)

Uncle Wally
17-02-2015, 06:49
You're right only about the pension, I don't think I've worked in any one country I lived in long enough to get a pension,need to check one day .....you're also right about the garden, this year I plan on pickling vegetables for the winter months , well, that's my aim...



The best investment you can make for old age is children.

bydand
17-02-2015, 11:17
The best investment you can make for old age is children.

Depends on the child(ren)!

FatAndy
17-02-2015, 11:20
Depends on the child(ren)!
No, on the way how you bring them up.

Tzushima
17-02-2015, 11:31
No, on the way how you bring them up.
that still makes his point: sh!t parents still shouldn't "invest" in children.

Uncle Wally
17-02-2015, 11:52
that still makes his point: sh!t parents still shouldn't "invest" in children.



Well then I guess you better learn how to grow veggies.


You know sometimes we need a bad example for comparison.

Tzushima
17-02-2015, 11:57
Well then I guess you better learn how to grow veggies.

I didn't know child rearing was mutually exclusive with "growing veggies" lol

Uncle Wally
17-02-2015, 12:34
I didn't know child rearing was mutually exclusive with "growing veggies" lol



Ok I see you think acting like an airhead is sexy or something. Are you blond by chance?

Tzushima
17-02-2015, 12:37
Are you blond by chance?
I am a 40-something alcoholic american living in moscow:bookworm:

Uncle Wally
17-02-2015, 13:37
I am a 40-something alcoholic american living in moscow:bookworm:


I'm 52 year old might be alcoholic if I keep drinking like this but since I'm retired it won't matter much.

Tzushima
17-02-2015, 13:40
I'm 52 year old might be alcoholic if I keep drinking like this but since I'm retired it won't matter much.
all the work you do here at expat.ru and you consider yourself retired?

Uncle Wally
17-02-2015, 13:42
all the work you do here at expat.ru and you consider yourself retired?



It's a hobby.