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Fantastika
17-06-2015, 23:40
Test me and make an offer.:)

These guys need help, government spending $5 billion to make 7-8 websites.

Over-5-Billion-and-Counting-Obamacare-Websites (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/05/13/Over-5-Billion-and-Counting-Obamacare-Websites)


In order to have a battle, you need two more or less equal contestants, Russia doesn't qualify, from the economic standpoint (again, maybe you didn't read what Ulukaev said? or you assume you know more about Russia's economic development than Russia's minister of economic development?). China, that's another piece of cake, let's see how that pans out.

I wonder about that. How much is the dollar inflated, vis-a-vis other currencies, because of its unique, reserve currency status?

In Russia, a family may have a car, a big screen tv, smart phones, a nice apartment which they own, etc. In the US, the same average family has the same things. I would like to know how they calculate the wide difference in average GDP, it seems somehow artificial.

fenrir
17-06-2015, 23:41
but I have always said that it's not right for non Russians to say bad things about Russia or tell them what to do or how to feel.

So, is it wrong for non-Americans to say bad things about America or tell them what to do or how to feel?

Uncle Wally
18-06-2015, 00:36
So, is it wrong for non-Americans to say bad things about America or tell them what to do or how to feel?



Yes it is perfectly fine! Especially when America brings "democracy" to said country. America is the terror of the world and I am ashamed of my ex country and people like you.

nicklcool
18-06-2015, 00:45
Yes it is perfectly fine! Especially when America brings "democracy" to said country. America is the terror of the world and I am ashamed of my ex country and people like you.


Now, now, Wally, don't bash America too hard! Let's make a list of all the things that would still be around without America:


Nazi Germany
Axis Power Japanese
Communism in South Korea
Dying earthquake victims in Haiti
Tandy computers (ugh!)
pagers telegraphs and fax machines instead of the Internet
Family dinners
Traditional Two-Parent Heterosexual families
People dressing well in public
Prosperous, Two-Parent Homes in the African-American Community
(OK those last few are things that would have been good to keep around)


...I'll allow you to continue the list...put your thinking cap on! :trampoline:

Uncle Wally
18-06-2015, 01:02
Now, now, Wally, don't bash America too hard! Let's make a list of all the things that would still be around without America:


Nazi Germany
Axis Power Japanese
Communism in South Korea
Dying earthquake victims in Haiti
Tandy computers (ugh!)
pagers telegraphs and fax machines instead of the Internet
Family dinners
Traditional Two-Parent Heterosexual families
People dressing well in public
Prosperous, Two-Parent Homes in the African-American Community
(OK those last few are things that would have been good to keep around)


...I'll allow you to continue the list...put your thinking cap on! :trampoline:



You can take #1 of that list! Russia would have done just fine.

Haitians are still getting f@#ked just look at the work of the Clinton Foundation and the UN.

You left out fast food.

Fantastika
18-06-2015, 05:16
Haitians are still getting f@#ked just look at the work of the Clinton Foundation and the UN.


Sulphur Springs, Tampa. President Jimmy (767 Smiling Teeth) Carter, justifying his actions with accusations of preferential treatment of Cubans, opened the floodgates to Haitian and Jamaican immigration. What was Florida Redneck heaven became a dangerous, high-crime area.

fenrir
18-06-2015, 08:42
Yes it is perfectly fine! Especially when America brings "democracy" to said country. America is the terror of the world and I am ashamed of my ex country and people like you.

Of course it is for a Benedict Arnold who now gets the additional title of hypocrite added to his infernal and infamous nickname.

fenrir
18-06-2015, 08:45
You can take #1 of that list! Russia would have done just fine.

Add ignorant and uninformed to the growing list. Without any US aid to anyone in WW II (Do you know what Lend-Lease was?), Europe would have been toast. There were even Soviet historians who agreed with this assessment.

Uncle Wally
18-06-2015, 08:57
Of course it is for a Benedict Arnold who now gets the additional title of hypocrite added to his infernal and infamous nickname.



What? Being ashamed that there people as ignorant as you in America makes me a hypocrite?

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 04:01
"The only natuon that has an effective cruise missile capability is Russia."

http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/06/pentagon-building-cruise-missile-shield-defend-us-cities-russia/115723/


...This is what I mean when I say Russia is on the right track spending a larger proportion of GDP on the military. It's hard to believe that quotes like this from major US military officials would be made about a country in massive economic decline. :piano:

Russian Lad
19-06-2015, 04:51
It's hard to believe that quotes like this from major US military officials would be made about a country in massive economic decline.

USSR had a formidable army in 1989, but economically it lay in shredded tatters. Those are not two mutually exclusive eventualities.

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 09:24
"The only natuon that has an effective cruise missile capability is Russia."

http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/06/pentagon-building-cruise-missile-shield-defend-us-cities-russia/115723/


...This is what I mean when I say Russia is on the right track spending a larger proportion of GDP on the military. It's hard to believe that quotes like this from major US military officials would be made about a country in massive economic decline. :piano:


What else is Russia to do when faced with a big aggressive military knocking on the door? This military spending is helping in the short term and it's not like the US that has to go deeper in debt, Russia actually has the money.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 09:34
"The only natuon that has an effective cruise missile capability is Russia."

http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/06/pentagon-building-cruise-missile-shield-defend-us-cities-russia/115723/


...This is what I mean when I say Russia is on the right track spending a larger proportion of GDP on the military. It's hard to believe that quotes like this from major US military officials would be made about a country in massive economic decline. :piano:

This is what happens when you cherrypick a sentence and take it out of context, mixed with a lack of knowledge on the topic. The statement refers to Russia as the only potential adversary that has this capability. The US has been using cruise missiles for decades. Now we are working on the world's only cruise missile shield.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 09:37
What else is Russia to do when faced with a big aggressive military knocking on the door? This military spending is helping in the short term and it's not like the US that has to go deeper in debt, Russia actually has the money.

How is military spending helping more than spending on education, medicine, and infrastructure? That shows what you really know about economics. Military spending is a blackhole for public funds as far as economic development is concerned.

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 10:37
This is what happens when you cherrypick a sentence and take it out of context, mixed with a lack of knowledge on the topic. The statement refers to Russia as the only potential adversary that has this capability. The US has been using cruise missiles for decades. Now we are working on the world's only cruise missile shield.



Key words "working on" when Russia already has one.

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 10:41
How is military spending helping more than spending on education, medicine, and infrastructure? That shows what you really know about economics. Military spending is a blackhole for public funds as far as economic development is concerned.



They are spending on infrastructure but short term military spending is keeping some factories working. As soon as America stops the war mongering money can be used for other things.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 10:45
Key words "working on" when Russia already has one.

Russia does NOT have a cruise missile shield. No country does, yet.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 10:47
They are spending on infrastructure but short term military spending is keeping some factories working. As soon as America stops the war mongering money can be used for other things.

Infrastructure spending as well as spending on education and medicine has been cut back. The economy would be far better served if private factories were running at full capacity.

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 11:06
Russia does NOT have a cruise missile shield. No country does, yet.



Shows how much you know. It's being displayed at the Russian Army Expo.

TolkoRaz
19-06-2015, 11:12
Russia does NOT have a cruise missile shield. No country does, yet.

Really? Just one method - You can protect High Value Targets by using very powerful GPS jammers! ;)

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 11:17
Russia does NOT have a cruise missile shield. No country does, yet.

Post some easy to understand illustrations for him (pictures) :p

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 11:49
Post some easy to understand illustrations for him (pictures) :p



If you haven't heard yet Russia has developed a microwave anti missile shield the has a 10 kilometer total coverage. Like a bubble.

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 11:52
Really? Just one method - You can protect High Value Targets by using very powerful GPS jammers! ;)


He's never heard of the Iron Dome with either.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 12:04
Really? Just one method - You can protect High Value Targets by using very powerful GPS jammers! ;)

And if they have internal guidance?

fenrir
19-06-2015, 12:07
If you haven't heard yet Russia has developed a microwave anti missile shield the has a 10 kilometer total coverage. Like a bubble.

Are you kidding me? ROFL. Post your links. They will be most entertaining.

fenrir
19-06-2015, 12:08
He's never heard of the Iron Dome with either.

I have and it is an interesting system that is far, far from perfect. It also has a very major vulnerability.

rumple_stilskin
19-06-2015, 12:12
Russia does NOT have a cruise missile shield. No country does, yet.

The Russian S-400 can shoot down second rate missiles from the Zoo(USA)
Plus they are working on S-500.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 12:17
Are you kidding me? ROFL. Post your links. They will be most entertaining.

It's for knocking out drones lol :D

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 12:26
The Russian S-400 can shoot down second rate missiles from the Zoo(USA)
Plus they are working on S-500.

..It has opportunities against cruise missiles and stealth.....It has the highest hit probability against fast, manoeuvrable targets such as fighter aircraft. (WIKI)

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 12:34
Are you kidding me? ROFL. Post your links. They will be most entertaining.



Link this ��

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 12:36
BP signs new deal in Russia.

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 12:47
This is what happens when you cherrypick a sentence and take it out of context, mixed with a lack of knowledge on the topic. The statement refers to Russia as the only potential adversary that has this capability. The US has been using cruise missiles for decades. Now we are working on the world's only cruise missile shield.

Well fenrir, I didn't cherrypick the quote, the authors did: they selected it and put it in big bold font in the middle of the article. Authors usually do that for information that is a main point in the article, not for out-of-context side information. Also the article mentioned how cruise missiles were the only types of missiles to penetrate US defenses in Iraq and hit some high-value targets, so even though they're decades-old it sounds like they're still pretty strategic militarily.


How is military spending helping more than spending on education, medicine, and infrastructure? That shows what you really know about economics. Military spending is a blackhole for public funds as far as economic development is concerned.

YOu're speaking in opposite-talk. Black is white. UP is down. The "Black Hole" in the West (well USA at least) has been education and medicine. The USA spends the most per capita (or is it in total dollars) on education yet gets some of the worst results. Obamacare creates billions in new medical spending yet CBO reports show that in the near future the same proportion of people will be uninsured as before its existence (!)

Military spending is probably one of the most efficient uses of government dollars. Yes you have your bureaucracies - your Pentagons and I'm sure Russia has an analogue - but for the most part the dollars must be efficiently spent, the military must put up or shut up.

As for showing what I know about economics, tell me, why do you think none of the USA's creditors call their debts?? Are they just really polite? Do they enjoy the annual interest payments more than wanting their original capital back? Or do you now finally see the link between having the strongest military in the world and being able to borrow endlessly? The times and terminoligies may change but some of the rules of the game stay the same no matter how big the sums of money get. :hooray:

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 12:58
....As for showing what I know about economics, tell me, why do you think none of the USA's creditors call their debts?? Are they just really polite? Do they enjoy the annual interest payments more than wanting their original capital back? Or do you now finally see the link between having the strongest military in the world and being able to borrow endlessly? The times and terminoligies may change but some of the rules of the game stay the same no matter how big the sums of money get. :hooray:

Nothing really to do with military power. Japan currently stands as the worlds second largest debtor nation (%GDP) and more importantly, has no issues with it's creditors. Hardly a military giant.

The important factors are ability to repay, stable government and a clear mandate to always repay ones debts. USA fits all three.

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 13:24
The statement refers to Russia as the only potential adversary that has this capability.
:) Granit, Bazalt and Onyx ship-based ones we use since the end of 196x. Ground based - not announced, but I know that we have some very unpleasant surprises... well, for so called potential aggressors;)


..It has opportunities against cruise missiles and stealth.....It has the highest hit probability against fast, manoeuvrable targets such as fighter aircraft. (WIKI)
Did you ever read so called wiki disclaimer? :devil:

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 13:32
:) Granit, Bazalt and Onyx ship-based ones we use since the end of 196x. Ground based - not announced, but I know that we have some very unpleasant surprises... well, for so called potential aggressors;)


Did you ever read so called wiki disclaimer? :devil:

Ah, that old chestnut. Just give me the news i want to hear..lol

fenrir
19-06-2015, 13:41
The Russian S-400 can shoot down second rate missiles from the Zoo(USA)
Plus they are working on S-500.

If that were true, Russia would make a major move against the US because US nuclear missiles would be useless. The S-400 can't so Russia doesn't.

However, Russia is scared s--tless of a US anti-missile shield in Europe. Look at all the threats that come out of Moscow regarding it. The proof is in the actions.

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 13:47
Ah, that old chestnut. Just give me the news i want to hear..lol
I read different news, even fully idiotic. Don't do "projection"on me, comrade, like RL does sometimes ;)


If that were true, Russia would make a major move against the US because US nuclear missiles would be useless. The S-400 can't so Russia doesn't.
A very deep conclusion. :)


However, Russia is scared s--tless of a US anti-missile shield in Europe. Look at all the threats that come out of Moscow regarding it. The proof is in the actions.
No, we're just very peaceful and prefer to spend money more rationally. Regarding actions - again, we're very peaceful and very patient, but if the game goes too far, nobody will leave offended. :)

fenrir
19-06-2015, 13:51
Well fenrir, I didn't cherrypick the quote, the authors did: they selected it and put it in big bold font in the middle of the article. Authors usually do that for information that is a main point in the article, not for out-of-context side information. Also the article mentioned how cruise missiles were the only types of missiles to penetrate US defenses in Iraq and hit some high-value targets, so even though they're decades-old it sounds like they're still pretty strategic militarily.



YOu're speaking in opposite-talk. Black is white. UP is down. The "Black Hole" in the West (well USA at least) has been education and medicine. The USA spends the most per capita (or is it in total dollars) on education yet gets some of the worst results. Obamacare creates billions in new medical spending yet CBO reports show that in the near future the same proportion of people will be uninsured as before its existence (!)

Military spending is probably one of the most efficient uses of government dollars. Yes you have your bureaucracies - your Pentagons and I'm sure Russia has an analogue - but for the most part the dollars must be efficiently spent, the military must put up or shut up.



You did cherrypick it because you used it to imply that only Russia has cruise missile capability when the meaning of the sentence was that only Russia has that capability AGAINST the US.

Regarding the cruise missiles in Iraq, it involved only 5 missiles over a decade ago. Technology has moved along a lot since then. And it will keep moving on with the new systems talked about in your link.

Ask any reputable economist about military spending being an efficient use of government funds to stimulate the economy. You will be laughed out into the street.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 13:54
I read different news, even fully idiotic. Don't do "projection"on me, comrade, like RL does sometimes ;)....

I will do as i like...........................my f*%$*ng business! :p

Please provide a source that guarantees it's information 100% and best of luck! ;):D

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 14:01
I will do as i like...........................my f*%$*ng business! :p

Please provide a source that guarantees it's information 100% and best of luck! ;):D
No such sources, but some of them are so kind to warn about. ;) And yes, the best of luck, while now you're warned.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 14:03
No such sources, but some of them are so kind to warn about. ;) And yes, the best of luck, while now you're warned.

Exactly, no such sites exist.

Warned about what?

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 14:10
Warned about what?
About sources and disclaimers, for sure. Means - armed. ;)

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 14:15
About sources and disclaimers, for sure. Means - armed. ;)

This i know. Trouble is no site is 100% guaranteed for info. Even manufacturers own websites.

Bought a car once, manufacturers specs. 1 liter p.15 km, yeah right! ;)

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 14:16
Trouble is no site is 100% guaranteed for info.
Welcome to the exciting world of infowars, Neo... ;)


Bought a car once, manufacturers specs. 1 liter p.15 km, yeah right! ;)
The comma (or period) was lost... :suspect:

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 15:45
Kiev says it will pay 75 million on the 3 billion dollars of Russian debt by June 22.

Russian Lad
19-06-2015, 16:01
73.333 mln.:) So, the Yukos debt will be a bit smaller, it is good news.:cool:

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 16:21
Ask any reputable economist about military spending being an efficient use of government funds to stimulate the economy. You will be laughed out into the street.

I think the economic results after all of the various government stimulus spending throughout the world since the 08 crisis speak to how well government funds can stimulate the economy...it has been free (0% interest) to borrow money for how long in the USA? And what economic boost is there to show for it?? The whole Keynesian theory that government subsidies can boost demand and economic output in general is on its last legs if not down for the count after this weak global "recovery" following the crisis. ...but perhaps this is all too theoretical and analytical.

My point about the increased military spending was not that it boosts the economy, but that it would be hard to argue that a nation in economic decline would be able/willing to spend so much on its military. :bash:

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 16:25
Nothing really to do with military power. Japan currently stands as the worlds second largest debtor nation (%GDP) and more importantly, has no issues with it's creditors. Hardly a military giant.

The important factors are ability to repay, stable government and a clear mandate to always repay ones debts. USA fits all three.


Well, yes, Nobby, in a gentleman's world with suits and ties and John Kerry in knee high socks and short suit pant legs, yes, this is true.
But it's hard to avoid our animal, survival-of-the-fittest instincts. And so it's hard to believe that military might plays only a small role in the borrowing capabilities of a country.
And also if we doubt how large a role blood and bullets and the military play in the strength of a nation, sadly we need not look any further than ISIS/ISIL. :(

AstarD
19-06-2015, 16:29
I think the economic results after all of the various government stimulus spending throughout the world since the 08 crisis speak to how well government funds can stimulate the economy...it has been free (0% interest) to borrow money for how long in the USA? And what economic boost is there to show for it?? The whole Keynesian theory that government subsidies can boost demand and economic output in general is on its last legs if not down for the count after this weak global "recovery" following the crisis. ...but perhaps this is all too theoretical and analytical.

My point about the increased military spending was not that it boosts the economy, but that it would be hard to argue that a nation in economic decline would be able/willing to spend so much on its military. :bash:Since when has it been free to borrow money in the USA? I have two mortgages--borrowing money--taken since them, and neither is free.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 16:39
Well, yes, Nobby, in a gentleman's world with suits and ties and John Kerry in knee high socks and short suit pant legs, yes, this is true.
But it's hard to avoid our animal, survival-of-the-fittest instincts. And so it's hard to believe that military might plays only a small role in the borrowing capabilities of a country.
And also if we doubt how large a role blood and bullets and the military play in the strength of a nation, sadly we need not look any further than ISIS/ISIL. :(

..if there's a hole in your argument just invent a conspiracy theory. :10293:

FatAndy
19-06-2015, 16:52
Since when has it been free to borrow money in the USA? I have two mortgages--borrowing money--taken since them, and neither is free.
Somewhat non-advanced system you have in The Citadel of Everything... in EU banks have negative interest rate, I was told... :rasta:

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 16:56
Since when has it been free to borrow money in the USA? I have two mortgages--borrowing money--taken since them, and neither is free.



You're not a bank.

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 17:20
..if there's a hole in your argument just invent a conspiracy theory. :10293:


Where is the hole in my argument? And which part is a conspiracy theory? ISIS/ISIL has no issues with its creditors because of its "ability to repay, stable government and a clear mandate to always repay ones debts"? Or because it will chop your f@$king head off if you don't do what it says? It's kind of naive to think that having the strongest military in the world has nothing to do with the USA's standing as an economic powerhouse....no, no, that's pure coincidence, really :AngelPray:

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 17:38
....As for showing what I know about economics, tell me, why do you think none of the USA's creditors call their debts?? Are they just really polite? Do they enjoy the annual interest payments more than wanting their original capital back? Or do you now finally see the link between having the strongest military in the world and being able to borrow endlessly? The times and terminoligies may change but some of the rules of the game stay the same no matter how big the sums of money get. :hooray:

Try not to move the goal posts when replying..

As i said. The US can pay it's debts not because it's a military super power (Japan is a good example of this) but because it has a stable government, it's able to repay and it has a commitment to repay it's creditors.

Markets decide if a country can pay it's debts. Bond yields and ultimately interest rates rise, as seen in the EU

nicklcool
19-06-2015, 18:39
Try not to move the goal posts when replying..

As i said. The US can pay it's debts not because it's a military super power (Japan is a good example of this) but because it has a stable government, it's able to repay and it has a commitment to repay it's creditors.

Markets decide if a country can pay it's debts. Bond yields and ultimately interest rates rise, as seen in the EU

I'll try to stay within the uprights this time :wavey:
The posts were about military might reducing the desire of the creditors to call their debts, not to issue the loans :9451:
In today's civilized world it would never come to this, but having a strong military would help a nation :bird: its creditors if it could no longer pay, right? Or maybe I'm missing something - is this not a valid reason to build up one's military? (I accept that it's certainly not the only or the most important reason)

Nobbynumbnuts
19-06-2015, 18:58
[QUOTE=nicklcool;1421825]I'll try to stay within the uprights this time :wavey:
The posts were about military might reducing the desire of the creditors to call their debts, not to issue the loans :9451:
In today's civilized world it would never come to this, but having a strong military would help a nation :bird: its creditors if it could no longer pay, right? Or maybe I'm missing something - is this not a valid reason to build up one's military? (I accept that it's certainly not the only or the most important reason).............................having the strongest military in the world and being able to borrow endlessly? /QUOTE]

...now you're suggesting China for example (the USA's largest creditor) wouldn't call in it's debt because it would fear military retribution? Fantasy land!

It's totally irrelevant. The value of China's deposit with the US would plummet in value at the first sign of the debt being called..

Uncle Wally
19-06-2015, 20:01
Try not to move the goal posts when replying..

As i said. The US can pay it's debts not because it's a military super power (Japan is a good example of this) but because it has a stable government, it's able to repay and it has a commitment to repay it's creditors.

Markets decide if a country can pay it's debts. Bond yields and ultimately interest rates rise, as seen in the EU



18 trillion dollars? That ain't being paid off anytime soon and they haven't paid off their debt they just keep moving the goal post and borrow more. As I understand it the US is at their limit and need to raise the goal post again.

Russian Lad
14-07-2015, 04:45
Seems like if we went over your predictions we would see that you haven't been doing so well lately

What, the Russian economy is not in danger and doesn't continue to degrade? If you are not seeing it, you are blind. Iran has been connected to Swift, will begin selling its oil soon, galore. Americans are about to sell all their oil resources (that alone, if it is done, will decrease the oil price by 10-15% for the coming 3 years). The capital flight continues, the ruble keeps getting weaker, almost all major industries are in the state of a tattered disarray, medication prices are predicted to rise steeply even more, soon, etc. It is a long list.

Olga Golodets, the vice prime-minister of Russia, claimed just yesterday that the number of Russians below the poverty line has reached 22 million and that it is already a critical level: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2767524 What, the people in restaurants are still laughing?

If the dollar is not 100 rubles yet, it is only because they jacked up the interest rate and are burning cash supporting the ruble, in all likelihood. It will get there sooner or later. I think sooner is more likely.

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 12:07
All I see is expected complications, I don't see it as trouble. Mind it, I read and listen to my news in at least four languages, in all sorts of sources, including your beloved RT and even Rossiya-24. I assume you have only 1/4 of this capacity. Not boasting, just pointing it out to you as a mere fact. And I doubt your analytical skills simply because you don't seem to have higher education. You let emotions overrun you all the time - it may fly well with some skirts, it is not an asset when assessing geopolitics and macroeconomics.
Economic default in Ukraine is still a highly likely possibility, by the way, but that's another story.



What, the Russian economy is not in danger and doesn't continue to degrade? If you are not seeing it, you are blind. Iran has been connected to Swift, will begin selling its oil soon, galore. Americans are about to sell all their oil resources (that alone, if it is done, will decrease the oil price by 10-15% for the coming 3 years). The capital flight continues, the ruble keeps getting weaker, almost all major industries are in the state of a tattered disarray, medication prices are predicted to rise steeply even more, soon, etc. It is a long list.

Olga Golodets, the vice prime-minister of Russia, claimed just yesterday that the number of Russians below the poverty line has reached 22 million and that it is already a critical level: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2767524 What, the people in restaurants are still laughing?

If the dollar is not 100 rubles yet, it is only because they jacked up the interest rate and are burning cash supporting the ruble, in all likelihood. It will get there sooner or later. I think sooner is more likely.




Maybe it's not so good in St Petersburg but Moscow does not seem to be hurting so much. Interest rates? The US, EU, China hell everyone is playing with them! If you haven't noticed the world economy is not doing well! There are 55 million people in the USofA now living below the poverty line! Austerity in the UK and all over Europe. It's because of uncontrolled growth and bankers stealing everything and anything.

Russian Lad
14-07-2015, 13:29
but Moscow does not seem to be hurting so much.

80% of Russia's money rotates in Moscow, of course it doesn't feel that bad. For now.

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 13:39
80% of Russia's money rotates in Moscow, of course it doesn't feel that bad. For now.



I am guessing this is why bars are still full. I was in Tula for Christmas and people there didn't seem so unhappy. Maybe I should go again.

Russian Lad
14-07-2015, 13:43
I am guessing this is why bars are still full. I was in Tula for Christmas and people there didn't seem so unhappy.

Now you are learning. Keep it up. :10293:

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 13:57
Now you are learning. Keep it up. :10293:



Maybe you should learn that not everyone wants to be rich and some just want to have a simple life and raise kids.

Russian Lad
14-07-2015, 14:16
Maybe you should learn that not everyone wants to be rich and some just want to have a simple life and raise kids.

This is absolutely correct, but even that is not possible when one is below the poverty line. :o In Saint Pete the trends are much worse. A globally known translation company keeps looking for translation talents - for 20K rubles per month, that's in a city where even renting a barely decent one room apartment costs that much. Just an example from the field I know well. How is one supposed to raise kids on 20K rubles per month (350 dollars)? It is not enough even for one person. Should the children be fed with outdated sausages from Piatorochka garbage containers? And even this example is not below the poverty line, where 22 million of Russians are already, according to the official estimates (I think the real number is much higher). How do you want them to raise children, Wally? By feeding them with boiled grass?

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 14:50
This is absolutely correct, but even that is not possible when one is below the poverty line. :o In Saint Pete the trends are much worse. A globally known translation company keeps looking for translation talents - for 20K rubles per month, that's in a city where even renting a barely decent one room apartment costs that much. Just an example from the field I know well. How is one supposed to raise kids on 20K rubles per month (350 dollars)? It is not enough even for one person. Should the children be fed with outdated sausages from Piatorochka garbage containers?



Change your line of work. It's because there are people willing to work for that that companies can pay so little. Many people do not need to rent and I am guessing that most of the people below the poverty line are older and/or retired. Here it seems that 30,000 is the minimum wage people will work for hence all the Tajik. You can still rent a one room apartment in Moscow for 22,000 rubles a month in some places. If you would really want to live there that's another story. Don't forget that many Russians still have dachas and can grow food too. Soon you will see cheap cucumbers and tomatoes, potatoes. All ready I've been buying cheaper fruit from South America and vegetables from Israel. You have to look but you can find stuff to buy. Vodka can be found at 180 rubles but I like Drova vodka and it's 362 rubles for a half liter where I buy it. I got a bottle of Russian Standard for 299 rubles last week. Sales on something every week. It does depend on where you shop though. Two or three times a week I good see my girlfriend after work, she works in the north of Moscow and there's this little shop were many things are much cheaper than he in the center so I pick up some stuff there.

fenrir
14-07-2015, 18:44
Change your line of work. It's because there are people willing to work for that that companies can pay so little. Many people do not need to rent and I am guessing that most of the people below the poverty line are older and/or retired. Here it seems that 30,000 is the minimum wage people will work for hence all the Tajik. You can still rent a one room apartment in Moscow for 22,000 rubles a month in some places. If you would really want to live there that's another story. Don't forget that many Russians still have dachas and can grow food too. Soon you will see cheap cucumbers and tomatoes, potatoes. All ready I've been buying cheaper fruit from South America and vegetables from Israel. You have to look but you can find stuff to buy. Vodka can be found at 180 rubles but I like Drova vodka and it's 362 rubles for a half liter where I buy it. I got a bottle of Russian Standard for 299 rubles last week. Sales on something every week. It does depend on where you shop though. Two or three times a week I good see my girlfriend after work, she works in the north of Moscow and there's this little shop were many things are much cheaper than he in the center so I pick up some stuff there.

What should the 110,000 Interior Ministry people who are about to be made redundant do, Wally? Collect bottles?

FatAndy
14-07-2015, 19:12
What should the 110,000 Interior Ministry people who are about to be made redundant do, Wally? Collect bottles?
What a dirty hint, comrade? They won't give up hand guns, so will manage as they can... ;)

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 23:22
What should the 110,000 Interior Ministry people who are about to be made redundant do, Wally? Collect bottles?



Only you are "redundant" they will move to other jobs. This is not America where you are just cut and hung out to dry. They will collect three months pay and move into consulting jobs or retire. Tell us what are all the people in Greece and the UK do under austerity when they are cut?

Russian Lad
14-07-2015, 23:30
Only you are "redundant" they will move to other jobs. This is not America where you are just cut and hung out to dry. They will collect three months pay and move into consulting jobs or retire.


It all sounds extremely detached from reality.

Uncle Wally
14-07-2015, 23:35
It all sounds extremely detached from reality.



Why have you forgotten what it's like to live in Russia? Please back up your claim.

Russian Lad
15-07-2015, 01:08
Please back up your claim.

Well, I didn't make any claims, you made quite a few. So, you back it up. I assume most of those 100K+ people will not be high-ranking officers, where will they go consulting and how are they going to retire if, say, most of them have served for 1-5 years? Most of them can only work as okhrannik (guards) because they don't have any other skills. But there is no shortage of guards in Russia (I have some acquaintances in this sphere), and even to become one a person has to obtain a special license, which requires money and time.

Uncle Wally
15-07-2015, 01:20
Well, I didn't make any claims, you made quite a few. So, you back it up. I assume most of those 100K+ people will not be high-ranking officers, where will they go consulting and how are they going to retire if, say, most of them have served for 1-5 years? Most of them can only work as okhrannik (guards) because they don't have any other skills. But there is no shortage of guards in Russia (I have some acquaintances in this sphere), and even to become one a person has to obtain a special license, which requires money and time.



No you are wrong again. They will be higher ranking and paper pushers. The police on the street will not be cut. I think it's call "trimming the fat".

Russian Lad
15-07-2015, 01:38
They will be higher ranking and paper pushers. The police on the street will not be cut. I think it's call "trimming the fat".

Paper pushers are not necessarily "higher ranking". We don't really know whom they are planning to lay off, but I strongly doubt those will be very qualified people capable of consulting anywhere on anything (or retiring, for that matter). If the opposite is the case - think about it - it would not make any sense, to lay off capable and knowledgeable people, would it? So, obviously they will lay off the most incapable ones without much experience tucked under their belts.
The bottom line - they will join the ranks of those below the poverty line, quite many of them. Together with families - we are talking about a much higher number.

Uncle Wally
15-07-2015, 08:24
Paper pushers are not necessarily "higher ranking". We don't really know whom they are planning to lay off, but I strongly doubt those will be very qualified people capable of consulting anywhere on anything (or retiring, for that matter). If the opposite is the case - think about it - it would not make any sense, to lay off capable and knowledgeable people, would it? So, obviously they will lay off the most incapable ones without much experience tucked under their belts.
The bottom line - they will join the ranks of those below the poverty line, quite many of them. Together with families - we are talking about a much higher number.



Life has made you bitter.

fenrir
15-07-2015, 08:47
No you are wrong again. They will be higher ranking and paper pushers. The police on the street will not be cut. I think it's call "trimming the fat".

Wow,you sound just like a bank CEO. Where's all the compassion for the Russian people you used to brag about?

Uncle Wally
15-07-2015, 10:49
Wow,you sound just like a bank CEO. Where's all the compassion for the Russian people you used to brag about?



What are you talking about? Do you think before you post? I doubt it very much.

If Russia is cutting jobs that are not needed then that extra money can go to create other jobs that are needed.

Russian Lad
15-07-2015, 13:11
Life has made you bitter.

Try to concentrate. By the way, I agree with Fenrir, you sound very much like the banksters you allegedly hate: "Hey, what's the big deal about those lay-offs, they will find some other employment or will retire, no harm done!" What a U-turn on your part. You are quite a balerina, Wally. :watching:

nicklcool
17-07-2015, 12:44
Paper pushers are not necessarily "higher ranking". We don't really know whom they are planning to lay off, but I strongly doubt those will be very qualified people capable of consulting anywhere on anything (or retiring, for that matter). If the opposite is the case - think about it - it would not make any sense, to lay off capable and knowledgeable people, would it? So, obviously they will lay off the most incapable ones without much experience tucked under their belts.
The bottom line - they will join the ranks of those below the poverty line, quite many of them. Together with families - we are talking about a much higher number.


Everything on these 89 pages of posts is anecdotal and suppositional. We can't even agree on the facts which is why no one can agree if the Russian Economy of USA economy is long term headed south or will be OK.

Which of these statements do you think is true?

1a. Fossil Fuels are headed on an unrecoverable trajectory downward and will never recover.
1b. Russia has the most corrupt government among the Group of Eight countries.
1c. Higher debt level, low military spending, and high welfare spending are not indicators of a sick economy.


2a. Fossil fuels are cheap at the moment but will remain the dominant energy source for the foreseeable future.
2b. Russia does have corruption in its government, but it is not noticeably more than in the other wealthy countries.
2c. Less debt held by the government, higher military spending, and lower welfare spending will lead to a stronger economy long term.

If you agree with the first set of premises, you think the Russian economy is headed forever south. If you agree with the second set, you think the Russian economy is experiencing a bump in the road right now but eventually will recover.

What other premises do you think exist to prove the state of the Russian economy? If we cannot decide on these we will just go pointlessly back and forth for another 80+ pages of posts.

This is like that Game Theory class I took back in college - the professor pointed out that there's no point arguing politics with someone if you cannot agree on the premises. We've all heard that one - "you're entitled to your opinion but you're not entitled to the facts."

It's like we all need to agree on the facts at least - if A + B = C and D + E = C than A + B must equal D + E. There's no arguing that, those are just the simple facts. I tried to bring up the objective data that Russia proportionally is spending more GDP on military and less GDP on welfare (than the USA), to show that her economy will be OK long run.

What objective facts show the Russian economy is headed for the tanker? What facts show this - not anecdotal layoffs or prices of food, or anecdotal stories of drunken fools laughing in restaurants, what cold hard facts that we can all analyze show this? :rules:

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 12:51
What objective facts show the Russian economy is headed for the tanker? What facts show this - not anecdotal layoffs or prices of food, or anecdotal stories of drunken fools laughing in restaurants, what cold hard facts that we can all analyze show this?

Ok, the Russian economy is just fine, nothing to worry about.:D There are many "cold facts" as you call them on those 80+ pages, I don't feel an urgent need to repeat them, I trust your reading and comprehension skills. I hope Iran begins selling its oil as soon as possible and the US begins selling its oil reserves. We will continue from there.
Yes, the oil prices may rebound after some time, but it is all about when and about what will transpire during the time period leading to this rebound... A lot of this is about timing, as always.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 12:59
Everything on these 89 pages of posts is anecdotal and suppositional. We can't even agree on the facts which is why no one can agree if the Russian Economy of USA economy is long term headed south or will be OK.

Which of these statements do you think is true?

1a. Fossil Fuels are headed on an unrecoverable trajectory downward and will never recover.
1b. Russia has the most corrupt government among the Group of Eight countries.
1c. Higher debt level, low military spending, and high welfare spending are not indicators of a sick economy.


2a. Fossil fuels are cheap at the moment but will remain the dominant energy source for the foreseeable future.
2b. Russia does have corruption in its government, but it is not noticeably more than in the other wealthy countries.
2c. Less debt held by the government, higher military spending, and lower welfare spending will lead to a stronger economy long term.

If you agree with the first set of premises, you think the Russian economy is headed forever south. If you agree with the second set, you think the Russian economy is experiencing a bump in the road right now but eventually will recover.

What other premises do you think exist to prove the state of the Russian economy? If we cannot decide on these we will just go pointlessly back and forth for another 80+ pages of posts.

This is like that Game Theory class I took back in college - the professor pointed out that there's no point arguing politics with someone if you cannot agree on the premises. We've all heard that one - "you're entitled to your opinion but you're not entitled to the facts."

It's like we all need to agree on the facts at least - if A + B = C and D + E = C than A + B must equal D + E. There's no arguing that, those are just the simple facts. I tried to bring up the objective data that Russia proportionally is spending more GDP on military and less GDP on welfare (than the USA), to show that her economy will be OK long run.

What objective facts show the Russian economy is headed for the tanker? What facts show this - not anecdotal layoffs or prices of food, or anecdotal stories of drunken fools laughing in restaurants, what cold hard facts that we can all analyze show this? :rules:

The World bank predicts that the Russian economy will contract by 3.8% this year. Now, that might be revised upwards or down somewhat. With sanctions and a low oil price what we can say for sure is that the outlook is not good..

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 13:33
Ok, the Russian economy is just fine, nothing to worry about.:D There are many "cold facts" as you call them on those 80+ pages, I don't feel an urgent need to repeat them, I trust your reading and comprehension skills. I hope Iran begins selling its oil as soon as possible and the US begins selling its oil reserves. We will continue from there.
Yes, the oil prices may rebound after some time, but it is all about when and about what will transpire during the time period leading to this rebound... A lot of this is about timing, as always.



Yes it is about how Russia will adjust to new realities and economic attacks on her sovereignty. The Iran deal will unlock 100 billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets and I assume some of that will be coming to Russia with increased trade. I don't know about you but I remember a time when Russia had more Iranian products.

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 13:44
Yes it is about how Russia will adjust to new realities and economic attacks on her sovereignty. The Iran deal will unlock 100 billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets and I assume some of that will be coming to Russia with increased trade. I don't know about you but I remember a time when Russia had more Iranian products.

Iran hasn't been able to sell its products to Russia? Whatever trinkets they supply here, they will not compensate for the hit the Russian economy will receive from even lower oil prices due to the Iranian oil on the global market. I don't know how about you, Wally, but I am expecting to see the first fights for cheap food in supermarkets here in Russia before the end of this year.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 13:47
Iran hasn't been able to sell its products to Russia?

..and of course any additional benefits in added trade (in areas currently covered by Iranian sanctions) might be offset by a lower oil price when Iran ramps up production..

nicklcool
17-07-2015, 14:02
..and of course any additional benefits in added trade (in areas currently covered by Iranian sanctions) might be offset by a lower oil price when Iran ramps up production..


Of course this all assumes that there are no collusive organizations in the world the artificially limit or increase output to control oil prices [cough cough OPEC]

So what I thought it true, the reason people here think Russia's economy will never recover is because they think (hope) that fossil fuel prices are in an inevitable perpetual decline. You all may be right, but that's an awfully wobbly proposition, one I wouldn't bet even my piggy bank on :7525:

Or is there a way Russia's economy still will falter, even if fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source of the world for the next half-century or so?

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 14:06
So what I thought it true, the reason people here think Russia's economy will never recover is because they think (hope) that fossil fuel prices are in an inevitable perpetual decline.

No one said the word "perpetual", there is no need to put the whims of your imagination into someone else's mouth.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 14:10
Of course this all assumes that there are no collusive organizations in the world the artificially limit or increase output to control oil prices [cough cough OPEC]

So what I thought it true, the reason people here think Russia's economy will never recover is because they think (hope) that fossil fuel prices are in an inevitable perpetual decline. You all may be right, but that's an awfully wobbly proposition, one I wouldn't bet even my piggy bank on :7525:

Or is there a way Russia's economy still will falter, even if fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source of the world for the next half-century or so?

Firstly, i made no prediction that Russia's economy would never recover.

Oil Prices are in a perpetual decline? I have no idea, even oil experts are divided on their opinions about that.

I think fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source for the foreseeable future. 50 years hence? Again, no idea.

nicklcool
17-07-2015, 14:15
Ok, the Russian economy is just fine, nothing to worry about.:D There are many "cold facts" as you call them on those 80+ pages, I don't feel an urgent need to repeat them, I trust your reading and comprehension skills.

Thank you Russian Lad, yes, no reason to recite or regurgitate the reasons again, but I want to understand the basis of the argument that Russia's economy is in a forever tailspin. Is it more than these points?

1. Russia's corruption is deeper greater in number and more uncontrollable than that of most other developed countries
2. Fossil fuels have lost their dominance and prices will not significantly recover
3. The sanctions are doing their damage and Russia cannot adapt to survive within their limits
4. Companies in Russia are laying off many many people and this is a sign of unavoidable economic doom
5. Inflation is spiraling out of control, especially on food

(Please note that on inflation food costs are the only point brought up. Food costs are EXCLUDED from inflation numbers in the USA as was widely discussed earlier in this thread! Iiiinteresting)

I am not being facetious - if these are the main reasons everyone thinks Russia's economy is in decline, again, I don't think these predictions are foregone conclusions (can anyone show they are?). Strong military spending, possession of abundance of natural resources, strong culture and border security, and unity of the citizens, however, have historically produced strong prosperous nation-states. :11033:

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 14:22
I am not being facetious - if these are the main reasons everyone thinks Russia's economy is in decline

These and like 100 other factors, like the capital flight. There is no unity of citizens here other than in your head and on television channels. This kvas patriotism you call unity disappears at the first signs of real hardships. The Russian society is very atomized, there are no grounds for real and sustained unity.


but I want to understand the basis of the argument that Russia's economy is in a forever tailspin

Again, no one used the word forever. Circumstances and those in power change.

nicklcool
17-07-2015, 14:26
No one said the word "perpetual", there is no need to put the whims of your imagination into someone else's mouth.

No whims here RL and nobby, just pure emotion-free analysis and logic. I struggle to comprehend why you both think perpetual oil price decline is something I have put into your mouths. Many pages of this thread have been dedicated to the idea that the Russian economy is headed for collapse. Collapse implies an unrecoverable situation hence the fossil fuels must forever be headed for a downturn. :fudd:

Or did I misinterpret - do the Russia-haters think the Russian economy is just headed for a recession, a temporary decade or so blip on the map?

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 14:30
Yes, you misinterpret and twist everything. Again, I am not planning to repeat myself here, I have already said enough on the subject. The near future will show who is correct.
6 million more Russians below the poverty line in less than a year and you are telling me things are sort of ok. Ha. Only in your head and on the Russian mainstream tv channels.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 14:35
No whims here RL and nobby, just pure emotion-free analysis and logic. I struggle to comprehend why you both think perpetual oil price decline is something I have put into your mouths. Many pages of this thread have been dedicated to the idea that the Russian economy is headed for collapse. Collapse implies an unrecoverable situation hence the fossil fuels must forever be headed for a downturn. :fudd:

Or did I misinterpret - do the Russia-haters think the Russian economy is just headed for a recession, a temporary decade or so blip on the map?

Please show me where i ever said the oil price or Russia was in perpetual decline.

I have never said the Russian economy will collapse either. Again, i've been very careful to avoid such statements.

As i've said again and again, the outlook for Russia is not looking good for many reasons. Does that mean the result will be total collapse, decade or a blip? Who knows, how can anyone know that?

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 14:39
Please show me where i ever said the oil price or Russia was in perpetual decline.

I have never said the Russian economy will collapse either. Again, i've been very careful to avoid such statements.

As i've said again and again, the outlook for Russia is not looking good for many reasons. Does that mean the result will be total collapse, decade or a blip? Who knows, how can anyone know that?

I agree with that. I personally don't think there will be a collapse in the sense of "nothing is working, mayday", but the deterioration will be sufficient for certain changes to take effect, let's put it this way.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 14:56
I agree with that. I personally don't think there will be a collapse in the sense of "nothing is working, mayday", but the deterioration will be sufficient for certain changes to take effect, let's put it this way.

How does nicklcool come to the conclusion that Russia isn't in recession and will return to positive growth tomorrow, the oil price is about to return to $100pbl etc etc?

Where's the evidence for his optimism?

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 15:07
How does nicklcool come to the conclusion that Russia isn't in recession and will return to positive growth tomorrow, the oil price is about to return to $100pbl etc etc?

Where's the evidence for his optimism?

Maybe he is from Olgino? That would explain that.:D

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 15:11
Maybe he is from Olgino? That would explain that.:D

I have to admit i had to google that. Looks quite nice though! ;)

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 15:16
Well, I meant this::D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolls_from_Olgino
And this: http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-trolls-headquarters-media-internet-insider-account/26904157.html
And this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r_VAxvu4l8

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 15:39
No whims here RL and nobby, just pure emotion-free analysis and logic. I struggle to comprehend why you both think perpetual oil price decline is something I have put into your mouths. Many pages of this thread have been dedicated to the idea that the Russian economy is headed for collapse. Collapse implies an unrecoverable situation hence the fossil fuels must forever be headed for a downturn. :fudd:

Or did I misinterpret - do the Russia-haters think the Russian economy is just headed for a recession, a temporary decade or so blip on the map?



Well for one I can see Russia selling Iran more weapons and maybe cars, wood metals..........

FatAndy
17-07-2015, 17:07
The World bank predicts that the Russian economy will contract by 3.8% this year.
N/A. It's already torn into pieces. Listen your master's voice ;)

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 17:41
N/A. It's already torn into pieces. Listen your master's voice ;)


You haven't discovered El Dorado. Those numbers are for guidance only..;)

FatAndy
17-07-2015, 19:26
Those numbers are for guidance only..;)
Numbers are for number of pieces or for their size? :)

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 19:41
Sure and of course. And this is good and correct. Our country is much more important thing, than brain damage called "journalizzm". :)

They say the same thing in North Korea. :-)

Keep in mind;
Russians are big and strong.
Putin is big and strong
Russians are frightened of nothing etc etc etc etc ;)

It will all end in tears for them, as it always does. But we will be there again to help them pick up the pieces :p

FatAndy
17-07-2015, 19:43
It will all end in tears for them again, as it always does :p
Will see :whisper:

FatAndy
17-07-2015, 19:45
But we will be there again to help them pick up the pieces :p
Well, I guess, we'll manage w/o snooty helpers, as I told you already. But feel free to dream...:coffee:

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 19:59
Well, I guess, we'll manage w/o snooty helpers, as I told you already. But feel free to dream...:coffee:

We'll see..;)

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 21:37
FatAndy will remain defiant and will reject chicken legs this time around...:voodoo::neiner:

Nobbynumbnuts
17-07-2015, 21:42
FatAndy will remain defiant and will reject chicken legs this time around...:voodoo::neiner:


..i'm sure he would rather stave to death than except a chicken leg from me but that's his weakness, not his strength. ;)

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 22:13
:celebrate:

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 23:04
Keep in mind;
Russians are big and strong.
Putin is big and strong
Russians are frightened of nothing etc etc etc etc ;)

It will all end in tears for them, as it always does. But we will be there again to help them pick up the pieces :p



Man are you full of yourself.

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 23:07
..i'm sure he would rather stave to death than except a chicken leg from me but that's his weakness, not his strength. ;)



Slave mentality. Bow down to us.


Oh we are so powerful and so good, here eat some of our food we robbed.

Russian Lad
17-07-2015, 23:09
Oh we are so powerful and so good, here eat some of our food we robbed.

What, another humanitarian convoy is due to be sent to Donbass? :eh:

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 23:27
What, another humanitarian convoy is due to be sent to Donbass? :eh:



There is a difference between giving help and letting people live their own life and giving help and then expecting them do what you say. The way numbnuts puts it he's cool and better than you and will share his ill gotten gains if you become like him.

What do you want from people who don't understand freedom.

Uncle Wally
17-07-2015, 23:47
RL why do you think that Iran will just flood the markets will oil and the price will drop so much? Isn't Iran part of OPEC? Don't they have quotas they have to adhere to? Won't other members cut production to stabilize prices? The Saudis are fighting a war now aren't they? You don't think they need money? Killing people on a large scale doesn't come cheap.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 01:22
RL why do you think that Iran will just flood the markets will oil and the price will drop so much? Isn't Iran part of OPEC? Don't they have quotas they have to adhere to? Won't other members cut production to stabilize prices? The Saudis are fighting a war now aren't they? You don't think they need money? Killing people on a large scale doesn't come cheap.

They plan to increase the production by around 1 million barrels per day within a year, the country needs cash and the extraction cost is much cheaper than in Russia, the oil is of a better quality I think. It is just one of the factors at play, but it alone will cut the price by 5-7% within 2-3 years, maybe earlier, they have quite some oil waiting to be sold in tankers, as I understand.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/07/13/crude-estimate-how-ending-iran-sanctions-may-impact-oil-markets

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 02:47
They plan to increase the production by around 1 million barrels per day within a year, the country needs cash and the extraction cost is much cheaper than in Russia, the oil is of a better quality I think. It is just one of the factors at play, but it alone will cut the price by 5-7% within 2-3 years, maybe earlier, they have quite some oil waiting to be sold in tankers, as I understand.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/07/13/crude-estimate-how-ending-iran-sanctions-may-impact-oil-markets



They also have 100 billion dollars in frozen assets waiting to be released. They will make contacts with Russian oil companies and 2 or 3 years Russia will adjust to the new realities. I really don't understand why you whine? We could all be dead in 2 years because America has some very stupid people who think you can "win" a nuclear war.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 03:49
We could all be dead in 2 years because

Stop whining.:rolleyes:


They also have 100 billion dollars in frozen assets waiting to be released. They will make contacts with Russian oil companies and 2 or 3 years Russia will adjust to the new realities.

Ok, if Wally says so. Many experts got it all wrong then I guess. Wally rules.

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 03:50
Again, no one used the word forever. Circumstances and those in power change.

No RL no one said forever but all the doom and gloom posts imply that this is a serious, long term debilitating downturn that will have long lasting (forever?) impact. This is what they call "reading between the lines."


but if it is at least possible (I think likely) that Russia is only entering a Depression, then how is she different from the many other Western countries experiencing recessions right now?

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 03:52
Firstly, i made no prediction that Russia's economy would never recover.

Sorry Nobby I lumped you in with RussianLad.

But I mean you two have been in tag team mode all day on this thread!

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 03:57
No RL no one said forever but all the doom and gloom posts imply that this is a serious, long term debilitating downturn that will have long lasting (forever?) impact. This is what they call "reading between the lines."

Serious - yes, long-lasting - yes, forever - no. Omnia transeunt. A new movie about an American in Russia (18+, English subtitles, enjoy) - I was thinking about Wally when watching it:))): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufcwrz6aBBA

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 03:58
Well, I meant this::D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolls_from_Olgino
And this: http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-trolls-headquarters-media-internet-insider-account/26904157.html
And this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r_VAxvu4l8


RL, nice try, are you pushing traffic to your website as one of the millions of fake twitter followers (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2013/09/24/53-of-obama-twitter-followers-are-fake-accounts/) of Biden Michelle ror Obama? Please note that thesefake accounts are documented and proven while the Olgino Trolls are the imagination of a disgruntled former employee

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 04:05
Yes, you misinterpret and twist everything. Again, I am not planning to repeat myself here, I have already said enough on the subject. The near future will show who is correct.
6 million more Russians below the poverty line in less than a year and you are telling me things are sort of ok. Ha. Only in your head and on the Russian mainstream tv channels.

This is too bad. I appreciate our duscussions, find your comments insightful, and hoped that you felt the same :/ If I am misinterpreting and twisting, can you explain where and how? If we accept that Russia's wconony might be in only a temporary decline, many of the assumptions (hopes?) in this thread- 100+ RUB -> USD exchange rates, starving pensioners, political revolutions - become highly unlikely. That is why I inferred that you were prognasticating earth shattering long term economic turmoil.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 04:12
while the Olgino Trolls are the imagination of a disgruntled former employee

Funny, now I am like 99% sure you are one of them, in this or that capacity.:) I mean, the evidence as to their existence is overwhelming and even the "patriots" here don't deny their existence and claim it is all a part of an alleged "info war". Your pants are on fire.


many of the assumptions (hopes?) in this thread- 100+ RUB -> USD exchange rates, starving pensioners

The dollar was up to 100 rubles at a certain point, it will be there again. Starving pensioners - I am looking at one right now from my window, collecting aluminum cans, if you pay me I will film him for you.

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 04:14
How does nicklcool come to the conclusion that Russia isn't in recession and will return to positive growth tomorrow, the oil price is about to return to $100pbl etc etc?

Where's the evidence for his optimism?
I don't think positive growth happens tommorow, of course. But here's the logic for why I think the Russian economy will do just fine long term: the causes of this recent diwnturn are inherently temporary in nature:
1. sanctions from the West
2. lower gas prices

and the macro fundamentals are stronger than in the West:
1. More (growing) GDP proportionally spent on Military
2. Less[ening] proportion of GDP spent onn social Welfare
3. Growing birth rates
4. Stronger border protection
5. Culture is being supported and protected as a matter of policy


Those last two might be opinion; the first three have links to back them up, buried in my earlier posts. Rhat's how I came ro my conclusion about the long term prospects for The Russian Economy.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 04:18
So, how much are you paid per post? Or is it like a bulk service? You sound rather artificial.

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 04:29
Funny, now I am like 99% sure you are one of them, in this or that capacity.:) I mean, the evidence as to their existence is overwhelming and even the "patriots" here don't deny their existence and claim it is all a part of an alleged "info war". Your pants are on fire.



The dollar was up to 100 rubles at a certain point, it will be there again. Starving pensioners - I am looking at one right now from my window, collecting aluminum bottles, if you pay me I will film him for you.


RL, no need, I am from the USA ghetto, maybe a slumdog millionaire of sorts, more of a pick yourself up by your bootstraps kind of guy, or at least I hope to become one ;) I can create for you plenty of video evidence of embarrassing Americans!
As for the Russian Trolls, the only articcle I saw was from some liberal rag ( NYT I think?) with one former employee as the proof. If there is more substantial proof of the existence of these trolls, my bad.

But it does not bode well for your rhetorical skills that you must resort to calling me a govt paid troll just to make your point. Just call me a racist homophobe like all the other good brownshirt liberals out there!

Starving pensioners? I doubt it- Eussians are a very resourceful people. Now if you'd like I can send you a video (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Do64Fz-KW1Dk&ved=0CCIQtwIwAGoVChMI-IKe6MLjxgIVxsk-Ch12cwlY&usg=AFQjCNH-XjUWPyvO2xN31FOb4HACQFCJkA&sig2=QIULTR9OL_wAirxF9le5Zg) of our starving food stamp recipients-go ahead, dance along to the hum of America's mighty economy! Are you sure she's in a good position to turn things around?

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 04:32
the only articcle I saw was from some liberal rag ( NYT I think?) with one former employee as the proof. If there is more substantial proof of the existence of these trolls, my bad.

I saw them on many Russian sites even before they were exposed. They are easy to spot - sometimes they just copy-paste the same message in comments, it leaves traces in search engines. There was an online investigation.


But it does not bode well for your rhetorical skills that you must resort to calling me a govt paid troll just to make your point. Just call me a racist homophobe like all the other good brownshirt liberals out there!

I don't know what your status here is, but you sound artificial, as if you are talking on the basis of a certain legend. Wally, for instance, sounds real, though I strongly suspect he has an agreeable arrangement running with the forum admins, judging by how they let him use profanity with impunity, among other things.:)


Starving pensioners? I doubt it- Eussians are a very resourceful people. Now if you'd like I can send you a video of our starving food stamp recipients-go ahead, dance along to the hum of America's mighty economy! Are you sure she's in a good position to turn things around?
__________________

Once again, there are about 6 million new people below the poverty line during this year (official stats, most likely in reality - 10 million+), I assume there are many pensioners among them. And yes, you have to starve or at least to suffer from malnutrition when you are below the poverty line. One of my mother's friends has the pension of 8K rubles (140 dollars) and pays the utility bills too, 3K rubles. Don't know how she survives, but she looks very underfed, pale to the extreme and thin as a stick.

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 04:42
So, how much are you paid per post? Or is it like a bulk service? You sound rather artificial.


You must be paid hundreds more then. Look at your join date and total posts and compare to mine. You are the evil rich Russian oligarch and I am the poor babushka scrapping for food in Putin's Russia!


Seriously, friend, I'm in a different timezone, so usually I can only post begore or after work. It's bedtime here on the East Coast, good night!

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 04:50
You must be paid hundreds more then

This is right and correct. Envy in silence. (C) FatAndy :bedtime:

Judge
18-07-2015, 08:21
But it does not bode well for your rhetorical skills that you must resort to calling me a govt paid troll just to make your point. Just call me a racist homophobe like all the other good brownshirt liberals out there!

Welcome to the club,
That's the usual line he takes when he can't discuss any further, it's the easy way out for him, we are all on the payroll of the Kremlin..:)

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 10:03
Stop whining.:rolleyes:



Ok, if Wally says so. Many experts got it all wrong then I guess. Wally rules.



What "experts"? And who's whining? I'm trying to tell you to stop worrying so much and you tell me to stop whining?

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 10:15
I don't know what your status here is, but you sound artificial, as if you are talking on the basis of a certain legend. Wally, for instance, sounds real, though I strongly suspect he has an agreeable arrangement running with the forum admins, judging by how they let him use profanity with impunity, among other stick.

Profanity, what the f*ck you mean?

I wouldn't use profanity if numbnuts wasn't trolling me all the time and just posting insult after insult and getting away with it. He must be working here in between flipping hamburgers and chopping onions.

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 10:16
Welcome to the club,
That's the usual line he takes when he can't discuss any further, it's the easy way out for him, we are all on the payroll of the Kremlin..:)


And he had to steal that from fenrir.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 12:16
when he can't discuss any further, it's the easy way out for him

Well, I covered most of his points before adjourning to bed.:) Nick seems to believe all is going just great, despite the stats (the official ones) showing it is going south. I cannot understand the logic behind that, hence my innuendos (maybe undeserved).

Nobbynumbnuts
18-07-2015, 13:23
Well, change "no one" to "most people" and it would be rather accurate, I think. Otherwise we would not have many dozens of sovereign states sanctioning our arses, among other things.

With more to come i think, front page of the Times today...

"The USA is ready to cut Russia off from Western credit should President Vladimir Putin fails to meet demands for peace in the Ukraine, it has emerged"

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4501763.ece

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 14:15
Doesn't look good.:)

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 14:17
Well, change "no one" to "most people" and it would be rather accurate, I think. Otherwise we would not have many dozens of sovereign states sanctioning our arses, among other things.



You forget all the pressure America put of other countries to sanction Russia? You try to make it sound like they couldn't wait whilst in reality they were dragged kicking and screaming.

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 14:19
Doesn't look good.:)



Yeah it looks great!

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 14:22
You forget all the pressure America put of other countries to sanction Russia? You try to make it sound like they couldn't wait whilst in reality they were dragged kicking and screaming.

Only in your imagination, Wally. But if it is true and the US is so strong it fully controls the governments of like 90-95% of the European states, including Germany and France, the governments of Canada, Australia, Japan and the GB, we better be the friends of the omnipotent US, not its enemies or opponents, given that our economy is only a little fraction of the US one (3.5%, according to the high-ranking Russian official Ulukaev)... :tongue:

Uncle Wally
18-07-2015, 14:32
Only in your imagination, Wally. But if it is true and the US is so strong it fully controls the governments of like 90-95% of the European states, including Germany and France, the governments of Canada, Australia, Japan and the GB, we better be the friends of the omnipotent US, not its enemies or opponents, given that our economy is only a little fraction of the US one (3.5%, according to the high-ranking Russian official Ulukaev)... :tongue:



You claim to read a lot of news? It was in many reports that most in the EU didn't support sanctions and still don't.

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 14:38
most in the EU didn't support sanctions

Proof? So now you claim most governments in the EU countries are unconstitutional and don't really reflect the opinions and wishes of the majority of their citizens? Wow, the plot thickens in the Wally World.:9437:

nicklcool
18-07-2015, 20:36
Well, I covered most of his points before adjourning to bed.:) Nick seems to believe all is going just great, despite the stats (the official ones) showing it is going south. I cannot understand the logic behind that, hence my innuendos (maybe undeserved).
Close, I definitely know Russia's economy is going through a weak spell right now, probably a recession, but I don't think she will stay that way forever. Why? I've posted many links and made many arguments why I think long-term the Russian economy will be fine, probaby better than the USA given her unsustainable debt and yearly deficit spending.

Most of your posts are about current economic woes but imply a long term weak if not collapsed Russian economy. Why do you think Russia's economy's long term prospects are doomed? Or if you don't think that, why is this temporary recession causing you so much anger? Just about every first world economy in the world is dealing with a recession right now, if not technically (USA's "ended" years ago) than in practice!

Russian Lad
18-07-2015, 21:03
Most of your posts are about current economic woes but imply a long term weak if not collapsed Russian economy. Why do you think Russia's economy's long term prospects are doomed? Or if you don't think that, why is this temporary recession causing you so much anger? Just about every first world economy in the world is dealing with a recession right now, if not technically (USA's "ended" years ago) than in practice!

I have written a lot about it already, I don't feel like repeating the codas. We are closer to the end of mitterspiel, if you play chess, while a certain party is in a permanent zugzwang, I think we better concentrate on the coming news as they come. Who is more correct in his assessments will be clear within one calendar year, I reckon.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-07-2015, 03:57
Perhaps we should leave the last word to Russia's own Deputy Prime minister...

http://www.interfax.ru/russia/453429


The number of Russians living below the poverty line increased in the first quarter of 2015 to 22.9 million people, or 15.9 percent of the population. In 2014, the number was 16.1 million (11.2 percent), while in 2013 it was 15.5 million (10.8 percent). Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said the rise came as a result of sky-high inflation—the poverty line salary went up from 7,688 rubles per month last year to 9,662 rubles this year due to rising prices—and called the increase “critical.”

From the horses mouth.....;-)

Russian Lad
19-07-2015, 04:23
I have told them that like three times already - they are paying no attention. The real numbers may be even higher, the officials usually downplay them.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-07-2015, 04:54
I have told them that like three times already - they are paying no attention. The real numbers may be even higher, the officials usually downplay them.


..well if the DPM of Russia makes such an admission (and credit to her for her honesty) then we can all believe it.

Russian Lad
19-07-2015, 05:10
then we can all believe it

Then I personally believe it is much worse.:) There are millions of Russians who are unaccounted for actually, either employed at the black labor market or just leading a semi-hobo life or combining the two. I think we are talking about like 5-7 million more. So, it is safe to assume this real number is around 30 million people. Out of 140 - that's basically close to Nigeria or maybe even Somalia. Statistically, we are rather close to Nigeria by many parameters like the death rate, the pollution and corruption rate and so forth (and by the amount of the elite real estate purchased in London:)).

Nobbynumbnuts
19-07-2015, 05:44
Then I personally believe it is much worse.:) There are millions of Russians who are unaccounted for actually, either employed at the black labor market or just leading a semi-hobo life or combining the two. I think we are talking about like 5-7 million more. So, it is safe to assume this real number is around 30 million people. Out of 140 - that's basically close to Nigeria or maybe even Somalia. Statistically, we are rather close to Nigeria by many parameters like the death rate, the pollution and corruption rate and so forth (and by the amount of the elite real estate purchased in London:)).

I understand where you're coming from. One would assume that politicians always under estimate the bad news and over estimate the good news.

I have no way of verifying your estimates so can't really comment. I'll just settle for the DPM's confirmation of what i was sure of (and other sources confirm) all along..

fenrir
19-07-2015, 12:29
I understand where you're coming from. One would assume that politicians always under estimate the bad news and over estimate the good news.

I have no way of verifying your estimates so can't really comment. I'll just settle for the DPM's confirmation of what i was sure of (and other sources confirm) all along..

Wally and nickcool suddenly seem to be AWOL. How convenient.

Btw, I haven't heard the 'sanctions aint gonna hurt us' BS in a while.

Uncle Wally
19-07-2015, 12:54
Wally and nickcool suddenly seem to be AWOL. How convenient.

Btw, I haven't heard the 'sanctions aint gonna hurt us' BS in a while.



The sanctions ain't gonna hurt us.

nicklcool
19-07-2015, 14:16
Wally and nickcool suddenly seem to be AWOL. How convenient.

Btw, I haven't heard the 'sanctions aint gonna hurt us' BS in a while.

Thank you fenrir, I live on the East Coast in the USA, so I must be AWOL while you all are on the clock :)

RL is right, the Russian economy is hurting right now - it's impossible not to admit that. My whole point has been what factors exists that predict a turnaround or continued downturn for the Russian economy? IMHO factors point to an eventual turnaround and growing economy; RL thinks the Russian economy is setting up "substantial changes" in the near future (RL at the risk of twisting your words, I did not write that you are predicting political revolution, but isn't this what you're essentially implying?)

So we both agree that the Russian economy is down right now; I lean towards temporary recession while RL leans towards long-term downturn/depression. I've pointed out the factors that I thing will lead to a strong RF economy in the future; RL tells us to look at his previous posts to see why he thinks the economy will not turn around. I've read this whole thread and all his posts are about current economic woes - how do those necessarily point to a bleak future?

FWIW, does the RF inflation rate include foodstuffs and gas costs? I think I found the correct site but don't yet have the time to search it for an anwer: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/tariffs/ :book:

Russian Lad
19-07-2015, 14:20
The sanctions ain't gonna hurt us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkUmIFIsY8k


it's impossible not to admit that

Learn from Wally and the crew, you can do it. Make a mental effort - see, if you deny something, it is as if it is not happening.:)


but isn't this what you're essentially implying

Not necessarily, there is always a chance for a peaceful transition. I would certainly prefer a peaceful transition.


how do those necessarily point to a bleak future

I heard it a year ago, combined with an haughty laugh, from quite many posters here. However, the economic situation has worsened. Many indicators tell me it will get even worse, much worse.

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 14:34
Sberbank: the currencies market in Russia will experience a new shock by the end of this year:
https://news.mail.ru/economics/22716785/?frommail=1
http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/sberbank-predupredil-o-rezkom-podorozhanii-dollara-k-koncu-goda-1000729866

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 16:33
I read an article that said Russians grow 40% of their own fruit and vegetables at dacha or small private farms.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 16:42
I heard it a year ago, combined with an haughty laugh, from quite many posters here. However, the economic situation has worsened. Many indicators tell me it will get even worse, much worse.



It's going to get worse for everyone by years end. Things aren't looking too good in the USofA and not sure the can keep up the manipulation of markets and currency. The World Bank is forecasting $78 a barrel for oil by next winter saying that Russia only needs $60 a barrel because the drop in the ruble is helping keep profits coming in. Restaurants were packed this weekend!!!!

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 16:45
Wally, you are becoming more and more credible as the days go by.

fenrir
20-07-2015, 16:56
It's going to get worse for everyone by years end. Things aren't looking too good in the USofA and not sure the can keep up the manipulation of markets and currency. The World Bank is forecasting $78 a barrel for oil by next winter saying that Russia only needs $60 a barrel because the drop in the ruble is helping keep profits coming in. Restaurants were packed this weekend!!!!

You wouldn't happen to have the link to that article, would you?

fenrir
20-07-2015, 16:57
I read an article that said Russians grow 40% of their own fruit and vegetables at dacha or small private farms.

Link? If that were true, market prices should reflect it.

fenrir
20-07-2015, 17:01
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/42-billion-debt-trap-putin-210001729.html

Here is another long-term problem that can be helped now or punted into the future when it will take on disastrous proportions.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 17:02
Wally, you are becoming more and more credible as the days go by.



Why thank you. You too have been sounding less hysterical.

Armoured
20-07-2015, 17:06
Sberbank: the currencies market in Russia will experience a new shock by the end of this year:
https://news.mail.ru/economics/22716785/?frommail=1
http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/sberbank-predupredil-o-rezkom-podorozhanii-dollara-k-koncu-goda-1000729866

Oh, sure, Sberbank, part of the MSM / anti-Russian conspiracy.

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 17:09
Wally must investigate.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 17:09
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/42-billion-debt-trap-putin-210001729.html

Here is another long-term problem that can be helped now or punted into the future when it will take on disastrous proportions.



Oh yeah that 42 billion is much more a threat to Russia (even though that's 8 billion less then Russia spent on just the Olympics) than say the 55 trillion dollars of debt the US has amassed.

This is what Russia will do. Loan the 42 to these territories for 0% interest.

FatAndy
20-07-2015, 18:05
Here is another long-term problem that can be helped now or punted into the future when it will take on disastrous proportions.
:agree: Thanks for your instant care and attention, comrade! :D

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 18:33
I just read Bloomberg is saying Russia is the best place to invest in 2015 of all BRICS countries. Says Russia is way under valued.

RL?


www.rt.com

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 18:35
:agree: Thanks for your instant care and attention, comrade! :D


Don't you mean constant care. Seems like a few times a day he is doing his best to help Russia. Maybe he should get a medal or something?

FatAndy
20-07-2015, 18:57
Don't you mean constant care.
Instant. Like coffee.


Maybe he should get a medal or something?
Wooden one ;)


I just read Bloomberg is saying Russia is the best place to invest in 2015 of all BRICS countries. Says Russia is way under valued.
Gloomberg is damned rotten Western agency, how can you trust them? :grind:

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 18:58
Instant. Like coffee.


Wooden one ;)



We used to have these baseball hats in America that said " Instant a**hole just add alcohol"

A wooden medal? Shaped like a baseball bat?

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 18:59
Instant. Like coffee.


Wooden one ;)


Gloomberg is damned rotten Western agency, how can you trust them? :grind:



I don't but fenrir can't say that.

FatAndy
20-07-2015, 19:00
A wooden medal? Shaped like a baseball bat?
Feel free to choose the shape. Or ask the winner.

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 19:02
I just read Bloomberg is saying Russia is the best place to invest in 2015 of all BRICS countries. Says Russia is way under valued.

RL?


www.rt.com

Theoretically, maybe. In practice - who will invest under such toxic conditions? Or you have any info there a line of clamorous investors behind the door?

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 19:20
Theoretically, maybe. In practice - who will invest under such toxic conditions? Or you have any info there a line of clamorous investors behind the door?



I don't know. Maybe some brave people will or maybe some Russian money will come back?


This just in; the Mexican peso takes a dive! Goes to the lowest since 2008! Now standing at 16 to the dollar.


I looking at October for the EU to crash and maybe Japan, then world wide crisis.

Nobbynumbnuts
20-07-2015, 19:36
Theoretically, maybe. In practice - who will invest under such toxic conditions? Or you have any info there a line of clamorous investors behind the door?

..aks him how many countries there are in the world. Then, how many BRICS?

There's one born every minute! :D

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 19:49
Originally Posted by Russian Lad View Post
Theoretically, maybe. In practice - who will invest under such toxic conditions? Or you have any info there a line of clamorous investors behind the door?
..aks him how many countries there are in the world. Then, how many BRICS?

There's one born every minute!

True. Well, I think it is some sort of trolling, Bloomberg or no Bloomberg. I mean, China is in BRICS, I don't see a downpour of heavy investments, they even refused to invest into this Sila Sibiri gas pipeline, as I understand. And Brasil or India investing into Russia, we are not hearing much about that either.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 20:47
True. Well, I think it is some sort of trolling, Bloomberg or no Bloomberg. I mean, China is in BRICS, I don't see a downpour of heavy investments, they even refused to invest into this Sila Sibiri gas pipeline, as I understand. And Brasil or India investing into Russia, we are not hearing much about that either.


No you don't understand, out of all countries who are in BRICS Russia is the best one to invest in 2015.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 20:50
..aks him how many countries there are in the world. Then, how many BRICS?

There's one born every minute! :D



There are 5 countries in BRICS and they make up 40% of the worlds economy.

Russian Lad
20-07-2015, 21:14
No you don't understand, out of all countries who are in BRICS Russia is the best one to invest in 2015.

It is you who doesn't understand - BRICS is supposed to be a "close family", so even if the "family" members are not really investing, why it should be attractive to outsiders? Just common sense.

Uncle Wally
20-07-2015, 21:56
It is you who doesn't understand - BRICS is supposed to be a "close family", so even if the "family" members are not really investing, why it should be attractive to outsiders? Just common sense.



It is not a closed family and a return on their investment is why they will get. BRICS can grow to BRICS+ but the country/countries must be sovereign states ( without USA pulling the strings) and have a good enough economy I guess. Greece was asked about joining their bank for instance.

fenrir
22-07-2015, 13:54
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-losing-out-on-chinese-fdi/525983.html

Uncle Wally
22-07-2015, 14:34
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-losing-out-on-chinese-fdi/525983.html



And that Australia is a bigger risk. Says China's investment is down 25% in Russia and 39% in Australia.


Hooray we're better than Australia!

Russian Lad
24-07-2015, 21:26
The ruble is crashing. 83% of legal entities are playing against the ruble - long positions. Only two days ago 60% held the positions against the dollar.
Show time.... :beerbros:

vossy7
24-07-2015, 21:31
The ruble is crashing. 83% of legal entities are playing against the ruble - long positions. Only two days ago 60% held the positions against the dollar.
Show time.... :beerbros:

Hey RL, hope you are well , we have just adopted a couple of orphan cats and we don't really give two hoots about politics , have a great weekend my illustrious friend :drink:

Russian Lad
24-07-2015, 21:34
Hey RL, hope you are well , we have just adopted a couple of orphan cats and we don't really give two hoots about politics , have a great weekend my illustrious friend

I am happy for you, Vossy.:) Wish you a nice weekend. However, the thread is about economics, not about politics. Was it Churchill who said: "If you are not interested in politics it doesn't mean politics are not interested in you"?:mooooh::eh::celebrate:

vossy7
24-07-2015, 21:51
I am happy for you, Vossy.:) Wish you a nice weekend. However, the thread is about economics, not about politics. Was it Churchill who said: "If you are not interested in politics it doesn't mean politics are not interested in you"?:mooooh::eh::celebrate:

RL.....as you have probably noticed I steer away from the usual wearisome posts about religion and politics.....

Society exists only as a mental concept; in the real world there are only individuals.... Oscar .... just like you mate :beerbros:

Russian Lad
24-07-2015, 21:57
Society exists only as a mental concept; in the real world there are only individuals....

If it was true, we would live in anarchy.:) I am not saying it would necessarily be bad, mind it. I don't really know.:)

Nobbynumbnuts
24-07-2015, 22:32
I haven't had much time to follow events this week but i think the slide in the value of the rouble is down to events in China.
The Chinese economy is slowing, causing the value of commodities to slide. Oil is a commodity so that's falling along with all the others. As well as lower demand for oil there's over supply in the market and with Iran increasing production the outlook is poor for oil and therefore the rouble...

Russian Lad
26-07-2015, 17:37
As was a year ago predicted to happen in Summer 2015? What makes you think the RUB economy will collapse, again? Daily ruble falls and gains on the currency market? I would not invest in the stock market if I were you- betting on futuregains or losses based solely on current performance is a sure way to loe your shirt

As of now, 84% of the players on the market are playing against the ruble, long term legs: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/krupnye-treydery-massovo-poteryali-veru-v-rubl-1000738070. And the ruble is falling (let's remember the summer is not over yet, and as we say in Russia, цыплят по осени считают - don't count your chickens before the autumn comes). So, those were not very far-fetched predictions. A lot of negative factors are at play, and they have begun engendering totally new ones - so, a domino effect seems to be in the pipeline, leading to a significant decline.

Uncle Wally
27-07-2015, 00:17
As of now, 84% of the players on the market are playing against the ruble, long term legs: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/krupnye-treydery-massovo-poteryali-veru-v-rubl-1000738070. And the ruble is falling (let's remember the summer is not over yet, and as we say in Russia, цыплят по осени считают - don't count your chickens before the autumn comes). So, those were not very far-fetched predictions. A lot of negative factors are at play, and they have begun engendering totally new ones - so, a domino effect seems to be in the pipeline, leading to a significant decline.


Yes it's a domino effect and the ruble won't stand but it will be more what happens after currencies start to fall. The Russian government is trying to prepare for this. Lets hope they are, but you are forgetting one thing! The resiliency of Russian people and the fact that Russia has been through a hell of a lot and unlike other countries have not modernized as much as others have. We can be taken with the technology of the modern world but all it would take to stave a modern country today would be to cut the electricity. Fortunately the average Russian still knows how to grow his own food. The average American doesn't.

Russian Lad
27-07-2015, 00:58
Yes it's a domino effect and the ruble won't stand but it will be more what happens after currencies start to fall. The Russian government is trying to prepare for this. Lets hope they are, but you are forgetting one thing! The resiliency of Russian people and the fact that Russia has been through a hell of a lot and unlike other countries have not modernized as much as others have. We can be taken with the technology of the modern world but all it would take to stave a modern country today would be to cut the electricity. Fortunately the average Russian still knows how to grow his own food. The average American doesn't.

Please share with us more insights regarding your first two sentences here. :10293: That's a new tune in your fiddle, I would like to learn more details. As to your other claims, now what - you want me to begin learning how to grow popatoes and hens on my balcony? Resilience is a great attribute, but the younger generation of Russians, they are not used to hardships, they want their iphones and they want to consume, to be successful, to travel around the world, not to be growing their own food... Doubt they will like standing in lines for food like it happens in Venezuela now... It is a (mouse)trap, Wally... Will they happily digest propaganda on empty stomachs? Remains to be seen.

Carl
27-07-2015, 12:36
Yes that's right but I think I said it was the Euro that will go first, people may try to hide in the dollar but that will be next.

Can we expect the Ruble to finnaly be 'King' after the fall? Or has that prediction fell into the dustbin of history?

fenrir
27-07-2015, 12:37
Yes that's right but I think I said it was the Euro that will go first, people may try to hide in the dollar but that will be next.

This is almost as good as certain posters recently claiming there would be Russian bases in Greece.

Russian Lad
27-07-2015, 12:43
Wally, are you sulking and not talking to us anymore? Euro is +1.56 rubles since the morning, it is 12.37 now. What's happening? Euro is collapsing by growing, a reverse osmosis process of sorts? I am totally confused, because I trust you. Please clarify. I have bought a lot of rubles because I trust you, comrade. :question:

Uncle Wally
27-07-2015, 15:23
Wally, are you sulking and not talking to us anymore? Euro is +1.56 rubles since the morning, it is 12.37 now. What's happening? Euro is collapsing by growing, a reverse osmosis process of sorts? I am totally confused, because I trust you. Please clarify. I have bought a lot of rubles because I trust you, comrade. :question:


Like I have nothing better to do?


This is not some big crash, people are not staving and Russia has not collapsed.

I stand by a big problem for the Euro in Oct. We'll just have to wait and see won't we.

Uncle Wally
27-07-2015, 15:26
BTW.. Who do you suspect financed this self appointed delegation's travel expenses? I wonder if booze and prostitutes were part of the package..?����



The funny thing is Carl that the people in Crimea are doing fine while the people of Ukraine are far from it.

Nobbynumbnuts
27-07-2015, 20:27
..another very large fall (-8.5%) on the Chinese stock market (Shanghai Composite) today. The largest for 8 years! All brought on by the slowing Chinese economy, which is bad news for the oil price and the rouble. Both of which fell again today.
All eyes on China tomorrow..

fenrir
27-07-2015, 21:13
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-china-gas-relationship-rocks-000000182.html

The Chinese certainly aren't stupid and Moscow (Putin) seems to have totally underestimated them.

Carl
27-07-2015, 21:19
http://dw.com/p/1G5Iu

Seems Putin's (and Willy's) thurst for gold has cost Russia billions...

Nobbynumbnuts
27-07-2015, 21:49
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-china-gas-relationship-rocks-000000182.html

The Chinese certainly aren't stupid and Moscow (Putin) seems to have totally underestimated them.

..very difficult for the Kremlin to negotiate a multi billion dollar gas deal with China if commodity prices are falling sharply. Going to come down to who needs the deal to succeed the most.

Nobbynumbnuts
27-07-2015, 21:53
http://dw.com/p/1G5Iu

Seems Putin's (and Willy's) thurst for gold has cost Russia billions...

Yes, the value of the Kremlins gold reserves have lost around $15 billion (approx. 30%) Gold has been trashed along with all other commodities...

nicklcool
27-07-2015, 23:18
As of now, 84% of the players on the market are playing against the ruble, long term legs: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/krupnye-treydery-massovo-poteryali-veru-v-rubl-1000738070. And the ruble is falling

RL, thanks for the link, I need and appreciate the Russian language practice. But even for a moderate Russian reader like me, I noticed noticed lots of ho-hum wishy-washy predictions in the article.

And pardon me, I wrote that you base your entire argument the the RF economy is/will soon fail on the daily shucks and jives of the currency exchange rate, and then you post a link to an article about....the currency exchange rate! I ask for the umpteenth time: is this all your argument is based on? That's quite a flimsy house of cards. :bash:

Anyone can post links about daily anecdotal happenings and claim that they show the overall health/weakness of the RF economy:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/27/reuters-america-update-2-mitsubishi-motors-production-hubs-will-be-japan-se-asia-russia.html
:stop:

Where is your long-term analytical proof? We all had to take micro/macro economics in College - dust off your textbooks! What is it beyond corruption and lower prices for fossil fuels that will tank Russia? If there is nothing beyond these two points, riddle me this:

Why did the RF survive low fossil fuel prices and corruption throughout the 2000s, but now she will drown by those same causes?? :nerd:

Nobbynumbnuts
27-07-2015, 23:45
.....Why did the RF survive low fossil fuel prices and corruption throughout the 2000s, but now she will drown by those same causes?? :nerd:

..perhaps i can help.

Where did you get the notion that the 2000's were a time of low fossil fuel prices?
Check the following link and you'll clearly see that the 2000's were a time of unprecedented boom for practically all commodities, including oil. The rising oil price through that time reflects almost exactly the boom in the Russian economy, 2003 to the financial crisis

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

rumple_stilskin
28-07-2015, 00:02
It's difficult to see how the Russian economy is going to do badly when the country has:
1. Free oil
2. Free natural resources
3. Zero debt
4. Free incoming money from the sale of Oil/resources it can never use(too much available)

Even if the countries leadership team are completely stupid it is still going to do well.

Russian Lad
28-07-2015, 00:31
And pardon me, I wrote that you base your entire argument the the RF economy is/will soon fail on the daily shucks and jives of the currency exchange rate, and then you post a link to an article about....the currency exchange rate! I ask for the umpteenth time: is this all your argument is based on? That's quite a flimsy house of cards.

If you have noticed only that, you are not paying attention. Why should I waste my time repeating the same stuff? Sorry, I am not going to do that.
And once again, - для тех, кто в танке, - I don't think it will be like a complete collapse, but a serious deterioration of the already flimsy standard of living of an average Ivan - it is already occurring and is confirmed even by the official statistics. You live and think in some sort of a bubble if you are just ignoring all that. Not that I mind this, entirely up to you.
The currency rates are rather important though, because most of the products here (80%? 90%?) are imported, it is fully reflected on the prices. But of course it is not only about the currencies.

Fantastika
28-07-2015, 00:52
..perhaps i can help.

Where did you get the notion that the 2000's were a time of low fossil fuel prices?
Check the following link and you'll clearly see that the 2000's were a time of unprecedented boom for practically all commodities, including oil. The rising oil price through that time reflects almost exactly the boom in the Russian economy, 2003 to the financial crisis

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

You just proved Nickkool's point - prices were lower for oil, from 2000-2007, than they are today. .

Uncle Wally
28-07-2015, 01:29
You just proved Nickkool's point - prices were lower for oil, from 2000-2007, than they are today. .



It was after the US attacked Iraq that oil started to climb.

Uncle Wally
28-07-2015, 01:33
http://dw.com/p/1G5Iu

Seems Putin's (and Willy's) thurst for gold has cost Russia billions...



You miss the whole point. Goes right over your little head.

Russian Lad
28-07-2015, 02:21
You miss the whole point. Goes right over your little head.

I think I am missing the point too, Wally. Can you kindly explain it to me?

Nobbynumbnuts
28-07-2015, 07:50
I think I am missing the point too, Wally. Can you kindly explain it to me?

..perhaps a bottle of vodka will help us all understand? lol :p

fenrir
28-07-2015, 09:40
It's difficult to see how the Russian economy is going to do badly when the country has:
1. Free oil
2. Free natural resources
3. Zero debt
4. Free incoming money from the sale of Oil/resources it can never use(too much available)

Even if the countries leadership team are completely stupid it is still going to do well.

First off, natural resources have extraction and transport costs, some of which are quite high. Then there are the inefficiency and corruption costs, which in Russia, are huge.

Judge
29-07-2015, 09:44
If we are close to the bottom or already there then the only way is up
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/business/article/is-the-worst-of-russias-economic-crisis-over/526316.html

Judge
29-07-2015, 09:52
First off, natural resources have extraction and transport costs, some of which are quite high. Then there are the inefficiency and corruption costs, which in Russia, are huge.
Russia's got one of the lowest costs for extraction, read somehwere that Lukoil can still make a profit if oil goes down to 25$.

Uncle Wally
29-07-2015, 12:44
I think I am missing the point too, Wally. Can you kindly explain it to me?


Somehow I don't think you'll get it either but yeah you don't sound like as much of deviant as some others here.

It's for a real rainy day RL

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 01:38
Russia's got one of the lowest costs for extraction

That's totally wrong. Most of Russia's oil is hard to get (unlike, say, in the Middle East where it is often rather close to the ground). Its avergage is slightly over USD 40 per barrel in Russia (compare it with the Saudi Arabia's 20 per barrel). That is, even before we talk about the quality. What makes the matters much worse, many Russian on-shore oil fields are approaching depletion (say, in the Western Siberia, in the areas like Kogalym and so forth), opening new fields is costly and requires Western technology (as well as big investments and _time_ for ROI).


It's for a real rainy day RL

Being enigmatic will not score you any points here, Wally, my name is not Natasha or Masha.:)

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 02:04
That's totally wrong. Most of Russia's oil is hard to get (unlike, say, in the Middle East where it is often rather close to the ground). Its avergage is slightly over USD 40 per barrel in Russia (compare it with the Saudi Arabia's 20 per barrel). That is, even before we talk about the quality. What makes the matters much worse, many Russian on-shore oil fields are approaching depletion (say, in the Western Siberia, in the areas like Kogalym and so forth), opening new fields is costly and requires Western technology (as well as big investments and _time_ for ROI).






Being enigmatic will not score you any points here, Wally, my name is not Natasha or Masha.:)


Your name should be Natasha. You sound like a little girl so much.



If you had been paying attention you would have seen that western companies have been making deal in Russia sanctions or no sanctions. Russia has a lot of oil and the problem is more with the economic downturn in the west, ( less demand for oil because less people are using it because of a lack of commerce. If less people are driving to buy stuff they don't really need the the trucks that bring the stuff they don't really need have to drive less so need less oil, it's more a failure of the western system than any thing to do with Russia.

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 02:15
Your name should be Natasha. You sound like a little girl so much.



If you had been paying attention you would have seen that western companies have been making deal in Russia sanctions or no sanctions. Russia has a lot of oil and the problem is more with the economic downturn in the west, ( less demand for oil because less people are using it because of a lack of commerce. If less people are driving to buy stuff they don't really need the the trucks that bring the stuff they don't really need have to drive less so need less oil, it's more a failure of the western system than any thing to do with Russia.

Wonder how many oil companies you have worked for, Wally. I have worked for some. Have you ever even been to a Russian oil rig, at least on a schoolchildren tour? What you have written is just total nonsense and a lame attempt to divert attention, I don't even feel like commenting on it.


Your name should be Natasha. You sound like a little girl so much.

You fantasizing I am a woman tells me you have latent gay proclivities, Wally. And it is not for the first time, either. Better be careful with that in Russia.:)

fenrir
30-07-2015, 06:52
Your name should be Natasha. You sound like a little girl so much.



If you had been paying attention you would have seen that western companies have been making deal in Russia sanctions or no sanctions. Russia has a lot of oil and the problem is more with the economic downturn in the west, ( less demand for oil because less people are using it because of a lack of commerce. If less people are driving to buy stuff they don't really need the the trucks that bring the stuff they don't really need have to drive less so need less oil, it's more a failure of the western system than any thing to do with Russia.

Economic downturn in the West? It is Russia that has a negative 4.2% growth rate, not the rest of Europe.

Judge
30-07-2015, 08:42
That's totally wrong. Most of Russia's oil is hard to get (unlike, say, in the Middle East where it is often rather close to the ground). Its avergage is slightly over USD 40 per barrel in Russia (compare it with the Saudi Arabia's 20 per barrel). That is, even before we talk about the quality. What makes the matters much worse, many Russian on-shore oil fields are approaching depletion (say, in the Western Siberia, in the areas like Kogalym and so forth), opening new fields is costly and requires Western technology (as well as big investments and _time_ for ROI).



Being enigmatic will not score you any points here, Wally, my name is not Natasha or Masha.:)

I did say "one" not the lowest,we discussed this last time and I pointed out that Rosnefts cost for lifting oil was as low as 6$, and now they are begging for money.
I read else where that Russia discovered a new oil field that's one (again there is that one) of the biggest find ever , more times bigger than America's most profitable shale fields.

Here's link to Russia's new find,old news now ,but.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/04/bakken-bazhenov-shale-oil/

If anyone is interested, a more up to date article on Bazhenov,
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL6N0PR1OP20140716?irpc=932

I guess this is one way to try and stir the pot.


In 1980 and again in 1985, the Soviet government detonated small nuclear devices underground in the West Siberia oilfields in an attempt to stimulate production.

The experiments were code-named Project Angara and Project Benzene respectively, and were among 21 nuclear explosions conducted by the ministries of oil and geology to stimulate oil and gas production between 1965 and 1987.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 11:33
http://dw.com/p/1G5Iu

Seems Putin's (and Willy's) thurst for gold has cost Russia billions...



Seems Carl did the kamikaze.

AstarD
30-07-2015, 11:38
He must have written something that has been deleted, or a nasty personal message. What did he possibly post to get banned?

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 11:45
Carl seem to like insulting FatAndy and the last few post I saw from Carl were just that.

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 11:53
I pointed out that Rosnefts cost for lifting oil was as low as 6$

Any reliable link to prove this or you took it from your head? It may be the case for some oil fields, but it is certainly not the case on average for Russia. I worked in the West Siberia on oil rigs, I assure you they are reaching depletion and new ones hardly open due to costs and also lack of proper expertise/now to some extent even equipment.
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/26/russias-oil-fire-292090.html

Russia’s average cost of oil production, according to London-based consulting firm Energy Aspects, is a shade over $40 per barrel, slightly under the global average of $50. (Saudi Arabia’s, by contrast, is just over $20 per barrel.)
You are like Wally, have begun living in a Dreamland? Does the reality hurt that much these days?:) No separate thread to discuss the Boeing veto, heh?:)

FatAndy
30-07-2015, 12:21
He must have written something that has been deleted, or a nasty personal message. What did he possibly post to get banned?
He was "projecting" his own personal issues onto me in non-polite manner, and didn't understand my hints to stop. Insha alla.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 12:26
He was "projecting" his own personal issues onto me in non-polite manner, and didn't understand my hints to stop. Insha alla.



There are things you just don't do, like spit into the wind, pull the mask off the old lone ranger and you don't mess around with FatAndy.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 12:30
Seems the ruble is going the other way now^ up. Russia central bank had been buying 200 million dollars a day since May. What's Mr "doom and gloom have to say?

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 12:38
Seems the ruble is going the other way now^ up. Russia central bank had been buying 200 million dollars a month since May. What's Mr "doom and gloom have to say?

It is actually 58 copecks down since the morning, not sure how it signifies the "way up". Besides, such swings are creating waves of instability. I am actually sure this "currencies trading" is 100% controlled at certain points (the proof - I posed earlier from the trading archives, with the same 00.000 numbers for the whole day of trading, sometimes for 2 days in a row, the same 00.000 number for the trading day beginning and the trading day ending), but at certain points they get tired of controlling it (guess it requires burning USD) and let it go its natural course to see what happens (and maybe to let certain people make money off it), then the rate begins spiking. It will be back to 90-100+ eventually, it is just a matter of time. I don't think it will bring a doomsday scenario, but it will certainly make the life of an ordinary Ivan even more miserable, most likely making him line up for cheaper food in supermarkets and maybe even hoard on groceries. We will see. Venezuela is there already:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJIjlitYRj8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMDVogPZMnU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ajw9L0jDHQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A61DqjKKQak
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lu4n9lhv6dY

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 13:16
It is actually 58 copecks down since the morning, not sure how it signifies the "way up". Besides, such swings are creating waves of instability. I am actually sure this "currencies trading" is 100% controlled at certain points (the proof - I posed earlier from the trading archives, with the same 00.000 numbers for the whole day of trading, sometimes for 2 days in a row, the same 00.000 number for the trading day beginning and the trading day ending), but at certain points they get tired of controlling it (guess it requires burning USD) and let it go its natural course to see what happens (and maybe to let certain people make money off it), then the rate begins spiking. It will be back to 90-100+ eventually, it is just a matter of time. I don't think it will bring a doomsday scenario, but it will certainly make the life of an ordinary Ivan even more miserable, most likely making him line up for cheaper food in supermarkets and maybe even hoard on groceries. We will see. Venezuela is there already:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJIjlitYRj8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMDVogPZMnU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ajw9L0jDHQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A61DqjKKQak
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lu4n9lhv6dY



I just look at Yandex and it's 58 something for tomorrow and it was 59 today and 60 yesterday. That to me is "going up".

fenrir
30-07-2015, 13:28
Seems the ruble is going the other way now^ up. Russia central bank had been buying 200 million dollars a day since May. What's Mr "doom and gloom have to say?

It drops several rubles per euro in a day and you are AWOL. It then goes up kopecks and suddenly you return to hail a era of new prosperity. Par for the course. Btw, Russia has lost 15 billion dollars recently on its gold. Where is your brilliant 'gold is going to be king' theory now?

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 13:53
I just look at Yandex and it's 58 something for tomorrow and it was 59 today and 60 yesterday. That to me is "going up".

Lol, yandex. You are gullible like a Natasha. Wally, bother looking at online trading instead (Euro - +82 copecks since yesterday right now, at 13.47., dollar - 90 copecks - that's besides what Fenrir has mentioned already):

http://www.finanz.ru/valyuty/EUR-RUB

http://www.finanz.ru/valyuty/USD-RUB


Where is your brilliant 'gold is going to be king' theory now?

Let me guess - flushed down the emerald toilet in the diamond Wally Dreamland?

Judge
30-07-2015, 13:57
Any reliable link to prove this or you took it from your head? It may be the case for some oil fields, but it is certainly not the case on average for Russia. I worked in the West Siberia on oil rigs, I assure you they are reaching depletion and new ones hardly open due to costs and also lack of proper expertise/now to some extent even equipment.
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/26/russias-oil-fire-292090.html

You are like Wally, have begun living in a Dreamland? Does the reality hurt that much these days?:) No separate thread to discuss the Boeing veto, heh?:)

Like I told you before, I make it up as I go along,
Do your own googling,I just read,some of their oil lifting costs is as little as $4.


Russia’s average cost of oil production, according to London-based consulting firm Energy Aspects, is a shade over $40 per barrel, slightly under the global average of $50. (Saudi Arabia’s, by contrast, is just over $20 per barrel.)
You are like Wally, have begun living in a Dreamland? Does the reality hurt that much these days?

Of course not all fields,some are more costly than others. ..we are getting sidetracked ,yes or no, Russia has one of the lowest extraction costs in the world? We can discuss new/old oil fields all day long.

You are only comparing Russia to KSA,.

about $4

which is the best per unit level among the world's public oil companies.

Start a thread about the veto if you like.

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 14:03
Like I told you before, I make it up as I go along,
Do your own googling,I just read,some of their oil lifting costs is as little as $4.
Of course not all fields,some are more costly than others. ..we are getting sidetracked ,yes or no, Russia has one of the lowest extraction costs in the world? We can discuss new/old pil fields all day long.
about $4

Provide us reliable links please where it says Russia averages USD 6 per barrel. I gave you a link where it says it is 40+, it happens to coincide with what I learned when I worked in the oil industry. If we don't see any reliable links, - yes, you are taking it from your head. USD6 - the oil must be gushing from the surface (high quality oil) when you poke a stick into the ground.


Start a thread about the veto if you like.

What for? To me everything is pretty clear now (I did have some doubts before), there is nothing I would like to discuss. I just found it funny that Wally hasn't jumped onto this big news, that's all.:)

Judge
30-07-2015, 14:15
Provide us reliable links please where it says Russia averages USD 6 per barrel. I gave you a link where it says it is 40+, it happens to coincide with what I learned when I worked in the oil industry. If we don't see any reliable links, - yes, you are taking it from your head. USD6 - the oil must be gushing from the surface (high quality oil) when you poke a stick into the ground.



What for? To me everything is pretty clear now (I did have some doubts before), there is nothing I would like to discuss. I just found it funny that Wally hasn't jumped onto this big news, that's all.:)


For the whole country,Russia ,I agree, production cost is about $40, which I'll repeat for the very last time, is one of the lowest in the world,now the reason for this is cos companies like Rosneft lift some of its oil at a cost below $10.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 14:27
I just looked it up and found $4 a barrel but it depends on the well. Some cost 12 to $15 and some of that is because Russia sells oil at home for much less than export.

Russian Lad
30-07-2015, 14:27
For the whole country,Russia ,I agree, production cost is about $40, which I'll repeat for the very last time, is one of the lowest in the world

40 is 100% higher than 20 in the Saudi Arabia, so I am not sure how it qualifies for being "one of the lowest". It is not low in Russia, despite your claims.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 14:32
40 is 100% higher than 20 in the Saudi Arabia, so I am not sure how it qualifies for being "one of the lowest". It is not low in Russia, despite your claims.


If all the rest are higher it would qualify it as one of the lowest, duh.

Uncle Wally
30-07-2015, 14:35
It drops several rubles per euro in a day and you are AWOL. It then goes up kopecks and suddenly you return to hail a era of new prosperity. Par for the course. Btw, Russia has lost 15 billion dollars recently on its gold. Where is your brilliant 'gold is going to be king' theory now?


I will stick by the gold will be king theory until it happens.


And it will happen, it always has.

Nobbynumbnuts
31-07-2015, 00:34
It's pretty irrelevant what Russia's oil production costs are. If the markets thought that an oil price of $56 pbl was viable for Russia, the rouble wouldn't be at it's current level.. ;)

Russian Lad
31-07-2015, 01:41
If all the rest are higher it would qualify it as one of the lowest, duh.

So, you claim all the rest are higher. Fine, you have a reliable link I can take a look at, confirming that? I think you have been wrong AGAIN...

This link totally debunks your claim (the link is from 2009, but I am guessing today these numbers are pretty close), now that we have agreed that Russia's average is 40 (a good dozen of oil exporting countries average well below 30): http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728

nicklcool
31-07-2015, 06:37
If you have noticed only that, you are not paying attention. Why should I waste my time repeating the same stuff? Sorry, I am not going to do that.


This is the entire basis of your argument. You have written it half a dozen times at least- "I refuse to repeat myself."
But again, I will repeat, in the dozens of pages of posts here, the only rationale you've offered for Russia's impending downfall are:
1. consistently falling currency exchange rate.
2. uncontrollable corruption
3. a hatred of Putin almost rooted in psychological complexes
4. sanctions
5. the unavoidable near term collapse of natural resource prices.
6. Anecdotal stories of layoffs and poverty (the video of festival-goers enjoying crepes, which you passed off to gullible non English speakers as the government handing out free food to desparate citizens, was just classic :thumbsup: )

I propose the Russian economy short term is and will struggle but will be OK long term, because:
1. RF spends a lesser proportion of GDP on social welfare programs
2. And a greater proportion of GDP on the military
3. RF is pursuing programs like materinskyi kapital to grow the population vs. increasing illegal immigration as some countries are doing
4. RF is promoting Russian language culture and history to its citizens while other countries' governments are as a matter of public policy denigrating their cultures to their citizens
4a. So RF is fostering love of country while for example USA foments hatred for itself
5. Fossil fuels are and will be the dominant energy source for a loooong time (certainly longer than the time period you're predicting for domino chaos in RF)
6. These sanctions cannot stand long term. Too many EU members rely on RF be it for import or export.
7. Flat tax rate vs. progressive tax rate encourages more economic activity
8. RF relies less on consumer spending and especially borrowing for her economic growth.



So the proverbial lines in the sand are drawn. I guess what both RL and I have are opinions, not facts. So, who agrees with whom? And what other factors do you think there are that will spell doom/prosperity for the RF economy??

Uncle Wally
31-07-2015, 08:35
OPEC says oil will not go any lower.

fenrir
31-07-2015, 08:44
Russian debtors despair as boom turns to bust

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33717488

On top of everything else, now there is this. More people are going to slide into poverty and more damage is going to be done to the financial system when many of these loans are not paid back. It's a double loss to the national economy.

FatAndy
31-07-2015, 08:51
Russian debtors despair as boom turns to bust

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33717488

On top of everything else, now there is this. More people are going to slide into poverty and more damage is going to be done to the financial system when many of these loans are not paid back. It's a double loss to the national economy.
It's really, really terrible. Poor Russians, damned rotten bloody regime...:D

TolkoRaz
31-07-2015, 09:40
VVP's popularity has never been so high - Are there any other leaders who could claim anywhere near 86% support of the adult populace?

I think not!

fenrir
31-07-2015, 10:31
VVP's popularity has never been so high - Are there any other leaders who could claim anywhere near 86% support of the adult populace?

I think not!

That's because people are afraid to say publicly what they really think because they can and almost certainly will face repurcussions. I just returned from my second trip to Russia (Moscow and Rostov) and what I heard in private conversations is something totally from official numbers. I'm off to the Crimea in the next days and I will see what the situation there is really like.

FatAndy
31-07-2015, 11:03
I just returned from my second trip to Russia (Moscow and Rostov) and what I heard in private conversations is something totally from official numbers.
What, you heard it's closer to 99,9? :jawdrop:


I'm off to the Crimea in the next days and I will see what the situation there is really like.
What, The Darkest One paid the trip, girls an booze?:)

Anyway - welcome, comrade!

Russian Lad
31-07-2015, 12:21
Nicklcool, you are just a troll, it seems. 6 million more Russians within less than a year below the poverty line, the national currency devalued by 100%, rampant prices on pretty much everything and you act as if nothing seriously negative is happening. Once again, I don't debate with trolls, Wally being an exception because he is sort of amusing. What you describe as impossible is happening right now in full swing.


I think not!

Think again...


I'm off to the Crimea in the next days and I will see what the situation there is really like.

Better take cash with you. I have a friend there now, he is saying local banks either don't work at all or charge exorbitant fees for transactions.

fenrir
31-07-2015, 12:44
Nicklcool, you are just a troll, it seems. 6 million more Russians within less than a year below the poverty line, the national currency devalued by 100%, rampant prices on pretty much everything and you act as if nothing seriously negative is happening. Once again, I don't debate with trolls, Wally being an exception because he is sort of amusing. What you describe as impossible is happening right now in full swing.



Think again...



Better take cash with you. I have a friend there now, he is saying local banks either don't work at all or charge exorbitant fees for transactions.

I already have 120,000 rubles with a 1000 euro reserve. Accommodation is already taken care of. Will be there 15 days with the family.

FatAndy
31-07-2015, 12:55
with a 1000 euro reserve.
Don't change in doubtful places, ask reliable locals where they do.

Russian Lad
31-07-2015, 12:55
I already have 120,000 rubles with a 1000 euro reserve. Accommodation is already taken care of. Will be there 15 days with the family.

Nice.:)

nicklcool
31-07-2015, 13:49
Nicklcool, you are just a troll, it seems. 6 million more Russians within less than a year below the poverty line, the national currency devalued by 100%, rampant prices on pretty much everything and you act as if nothing seriously negative is happening. Once again, I don't debate with trolls.

You don't debate with trolls or you don't debate when you have nothing to add tonthe conversation? As I said, the economy is bad right now but the fundamentals do not point to the long term doom you predict for the country.
Go ahead, Western troll, post some more Forex data, or better yet you can but a ticker in your signature line and save us all the bloviating. :thumbsup:

TolkoRaz
31-07-2015, 14:14
Bloviating! :book:

Nice word :)

For everybody else's education, if required:

Bloviation is a style of empty, pompous political speech particularly associated with Ohio due to the term's popularization by United States President Warren G. Harding, who, himself a master of the technique, described it as "the art of speaking for as long as the occasion warrants, and saying nothing". The verb "to bloviate" is the act of creating bloviation. In terms of its etymology, according to one source, the word is a "compound of blow, in its sense of 'to boast' (also in another typical Americanism, blowhard), with a mock-Latin ending to give it the self-important stature implicit in its meaning."

Russian Lad
31-07-2015, 14:17
You don't debate with trolls or you don't debate when you have nothing to add tonthe conversation? As I said, the economy is bad right now but the fundamentals do not point to the long term doom you predict for the country.
Go ahead, Western troll, post some more Forex data, or better yet you can but a ticker in your signature line and save us all the bloviating. :thumbsup:

If the fundamentals were great (there were all the chances one can imagine to make them great, with the oil around and over 100 for years), it would not be bad right now. And there are all the fundamentals in place one can imagine to make it much worse in the near future. You ignore it all - fine with me. Unlike you, I live in Russia, Russian is my mother tongue, I have a Russian passport - so I may know a bit more about the situation in Russia than a Cool Nick living in the US and offering his "expert opinion" on the situation in Russia from the comfort of his American home... You do sound like an Olgino troll though, you may not even be located in the US. Who knows. Keep typing for the sake of typing, if you want. The dollar is 61 already, the euro - 67. All is just f...ing great. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J88-RdWnNT0

fenrir
31-07-2015, 17:02
Bloviating! :book:

Nice word :)

For everybody else's education, if required:

Bloviation is a style of empty, pompous political speech particularly associated with Ohio due to the term's popularization by United States President Warren G. Harding, who, himself a master of the technique, described it as "the art of speaking for as long as the occasion warrants, and saying nothing". The verb "to bloviate" is the act of creating bloviation. In terms of its etymology, according to one source, the word is a "compound of blow, in its sense of 'to boast' (also in another typical Americanism, blowhard), with a mock-Latin ending to give it the self-important stature implicit in its meaning."

It's a word Bill O'Reilly from Fox News uses a lot to describe others.