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Nobbynumbnuts
15-04-2015, 00:42
Doing just fine? Teachers in at least two cities not being paid for months, workers at the cosmodrome facing the same problem, Moscow's giant malls are turning into ghost towns, up to 10 million more Russians will likely slip into poverty this year, and most Russians will be spending at least half their income on food by the end of the year and that is fine for you?

Yes, despite a rebound in the rouble from a very low base the economy is in dire straights. Here are the economic highlights:

Russia’s recession deepened - indicators show a broad-based decline in economic activity and increased credit risk.

Crude oil prices averaged in March US$52.8 per barrel−a drop of 3.5 percent.

Inflation increased to 16.9 percent in March−a 13-year high, yet the Central Bank of Russia cut its key rates to support growth.

Poverty increased; the unemployment rate reached 5.8 percent−the highest level in the past two years, and real wages contracted.

It's not looking good....

Judge
15-04-2015, 07:32
Moscow's giant malls are turning into ghost towns

When was the last time you visited a shopping mall here? I drive past Golden Babylon once or twice a week, weekends the place is packed,the outdoor car park is always full...
Of course during the week less busy,I recently visited on Monday and there were many people coming and going, this place isn't easy to reach like others that are very close to the metro stations. ...

The new one that just opened,Avia Park, that isn't fully occupied with shops yet, I remember the same at GB, it took a good year for it to be fully occupied .
I ain't trying to gloss over the situation here, The timing of opening Avia Park wasn't the best for the owners, with the ruble weakening like it did,most probably people do spend less cos prices went up for some goods, but it looks like the ruble has settled, even Apple thinks it's time to lower prices, more companies will follow,


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/apple-cuts-iphones-prices-as-ruble-stabilizes/519102.html


Apple has slashed the prices of iPhones sold through its online store by up to 10 percent as the Russian ruble strengthens.

An iPhone 6 smartphone with a memory of 16 gigabytes now costs 48,990 rubles ($945) on the online store, down from 53,990 rubles ($1042) previously. The price still far exceeds the U.S. retail price of $649 for the phone, Apple's latest model.

I can't say if Moscow has enough malls already, it's seems when driving around the MKAD (western part) all you can see is shopping malls, business centres,at night, the lights easily can distract, bright as Las Vegas in parts:D . With online shopping I would expect less malls in the future....but don't forget Moscow's population is about 12million, and that's not including the tens of thousands who visit everyday,to visit malls too:cool:

fenrir
15-04-2015, 08:20
When was the last time you visited a shopping mall here? I drive past Golden Babylon once or twice a week, weekends the place is packed,the outdoor car park is always full...
Of course during the week less busy,I recently visited on Monday and there were many people coming and going, this place isn't easy to reach like others that are very close to the metro stations. ...

The new one that just opened,Avia Park, that isn't fully occupied with shops yet, I remember the same at GB, it took a good year for it to be fully occupied .
I ain't trying to gloss over the situation here, The timing of opening Avia Park wasn't the best for the owners, with the ruble weakening like it did,most probably people do spend less cos prices went up for some goods, but it looks like the ruble has settled, even Apple thinks it's time to lower prices, more companies will follow,


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/apple-cuts-iphones-prices-as-ruble-stabilizes/519102.html



I can't say if Moscow has enough malls already, it's seems when driving around the MKAD (western part) all you can see is shopping malls, business centres,at night, the lights easily can distract, bright as Las Vegas in parts:D . With online shopping I would expect less malls in the future....but don't forget Moscow's population is about 12million, and that's not including the tens of thousands who visit everyday,to visit malls too:cool:

I'll be in Moscow at some point during the summer so I will see for myself.

fenrir
15-04-2015, 08:26
Who are you trying to fool? Are you fu@king kidding me? Wake the fu!k up. In America people who work in MacDonald's or WalMart have to collect food stamps and you want to talk about Russia? I have friends who are millionaires and friends who are the poorest alcoholics and nobody is complaining. Take your bull elsewhere. We aren't believing it any more. We know what is real. You obviously don't.

The thread is about the economic situation in Russia, not in America. Do try to stay on topic.

Regardless if anyone complains or not (and I know plenty of people in Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg who ARE complaining), it doesn't change the economic facts, nor does it change the fact that the Russian economy will contract this year. Btw, the people who haven't been paid for months ARE complaining rather loudly. You, who pretend to care about the Russian people, are ignoring them in the interest of state propaganda.

Judge
15-04-2015, 08:37
I'll be in Moscow at some point during the summer so I will see for myself.

You'll have the place more or less to yourself, most Moscowvites leave town,to the dacha or overseas, with the ruble on steroids these days, many who put holidays abroad on hold will be leaving too...Also the people who live here from other cities and town leave to visit their families back home.,Summer is a great time to visit....

Judge
15-04-2015, 08:45
Here's a first for Russia,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/business/article/for-first-time-ever-mcdonalds-closes-a-restaurant-in-russia/519066.html

fenrir
15-04-2015, 09:16
You'll have the place more or less to yourself, most Moscowvites leave town,to the dacha or overseas, with the ruble on steroids these days, many who put holidays abroad on hold will be leaving too...Also the people who live here from other cities and town leave to visit their families back home.,Summer is a great time to visit....

I know. I visit almost every summer for 1-2 weeks, but it will be shorter this year because we are also going to Yalta.

Uncle Wally
15-04-2015, 09:27
I know. I visit almost every summer for 1-2 weeks, but it will be shorter this year because we are also going to Yalta.




Won't you be frightened? You know with all the unrest down there.

Uncle Wally
15-04-2015, 09:33
The thread is about the economic situation in Russia, not in America. Do try to stay on topic.

Regardless if anyone complains or not (and I know plenty of people in Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg who ARE complaining), it doesn't change the economic facts, nor does it change the fact that the Russian economy will contract this year. Btw, the people who haven't been paid for months ARE complaining rather loudly. You, who pretend to care about the Russian people, are ignoring them in the interest of state propaganda.



Who hasn't been paid in months? Your lies don't fool anyone.

TolkoRaz
15-04-2015, 09:49
I know. I visit almost every summer for 1-2 weeks, but it will be shorter this year because we are also going to Yalta.

You are going to Yalta, The Russian Federation? :)

fenrir
15-04-2015, 10:17
Who hasn't been paid in months? Your lies don't fool anyone.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/uproar-in-murmansk-as-teachers-salaries-withheld-amid-economic-crisis/518029.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/siberian-teachers-strike-over-pay-delays/517747.html

Then there was the politician who late last year who told teachers to marry rich men so as not to worry about their pay.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/workers-at-russian-cosmodrome-protest-conditions-with-rooftop-sos-to-putin/519108.html

fenrir
15-04-2015, 10:19
You are going to Yalta, The Russian Federation? :)

No, in the occupied region!

FatAndy
15-04-2015, 10:36
The thread is about the economic situation in Russia, not in America. Do try to stay on topic.

Regardless if anyone complains or not (and I know plenty of people in Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg who ARE complaining), it doesn't change the economic facts, nor does it change the fact that the Russian economy will contract this year. Btw, the people who haven't been paid for months ARE complaining rather loudly. You, who pretend to care about the Russian people, are ignoring them in the interest of state propaganda.
No any doubts, it's torn into pieces - your boss has said so. :verycool:

Fantastika
15-04-2015, 10:49
I know. I visit almost every summer for 1-2 weeks, but it will be shorter this year because we are also going to Yalta.

Please write of your experiences there. I am curious, probably everyone else is, too.

Judge
15-04-2015, 13:04
I know. I visit almost every summer for 1-2 weeks, but it will be shorter this year because we are also going to Yalta.

Nice, is it your first time to Yalta, Crimea?
asking cos when I visted, I prefered the smaller resort towns to the over crowded Yalta,like,Novyi Svit,Foros and Alushta.

Fantastika
15-04-2015, 14:25
Nice, is it your first time to Yalta, Crimea?
asking cos when I visted, I prefered the smaller resort towns to the over crowded Yalta,like,Novyi Svit,Foros and Alushta.

Especially since the motel/hotel prices are 1/4 the prices in Yalta. :)

Judge
15-04-2015, 14:59
Especially since the motel/hotel prices are 1/4 the prices in Yalta. :)


Not all, Foros is kinda expensive place , it's where the top Soviets leaders had their dachas,it's suppose to be the posh part of Kim.

In Yalta rented a flat for a few days, decent deals can be found,many locals renting out flats.

I was planning on visiting during the May holidays,and I found Foros to be more expensive than other places,cheaper hotel rooms can be found at Simeiz.

Judge
15-04-2015, 15:04
You are going to Yalta, The Russian Federation? :)

He's doing much needed work for the economy there, good on him,true patriot.:whisper:

fenrir
15-04-2015, 15:54
Please write of your experiences there. I am curious, probably everyone else is, too.

I will. I am very curious to see things for myself without ANY news sources' propaganda.

FatAndy
15-04-2015, 15:54
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/552e4e329a79475dd957f8bf - 2T rub allocated for space exploration program till 2025, Roskosmos says.

fenrir
15-04-2015, 16:01
Nice, is it your first time to Yalta, Crimea?
asking cos when I visted, I prefered the smaller resort towns to the over crowded Yalta,like,Novyi Svit,Foros and Alushta.

I've been there twice in the last 5 years, so I will be able to make my own comparisons. I hope the corruption among the police is less than what I saw during my previous trips when they were shaking people down for money at the airport for any infraction. I also hope the supply of various Massandra wines is okay. We really enjoyed them.

FatAndy
15-04-2015, 16:06
I also hope the supply of various Massandra wines is okay. We really enjoyed them.
Try to find 5-7 yo Koktebel' cognacs.


I will. I am very curious to see things for myself without ANY news sources' propaganda.
And it is good and correct.

fenrir
15-04-2015, 19:32
Try to find 5-7 yo Koktebel' cognacs.

I think I will. My inlaws are coming too and they also like cognac. A good local cognac to go with good local wines will make the trip quite a pleasant one.

FatAndy
15-04-2015, 19:57
I think I will. My inlaws are coming too and they also like cognac. A good local cognac to go with good local wines will make the trip quite a pleasant one.
Oh, these nasty foreigners... :D

Comrade - DO NOT MIX !!! :bomb:

Otherwise it will be easier to kill you the next morning than to revive to (at least) usable state ;)

fenrir
15-04-2015, 22:05
Oh, these nasty foreigners... :D

Comrade - DO NOT MIX !!! :bomb:

Otherwise it will be easier to kill you the next morning than to revive to (at least) usable state ;)

Mixing? You should have been with us in Prague where we mixed beer, champagne, Jager Bombs, gin and tonic, and whiskey in a 100-hour campaign of liver destruction and very little sleep!

TolkoRaz
15-04-2015, 22:40
Mixing? You should have been with us in Prague where we mixed beer, champagne, Jager Bombs, gin and tonic, and whiskey in a 100-hour campaign of liver destruction and very little sleep!

Where are the photos? :piano:

Uncle Wally
16-04-2015, 11:44
Ruble goes higher. 50 today expect 49

fenrir
16-04-2015, 11:46
Where are the photos? :piano:

No pictures, no evidence! Can't be too careful.

FatAndy
16-04-2015, 12:40
http://www.vz.ru/photoreport/740151/#ad-image-0 - Mosgortrans has started to test electro-buses.

nicklcool
18-04-2015, 05:27
Russian economy will be fine; her base fundamentals are much stronger. She spends only 1% more of her GDP on government spending than USA and less than so many EU countries (http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2008/03/government-spending-as-percentage-of.html), all while having those sweet petro-dollars pouring into the country.

Also, yikes, look how much the proportion of social expenditures vs. GDP has grown for the USA since 1985 (https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SOCX_AGG)? Does this trend show a country that's becoming more capitalist or more socialist? :question:

Additionally, woo-hoo, which country's military expenditures as a percentage of GDP are growing, and which country's are reducing (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS)? (this is President Obama apologizing to the world for the USA's mistakes - he loves is country!) :fireworks:

Next, please review how reliant the USA is on consumerism for economic growth, vs. Russia (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PETC.ZS). This is the point I made in Post 171 on page twelve, that consumerism is not the only sign of economic growth! In the USA, yes, when consumer purchases go down the economy follows, but in Russia, thank to her natural resources, a decline in consumer purchases does not automatically spell economic doom.

So some only look at anecdotal happy Russians in stores & bars as signs of prosperity. Some complain about people in this thread comparing USA to Russia as being off-topic, while so many of their posts measure the Russian economy solely on the value of its currency vs. the dollar - wow! But if you look at the fundamentals of the economy, and do a little analysis beyond anecdotal singular stats of layoffs or price rises or exchange rates, Russia is on pretty solid footing. And I didn't even pull stats on welfare expenditures - but get this! Russia has a welfare program to encourage its legal citizens to give birth (materinskyi kapital), while the USA has welfare programs to encourage people not to work and to encourage people to illegally come to our country!!

Now, which country & economy is headed in the right direction, and which society/economy is headed towards inevitable decline?? :applause:

Fantastika
18-04-2015, 06:11
Russian economy will be fine; her base fundamentals are much stronger. She spends only 1% more of her GDP on government spending than USA and less than so many EU countries (http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2008/03/government-spending-as-percentage-of.html), all while having those sweet petro-dollars pouring into the country.

What's scary to me is the part of the US federal budget for "debt payments". The US is paying about 1% interest on its $18 trillion debt, or $180 billion, this year. What happens if the interest rate goes to 5% or even 10%? The annual debt payment would explode, and truly bankrupt the budget. But since the debt it largely one federal agency owing the money to another federal agency, I guess this does not matter.

fenrir
18-04-2015, 20:21
Back on topic, the FT reports the first quarter hasn't gone so well.

Russia’s economy shrinks 2-4% despite Putin’s positive spin

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f69429a-e515-11e4-a02d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XgKK4Zrf

Suuryaa
18-04-2015, 20:30
This is information about American treasuries. Pay attention that China holds less, and Russia almost twice less.

Source http://2015.livejournal.com/5348043.html

Uncle Wally
18-04-2015, 22:41
This is information about American treasuries. Pay attention that China holds less, and Russia almost twice less.

Source http://2015.livejournal.com/5348043.html



Yes some of us have been paying attention ⚠

And it will go lower and lower.

nicklcool
18-04-2015, 23:18
This is information about American treasuries. Pay attention that China holds less, and Russia almost twice less.

Source http://2015.livejournal.com/5348043.html

Interesting find, but it can be interpreted one of two ways:
1. Russia and China are selling their dollar debt holdings, to spur their economies because they're in deep trouble.
2. Russia and China recognize the growing risk exposure by holding dollars, and are trying to strengthen their portfolios.
If you take the long view of things number two is your interpretation; really if you look at the American economy's fundamentals there is very very little to support that she can pay her long term debts, but I guess we'll have to wait for more and more of these treadury securities to mature, to know if America can make good on these loan payments.

nicklcool
19-04-2015, 00:12
Back on topic, the FT reports the first quarter hasn't gone so well.
Russia’s economy shrinks 2-4% despite Putin’s positive spin
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f69429a-e515-11e4-a02d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XgKK4Zrf

Fenrir please explain how my post was off-topic?
Your post does not explain how the Russian economy's fundamentals are getting worse. This 2-4% slide is likely a micro-blip that does not reflect a long-term trend. VVP even said a few months back that yes this will be a weak year economically, but that's irrespective of the sanctions - it will be due to lower oil prices as global demand weakens.
If you look at the fundamentals, America and the Western European countries are in a much weaker predicament (aging population + fewer legal citizen births = smaller tax base, rising welfare payments, deteriorating culture, etc.). The only thing going for the USA is her past performance, which was quite strong. But if you've been in America lately or have followed the domestic politics, you know she's headed in a bad bad direction. And besides, how does that saying for investors go? "Basing current investment decisions on past performance is a sure way to lose your shirt."

Fantastika
19-04-2015, 06:34
This is information about American treasuries. Pay attention that China holds less, and Russia almost twice less.

Source...

Do I really believe Belgium with $350 billion and Luxembourg (population 530 thousand) with $175 billion?

Or maybe the Fed is "fiscally cleansing" :) the debt through banks in those countries...

Fantastika
19-04-2015, 06:36
This is information about American treasuries. Pay attention that China holds less, and Russia almost twice less.

Source...

"Carib Banking Ctrs" ? $350 Billion? :D "Money laundering" is illegal, unless the Fed does it.

Fantastika
19-04-2015, 06:48
Obviously Russia is selling dollar-denominated T-bills.

They bought 'em, each dollar for 30-35 rubles, now they can sell for 50 rubles? A golden opportunity.

These "sanctions" things have a way of blowing up in the sanctioners face...

fenrir
19-04-2015, 09:15
Fenrir please explain how my post was off-topic?
Your post does not explain how the Russian economy's fundamentals are getting worse. This 2-4% slide is likely a micro-blip that does not reflect a long-term trend. VVP even said a few months back that yes this will be a weak year economically, but that's irrespective of the sanctions - it will be due to lower oil prices as global demand weakens.
If you look at the fundamentals, America and the Western European countries are in a much weaker predicament (aging population + fewer legal citizen births = smaller tax base, rising welfare payments, deteriorating culture, etc.). The only thing going for the USA is her past performance, which was quite strong. But if you've been in America lately or have followed the domestic politics, you know she's headed in a bad bad direction. And besides, how does that saying for investors go? "Basing current investment decisions on past performance is a sure way to lose your shirt."

I didn't target anyone with my comment. Kudrin expects Russia to stay in economic contraction until 2017. That is not a micro-blip. Russia also has an ageing population problem as well as a growing HIV issue at a time that various laws, regulations and the overall economic situation are forcing many foreigners (potential future citizens) to leave. How many children does the average Russia woman give birth too? 1.61 and the average age when giving birth to their first child is 24.6. That is not conducive to population growth. Lastly, Russia's economy is not very diversified like the US' and Germany's. That is probably the most critical economic issue and one that won't be solved quickly.

Judge
19-04-2015, 09:59
How many children does the average Russia woman give birth too? 1.61 and the average age when giving birth to their first child is 24.6.

Old stats, the population of Russia grew by 2 million when Crimea joined.:sunny:

FatAndy
20-04-2015, 14:59
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5534e2069a794703fb3289ae - the head of "Imarat Kavkaz" was "neutralised" in Buinaksk, Dagestan, together with 2 helpers

http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5534e3e19a7947053765612f - RF maidowns have got under investigation

JPS
20-04-2015, 20:19
Freedom of speech under a threat!!! :devilish:

Freedom of speech? Russia? Oxymoron?

FatAndy
20-04-2015, 20:41
Freedom of speech? Russia? Oxymoron?
Poposition intellectuals swear The Darkest One and his rotten regime quite free in MK, TV Rain, Uho Matsy radio, TMT, Novaya gazeta etc. So yes, freedom. ;) And plenty of them are oxydized morons. But they wanted to be. :)

nicklcool
21-04-2015, 00:58
Russia also has an ageing population problem as well How many children does the average Russia woman give birth too? 1.61 and the average age when giving birth to their first child is 24.6. That is not conducive to population growth. Lastly, Russia's economy is not very diversified like the US' and Germany's. That is probably the most critical economic issue and one that won't be solved quickly.

Glad you brought that up! Pull up the birth stats by region on Wikipedia; I didn't look at all the regions but the first half-dozen or so show steady increases over the last few years! That Materinskyi Kapital looks like it's working wonderfully; much better at least than the USA's tax-deduction for dependents!

This stat - the birth rate - seems so much more important to the economy, since it's the way our countries find new little taxpayers. Russia has all these natural resources, now growing population of children, and fewer structural deficits. Look at the West - especially the USA: lots and lots of structural deficits, esp. the social pension plans, and what's she doing to address it??

1. Increasing levels of illegal immigration of illiterate day-laborers who do not assimilate (I'm sorry that sounds "bigoted" Agent Smith, but if we're honest about the elephant in the room, that's what we must call many of our border-hoppers from the South)
2. while punishing business-creators and working Americans with growing taxes and regulations.
3. propagating populist ideas that whites are racist and the "1%" are the reason you cannot get ahead economically
etc. etc.

I don't know about you, but that sounds like a recipe for failure! :11513:

Uncle Wally
21-04-2015, 01:14
Old stats, the population of Russia grew by 2 million when Crimea joined.:sunny:



And not only. Russia is the second most popular place to immigrate.

drbobguy
22-04-2015, 10:45
And not only. Russia is the second most popular place to immigrate.

Who's first?

Uncle Wally
22-04-2015, 11:00
Who's first?



Like you didn't know drbobguy.


America

fenrir
22-04-2015, 12:10
Glad you brought that up! Pull up the birth stats by region on Wikipedia; I didn't look at all the regions but the first half-dozen or so show steady increases over the last few years! That Materinskyi Kapital looks like it's working wonderfully; much better at least than the USA's tax-deduction for dependents!

This stat - the birth rate - seems so much more important to the economy, since it's the way our countries find new little taxpayers. Russia has all these natural resources, now growing population of children, and fewer structural deficits. Look at the West - especially the USA: lots and lots of structural deficits, esp. the social pension plans, and what's she doing to address it??

1. Increasing levels of illegal immigration of illiterate day-laborers who do not assimilate (I'm sorry that sounds "bigoted" Agent Smith, but if we're honest about the elephant in the room, that's what we must call many of our border-hoppers from the South)
2. while punishing business-creators and working Americans with growing taxes and regulations.
3. propagating populist ideas that whites are racist and the "1%" are the reason you cannot get ahead economically
etc. etc.

I don't know about you, but that sounds like a recipe for failure! :11513:

Since this thread is about the economic situation in Russia, I am going to stick to that theme.

The replacement birthrate for Western countries is 2.1 and Russia is far below that.

Resources are only as good as you can make use of them. Russia could do much better in this regard.

Below is a problem that needs immediate attention before it grows into a catastrophe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/world/europe/russian-workers-take-aim-at-putin-as-economy-exacts-its-toll.html?_r=0

Fantastika
22-04-2015, 14:47
Since this thread is about the economic situation in Russia, I am going to stick to that theme.

The replacement birthrate for Western countries is 2.1 and Russia is far below that.

:rolleyes: What Western country has a birthrate of 2.1?


Below is a problem that needs immediate attention before it grows into a catastrophe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/world/europe/russian-workers-take-aim-at-putin-as-economy-exacts-its-toll.html?_r=0


Workers going on strike, or demanding "unpaid" wages? These are signs of a vibrant economy, free speech and healthy social dialogue.

Leave it to the New York Slimes to blame all of this on Vladimir Putin, just like Uncle Wally blames everything on George Bush. Workers not being paid is the fault of a corrupt or greedy employer, not VVP.

fenrir
22-04-2015, 15:43
:rolleyes: What Western country has a birthrate of 2.1?




Workers going on strike, or demanding "unpaid" wages? These are signs of a vibrant economy, free speech and healthy social dialogue.

Leave it to the New York Slimes to blame all of this on Vladimir Putin, just like Uncle Wally blames everything on George Bush. Workers not being paid is the fault of a corrupt or greedy employer, not VVP.

Where did I say any country had this birthrate? It is a target rate to maintain a stable population. Btw, France has 2.08. Not bad.

Fantastika
22-04-2015, 20:24
Where did I say any country had this birthrate? It is a target rate to maintain a stable population. Btw, France has 2.08. Not bad.

France is the only European country with anything close to a replacement birth-rate. Whatever policies it has implemented to boost the birthrate should be emulated by other Western countries. Otherwise the EU is looking at an economic and budget calamity, as increasing numbers of retirees and growing pension costs overwhelm the ability of governments to borrow for, and workers to fund with taxes, retirement programs. And relying on immigration to fill the gap will only result in the loss of cultural identity.

penka
22-04-2015, 21:22
Where did I say any country had this birthrate? It is a target rate to maintain a stable population. Btw, France has 2.08. Not bad.

Have you been to Cote d'Azur lately? Looked around for the folks that are not waiters or the hotel ushers? French birth rate my **** pardon my French:D

fenrir
22-04-2015, 22:04
France is the only European country with anything close to a replacement birth-rate. Whatever policies it has implemented to boost the birthrate should be emulated by other Western countries. Otherwise the EU is looking at an economic and budget calamity, as increasing numbers of retirees and growing pension costs overwhelm the ability of governments to borrow for, and workers to fund with taxes, retirement programs. And relying on immigration to fill the gap will only result in the loss of cultural identity.

A recent article mentioned the French tie having children into pension increases and receiving it earlier without giving details of the scheme.

Fantastika
22-04-2015, 22:43
A recent article mentioned the French tie having children into pension increases and receiving it earlier without giving details of the scheme.

I read an article about the programs France was using to boost the birth rate, but I can't find it now.

Uncle Wally
22-04-2015, 23:23
:rolleyes: What Western country has a birthrate of 2.1?




Workers going on strike, or demanding "unpaid" wages? These are signs of a vibrant economy, free speech and healthy social dialogue.

Leave it to the New York Slimes to blame all of this on Vladimir Putin, just like Uncle Wally blames everything on George Bush. Workers not being paid is the fault of a corrupt or greedy employer, not VVP.



I don't blame everything on Bush.


I blame it on you.

fenrir
23-04-2015, 09:34
I wonder how the farmers will do this year. They may need government help in the end.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/putin-s-feed-russia-first-push-has-global-grain-markets-on-edge

FatAndy
23-04-2015, 10:27
I wonder how the farmers will do this year. They may need government help in the end.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/putin-s-feed-russia-first-push-has-global-grain-markets-on-edge
The economy is torn into pieces, listen to your BB. ;)

nicklcool
23-04-2015, 17:58
Since this thread is about the economic situation in Russia, I am going to stick to that theme.
The replacement birthrate for Western countries is 2.1 and Russia is far below that.


Fenrir, my post has EVERYTHING to do with the economic situation in Russia; see below. Yes, :applause: Russia is far below 2.1, but look at the chart: over the past half-decade the rate has grown, this Materinskyi Kapital program is doing wonders. Remember, the trend is your friend :11033:


Otherwise the EU is looking at an economic and budget calamity, as increasing numbers of retirees and growing pension costs overwhelm the ability of governments to borrow for, and workers to fund with taxes, retirement programs. And relying on immigration to fill the gap will only result in the loss of cultural identity.

Yes, this!! This is the elusive connection Fenrir missed. +100 Fantastika, and if you throw in the other welfare programs, these are the conduits to EU&'s and America's sad, slow demise.

nicklcool
23-04-2015, 18:03
Russian economy will be fine; her base fundamentals are much stronger. She spends only 1% more of her GDP on government spending than USA and less than so many EU countries (http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2008/03/government-spending-as-percentage-of.html), all while having those sweet petro-dollars pouring into the country.
...


Still no rebuttals. Are the Russia-bashers getting lazy, or do they in their silence acknowledge how these fundamentals (like military sending, proportion of the economy dependent on consumer purchases, and welfare spending in proportion to GDP) all point to the strength of Russia's future??
:question:

nicklcool
23-04-2015, 18:13
One more thing, sometimes you have to do a little more analysis than just "ruble losing value vs. dollar = Russian economy bad." What are the numbers telling you? What is the trend? What do the current social and fiscal policies and the demographics foreshadow for the future?

For example, I had a great Eureaka moment yesterday -- remember how in this thread (and in general everyone) people point out how low the average salaries are for Russians?? Well, you can't just compare the apples (US average salaries) to oranges (Russian average salaries).

...In the US, someone says "I make $50K per year" but this is:
1. Before state, local & federal income taxes
2. Before MEDICAID (health care program for the poor) deductions
3. Before Social Security deductions
4. Before Health Insurance Premiums deductions

...In Russia, someone says "I make 100K rubles per month" and this is:
1. After state/local/federal taxes
2. There are no medicaid/Social Security deductions
3. Health care is socialized so no insurance premiums


So, I wonder how far off the numbers really are, for average salary in USA vs. Russia. And before someone says "100K is unreasonable! You only find it in Moscow," I've gotta say, if only like 53% of Americans earn enough to owe federal income taxes, what the h*ll is considered a reasonable income in today's America! :sick:

Fantastika
23-04-2015, 18:15
Yes, this!! This is the elusive connection Fenrir missed. +100 Fantastika, and if you throw in the other welfare programs, these are the conduits to EU&'s and America's sad, slow demise.

Fenrir doesn't miss anything, he just chooses what to focus on... :)

Fantastika
23-04-2015, 18:24
The economy is torn into pieces, listen to your BB. ;)

So Bloatberg and Western media push for sanctions on Russia, then when prices on bread go up because of their sanctions, they blame Russia. :Loco:

Think I'll go bark at the moon.

BTW, did anyone see any Lyrid meteors last night? It was supposed to be a big meteor shower, but I didn't see a one. I'll try again tonight.

AstarD
23-04-2015, 18:50
So Bloatberg and Western media push for sanctions on Russia, then when prices on bread go up because of their sanctions, they blame Russia. :loco:Why would the price of bread increase in Russia because of sanctions? Russia is one of the world's largest grain exporters. No sanctions stop the exports. Russia also grows enough grain to supply itself. No sanctions stop Russia from growing grain. Why would prices increase because of sanctions?

Fantastika
23-04-2015, 19:14
Why would the price of bread increase in Russia because of sanctions? Russia is one of the world's largest grain exporters. No sanctions stop the exports. Russia also grows enough grain to supply itself. No sanctions stop Russia from growing grain. Why would prices increase because of sanctions?

I'm also confused.

FatAndy
24-04-2015, 15:11
Why would the price of bread increase in Russia because of sanctions? Russia is one of the world's largest grain exporters. No sanctions stop the exports. Russia also grows enough grain to supply itself. No sanctions stop Russia from growing grain. Why would prices increase because of sanctions?
Indeed.
Most of wheat we produce and export is soft grain one (used to feed cattle). Hard grain wheat requires warmer climatic conditions, while we have 75% of territory in permafrost soils. Only Kuban' and Stavropol'e have needed conditions.

TolkoRaz
24-04-2015, 18:03
General Motors sales are down in the first quarter of 2015 because of Sanctions against the RF. The US of A company is now closing it's factory in the RF hurting both the Evil Empire and the RF!

Uncle Wally
24-04-2015, 23:09
General Motors sales are down in the first quarter of 2015 because of Sanctions against the RF. The US of A company is now closing it's factory in the RF hurting both the Evil Empire and the RF!



Why is Ford staying?

Judge
30-04-2015, 14:53
Russian Central Bank cuts key rate to 12.5%, cites risks of economic cooling.

time to try and get people borrowing again....nice timing, just before the holidays.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-30/russia-central-bank-cuts-key-rate-150-bps-1250-citing-risk-considerable-economy-cool

Judge
30-04-2015, 15:38
And more good news just before the holidays, many will be spending their holidays in Crimea,


Visa and MasterCard payment cards issued by Russian banks are working again in Crimea after transactions have been transferred to the new Russian National Payment Card System.

http://rt.com/business/254449-crimea-mastercard-visa-npcs/

FatAndy
07-05-2015, 16:18
http://ria.ru/economy/20150507/1063134279.html - Turkish- (former South-) Stream to start pumping gas in Dec 2016.

Where is Carbo, who knows? I remember, he was desperately sceptical about NorthStream several years ago... :)

Judge
07-05-2015, 16:30
http://ria.ru/economy/20150507/1063134279.html - Turkish- (former South-) Stream to start pumping gas in Dec 2016.


But where will it go from Turkey ,is the EU ready for it?

FatAndy
07-05-2015, 16:39
But where will it go from Turkey ,is the EU ready for it?
Well, they were unhappy with our proposal to build our "illegal" pipe in Bulgaria... so EU will build their own pipe/pumping system... erhm... with the full accordance with their 3rd Energy Law package.:11088:

Judge
07-05-2015, 17:04
Well, they were unhappy with our proposal to build our "illegal" pipe in Bulgaria... so EU will build their own pipe/pumping system... erhm... with the full accordance with their 3rd Energy Law package.:11088:

And they will foot the bill too, no freebie this time. ... there will be a timer ticking down, for when the gas transit through Ukraine is cut off...

FatAndy
07-05-2015, 18:24
Damned rotten regime continues its dirty hybrid war:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/forget-tanks-it-s-russia-s-ruble-that-s-conquering-east-ukraine

fenrir
07-05-2015, 19:53
And they will foot the bill too, no freebie this time. ... there will be a timer ticking down, for when the gas transit through Ukraine is cut off...

Gazprom should be more worried about the anti-trust case opened against it.

AstarD
07-05-2015, 19:54
Gazprom should be more worried about the anti-trust case opened against it.And what would a conviction or judgement in the plaintiffs' favor do? Russia has never complied with foreign court judgments.

fenrir
07-05-2015, 21:46
And what would a conviction or judgement in the plaintiffs' favor do? Russia has never complied with foreign court judgments.

Gazprom has lots of assets in the EU (physical property) that can be seized to settle claims.

Judge
07-05-2015, 22:09
Gazprom should be more worried about the anti-trust case opened against it.

It's an investigation that's been going on for 3 years, now is a good time for the EU to charge Russia, fits in with the other BS they throw Russia's way . ......the 2 sides will work something out, won't be a problem.

fenrir
07-05-2015, 22:14
It's an investigation that's been going on for 3 years, now is a good time for the EU to charge Russia, fits in with the other BS they throw Russia's way . ......the 2 sides will work something out, won't be a problem.

And that something will cost Russia big time. Europe is switching to other suppliers and Russian will never find other customers who pay as much. Get ready for lower sales and lower profits.

Judge
07-05-2015, 22:30
And that something will cost Russia big time. Europe is switching to other suppliers and Russian will never find other customers who pay as much. Get ready for lower sales and lower profits.

Big time in what way, settle on a payment, out of court settlement, let Europe get gas from elsewhere at a higher price, there's not enough suppliers who can supply all of Europe's gas needs, Europe like it or not are stuck with Russian gas for the foreseeable future.
Gazprom is already looking east. ..

fenrir
07-05-2015, 22:37
Big time in what way, settle on a payment, out of court settlement, let Europe get gas from elsewhere at a higher price, there's not enough suppliers who can supply all of Europe's gas needs, Europe like it or not are stuck with Russian gas for the foreseeable future.
Gazprom is already looking east. ..

The precentage of gas coming from Russia will keep declining and yes, Russia is looking east to partners who will pay LESS per cubic meter.

Judge
07-05-2015, 22:56
The precentage of gas coming from Russia will keep declining and yes, Russia is looking east to partners who will pay LESS per cubic meter.

It's not only Russia's loss but also mainland Europe's loss too. .this is what they want, let Europe diversify from Russian gas.,Russia is also doing the same.
It's going to be intersting in a year or so when Russia stops pumping Europe's gas through Ukraine, European countries better have other suppliers in place.

FatAndy
08-05-2015, 11:00
It's not only Russia's loss but also mainland Europe's loss too.
Probably that's why fenrir is so happy ;)


European countries better have other suppliers in place.
And pay more. Those nasty Europeans are very, very rich.:thumbsup:

FatAndy
08-05-2015, 11:41
The monument for Polite People is established in Belogorsk, Amur region, Far East of RF:
http://www.amur.info/news/2015/05/06/93586

Totalitarian kindergarten tutors force poor kids to invent the name for the kitten in the hands of soldier http://www.amur.info/news/2015/05/08/93758


Personal Victory Parade for Obamka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqYTaKfMlbU

Judge
08-05-2015, 11:50
Probably that's why fenrir is so happy ;)


And pay more. Those nasty Europeans are very, very rich.:thumbsup:

Yes, still Russians think westerners are rich, it's why we get charged extra to enter museums, is this still the case,pay extra?
so, it's another atrocity of your bloody regime:)

FatAndy
08-05-2015, 12:04
Yes, still Russians think westerners are rich, it's why we get charged extra to enter museums, is this still the case,pay extra?
so, it's another atrocity of your bloody regime:)
Well, they explain it like lower price or free entrance for RF citizens are sponsored by the state via the ministry of culture, while foreigners pay the full sum. :D

Not only westerners, BTW, they apply the atrocity to Chinese comrades as well, just saw it before yesterday in Novodevichy monastery.

TolkoRaz
17-05-2015, 20:54
I think we can expect an uptick in military action in the next few weeks - NovoRossiya is soon to get bigger! :10293:

FatAndy
17-05-2015, 21:40
I think we can expect an uptick in military action in the next few weeks - NovoRossiya is soon to get bigger! :10293:
Oh, these nasty rooskies... ;)

Uncle Wally
18-05-2015, 00:20
I think we can expect an uptick in military action in the next few weeks - NovoRossiya is soon to get bigger! :10293:



I hope they are more aggressive than when they play hockey!

TolkoRaz
18-05-2015, 08:54
VVP scored the winning goal the other day! ;)

FatAndy
18-05-2015, 13:56
VVP scored the winning goal the other day! ;)
Hope it will be a bit more winning ;)

FatAndy
26-05-2015, 19:31
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/556495459a79479013dd66f0 - Rosselhoznadzor (Russian Agro Supervisor) has banned eggs and live hen/chicken import from US (not because of political reasons :D - just birds flu outbreaks in 17 states).

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:14
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/risque-miss-russia-photo-shoot-prompts-prosecutorial-probe/522398.html

Someone should go to jail for this...!

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:22
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/worst-not-over-for-russia-as-economy-shrinks-43-in-april/522476.html

Just more lies..
I agree with Uncle Willy. Things just keep getting better!:ok:

penka
27-05-2015, 22:24
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/worst-not-over-for-russia-as-economy-shrinks-43-in-april/522476.html

Just more lies..
I agree with Uncle Willy. Things just keep getting better!:ok:

Get a job! Or is that your job?
The readers are bored, man. Spice it up, at least;)

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:31
Get a job! Or is that your job?
The readers are bored, man. Spice it up, at least;)

Hey Penka,..:bird:..if you don't like it,..leave!!
Ooi..my bad. You already did!!

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:35
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/in-putins-russia-might-is-right-op-ed/522455.html

The guy that wrote this should be prosecuted! He is obviously trying to breed extremist tendencies! If he doesn't like here, he should move to Sweden like Penka!

FatAndy
27-05-2015, 22:38
The guy that wrote this should be prosecuted!
Executed, you wanted to say? :D

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:39
Executed, you wanted to say? :D

If the people demand it, sure!:ak:

FatAndy
27-05-2015, 22:41
If the people demand it, sure!:ak:
Then we'll do it, a bit later - the stonecrusher is busy now...

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:43
Then we'll do it, a bit later - the stonecrusher is busy now...

Just make sure to televise it on federal television. Must send a message to the masses!!

FatAndy
27-05-2015, 22:47
Just make sure to televise it on federal television. Must send a message to the masses!!
Don't worry, be happy - those who should see it, will see it. :)

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:51
Don't worry, be happy - those who should see it, will see it. :)

Thank you FatAndy. Your ever present dilagents in keeping us safe from ourselves is admirable. I hope you get a medal one day for service to the Mother Land.. Or at least a letter of commendation!

FatAndy
27-05-2015, 22:55
Thank you FatAndy. Your ever present dilagents in keeping us safe from ourselves is admirable. I hope you get a medal one day for service to the Mother Land.. Or at least a letter of commendation!
I've got both. Don't envy, comrade, it's a hard job - tortures, interrogations, executions... but needed for socety! :verycool:

Carl
27-05-2015, 22:58
I've got both. Don't envy, comrade, it's a hard job - tortures, interrogations, executions... but needed for socety! :verycool:

Your unfaltering service, to whomever you serve, is commendable. I salute you sir..

Nobbynumbnuts
28-05-2015, 00:03
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/worst-not-over-for-russia-as-economy-shrinks-43-in-april/522476.html

Just more lies..
I agree with Uncle Willy. Things just keep getting better!:ok:

"Worst Not Over for Russia as Economy Shrinks 4.3% in April"

This is no surprise, it was predicted at the end of last year.

Judge
29-05-2015, 17:23
Soon we might have to delete a few smilies.

http://kommersant.ru/doc/2735688

FatAndy
29-05-2015, 17:50
Soon we might have to delete a few smilies.
http://kommersant.ru/doc/2735688
There are (and were, and will be) many idiotic projects in Duma, most of them not even unaccepted, but declined yet in 1st reading.

Uncle Wally
29-05-2015, 23:06
Soon we might have to delete a few smilies.

http://kommersant.ru/doc/2735688


I thought already Carl does that.

nicklcool
03-06-2015, 14:00
Please forgive me in advance but my primitive humiliating style of utterances to make rhetorical points :7534: only allows my to discuss this topic in list format:

1. Anyone notice that the employee from that famous polling company validated my point from a few weeks ago, when he questioned the MSM's widespread promotion of the inauthentic U3 unemployment number in the US, vs. the more realistic U6 indicator?? His editorial was in USA Today, I believe.
2. Also interesting that now more & more MSM outlets in the US are reporting on the over-hyped "recovery" stats in the US -- now in turns out Q1 GDP was negative not positive; quite convenient that these GDP indicators are often over-estimated, not under-, and everyone buys the lame "oh the harsh winter reduced economic output" excuse!
2a. Isn't this mighty similar to USSR's inauthentic economic indicators before her collapse? I sure hope the USA isn't creeping towards the USSR's moniker among her citizens that "we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us"!
3. I've noticed that the MSM in both the USA and Russia write lots of articles about the other country's woes. Maybe the Elite in both countries would rather we plebiscites in each country focus on the other's problems, instead of our own?
3a. Interesting, how much does this focus on external problems occur in the EU? Other countries? Is it equally widespread?
4. IMHO, Russia's economy is on better footing since she has so many lyogkiye izkopaemye (natural resources). Maybe this isn't the best foundation for an economy but isn't it interesting that the MSM doesn't claim that Saudia Arabia's economy (for example) is doomed since she relies too much on her natural resources??
5. IMHO, USA is in trouble because her strongest foundation was always easy access to credit, consumer spending, and an entrepreneurial free market.
5a. The lending standards for the first were relaxed way too much, causing the 07-08 crisis, and now the standards are being loosened again - how will these help turn around her economy?
5b. Whenever this goes up lately, it's due to 5a, not some other fundamental like rising labor participation rate, rising wages, or rising falling unemployment. How will this turn out well for the USA, long term?
5c. Ever-increasing regulation and blame-the-1% populism is hurting our entrepreneurial free market - how will this be good for the USA economy?

Well that's this list for now. Easier to follow I hope and I take some solace in the fact that a great mind like Thomas Sowell also uses lists to argue his points! :wavey:

Nobbynumbnuts
05-06-2015, 11:26
Two reports from Sberbank that are well worth taking the time to read..


MULTI-ASSET SPUTNIK - RUBLE REBOUND REACHES INFLEXION POINT
Alexander Kudrin, Kingsmill Bond, Alexander Golinsky, Andrey Kuznetsov, Tom Levinson, Vladimir Pantyushin, Iskander Abdullaev
Sberbank CIB Investment Research
http://research.sberbank-cib.com
The last year has seen Russian asset prices collapse, stabilize and more recently rebound. In our view, the ruble reached a high point last month of near USD/RUB 50 and several factors now point to it bouncing back to 60 by year end, meaning that the currency's rollercoaster ride is not over. Crucial among these factors is that CBR policy is no longer supportive of the currency.
> Global FX/rates. The recently stalled rally in the dollar will resume soon. Market expectations for Fed tightening have become too dovish, while the ECB has indicated discomfort over euro appreciation. A September Fed hike is our base case, and we expect EUR/USD to reach 1.00 by year end.
> Global bonds. UST yields will rise further, the UST 10 hitting 2.5% by year end. EM dollar-denominated debt is unlikely to enjoy resilience to the same extent as it did recently during the core rate rout. Meanwhile, we see Bund yields climbing marginally higher as the ECB QE launch is now behind us.
> Global equities. We believe that the counter-trend reversal is running out of stream and that the dollar will once more appreciate. Consequently, we favor dollar-based assets and are skeptical about commodities and emerging markets.
> Oil. The recent rally is running out of steam after WTI reached $60/bbl, a level that by itself may stimulate shale producers to reopen the taps. The upcoming OPEC meeting on June 5 is likely to confirm Saudi Arabia's stance of favoring market share over price. We believe that the path of least resistance for oil is down rather then up and expect Brent to trade in a $55-65/bbl range.
> Russian equities. We expect the market to tread water over the summer and anticipate outperformance from exporters in a weak ruble environment.
> Russian Eurobonds. The recession and expected ruble correction favor exporters. However, the market rally has left little unrealized potential in the asset class. The market will likely perform in line with global EM trends.
> Russian FX/rates. The ruble's best days of 2015 have passed, and we target USD/RUB 60 by year end. The CBR has indicated discomfort over recent ruble strength and its policy in 2H15 should help reverse this (i.e. rate cuts, FX repo suspensions and direct FX intervention), as should a more challenging external environment.
> Ruble bonds. CBR rate cuts will likely continue driving local rates down. However, the weaker ruble will limit potential upside in sovereign ruble bonds. Corporate paper may still attract investor attention due to additional yield pickup.


CHIEF ECONOMIST'S VIEW - SHIFT TO EAST LIKELY TO BRING WEAKER RUBLE
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Sberbank CIB Investment Research
http://research.sberbank-cib.com
This note adds a bit more color to Russia's recent economic and political developments and is supplementary to our recent Russia Economic Monthly, "Dangerous Ruble Appreciation." In the political section of the monthly, we reiterated our view that we expect no improvement in relations between Russia and the West any time soon. Sanctions will therefore remain in place for a long time and fresh sanctions can be expected irrespective of how the situation develops in Ukraine's Donbas Region, which is presumably anticipated by Russia's policymakers. We have already remarked that every time Western leaders are due to make an important decision on Russian or Ukrainian-related matters, such as whether to extend sanctions, the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine has escalated and casualties on the ground have increased (still, we do not have not enough data to statistically prove or reject with any confidence whether there is causality in such events, i.e. escalation and forthcoming meetings of the Western leaders). As a result, the pressure on Russia is ratcheted up. In light of this, the regular rollover of sanctions appears unreasonable and would be a waste of time. Indeed, given that Russia does not expect sanctions to be lifted any time soon, why not ensure they are extended indefinitely and then see whether the conflict in Donbas escalates whenever Western policymakers are due to meet to discuss Russia?
German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Moscow on May 10 and described Russia's incorporation of Crimea as "a criminal and illegitimate act," underscoring the fact that there is no chance of any improvement in diplomatic relations any time soon. It seems that Russia will likely downgrade its relations with Europe as it has done to those with the US ("not a priority," in the words of the Russian Foreign Ministry).
Moscow's ongoing drift away from the West has already had implications for the Russian economy, with a collapse in mutual foreign trade (though this was also a product of the oil price correction and weakening ruble). The longer diplomatic relations remain strained, the fewer the incentives that businesses will have to wait long enough for ties to improve. Hence, Russia's economic detachment from the West is set to widen. In the years to come, this will increasingly affect both manufacturing imports to Russia and Russian exports to Europe, including gas, which will please some Western politicians. Gas exports generate about 11% of Russia's total export revenues and do not look critical at the macroeconomic level.
Europe as a whole remains and will remain Russia's major trade partner, not least due to its geographical proximity. However, China has already become Russia's No 1 trade partner in terms of individual countries (accounting for 12% of Russia's foreign trade turnover). Germany, the former leader, is third (10%), just behind the Netherlands. Foreign trade flows evolve over time, and the role of countries such as South Korea, Turkey, and Japan has risen in importance for Russia's trade balance. Given the geopolitical landscape, we see the EU's share in Russia's foreign trade gradually but steadily declining for the foreseeable future.
Over the past 10-12 years, Russia's economic growth has been fueled largely by expanding domestic demand that was initially the result of the rising oil price and later was also driven by foreign borrowing, which translated into increased consumer lending domestically. Russia's consumer-driven growth fueled manufacturing imports from the EU, but this growth model came to an end a couple of years ago. Russian growth slowed, imports started to fall, and the subsequent oil price correction and ruble slide half a year ago marked the end of these arrangements. In 1Q15, imports to Russia collapsed by more than a third.
Against this backdrop, there have been some remarkable developments. Two years ago, Russia's GDP per capita was double that of China. The Russian economy barely grew in 2013-14 and is projected to contract this year while China's continues to grow, so Russia's GDP per capita is likely to fall into line with Chinese GDP per capita (at $8,000-9,000). Clearly the exchange rate matters as well, and under certain circumstances Russia's GDP per capita could even fall below China's, meaning that at least some Russian products could become competitive on the Chinese markets (and indeed in other relatively low-income countries). Russia could start gradually drifting away from a growth model reliant on borrowing and inflating domestic consumer demand in favor of export-driven growth. Whether this actually happens will depend largely on the exchange rate and the CBR's policy.
The ruble fluctuated in a wide range in 5m15. In January, USD/RUB was approaching 70, but by late April it had moved back below 49. Judging by their comments, Russian policymakers regarded 70 as too weak and saw fair value at around the 50 level. The problem with this thinking is that when the ruble approached 50, manufacturing as a whole contracted quite strongly while output in certain export-oriented manufacturing sectors dropped sharply. The 50 level was clearly not equilibrium, as the exchange rate was being artificially boosted by the CBR, as the regulator was providing a huge volume of FX refinancing to banks. We have discussed these issues and related risks elsewhere. That said, the ruble has appeared to be too strong recently and the economic contraction deepened in April.We consider the exchange rate to be in equilibrium when the economy is posting statistically visible growth and the CBR is not intervening in the currency as it has done in the past (it was providing too much ruble liquidity in 2014, and the bulk of this was being provided against non-market collateral, leading to the currency to crash in December; in recent months it has been unnecessarily providing FX liquidity and has caused excessive appreciation). It is almost impossible to accurately estimate the equilibrium exchange rate at present given that outstanding refinancing volumes against non-market collateral are still significant (albeit declining) in the ruble segment and refinancing in FX is also in play.
A more appropriate level for the ruble could emerge once the CBR adopts a more neutral approach to the FX market. We think the ruble should be much weaker than it is now (even 55 looks too strong, especially given that inflation remains high, which appreciates the ruble in real terms). As we have already said, we think Russia's growth model will organically shift toward closer ties with countries outside the Western sphere and involve a very gradual increase of manufacturing exports (such as intermediate products, cheap cars and some machinery) to relatively low-income countries, such as China, neighboring countries in Asia, Latin America, possibly Iran, and even a few East European countries. For Russian products to be competitive on these markets, the ruble will need to be much weaker than it is now. A relatively weak ruble for a time could overshadow the problems associated with the country's poor institutional framework and inconsistent economic policy. We refrain from giving exact numbers, as the ruble is still heavily influenced by the regulators, but we suggest that in the years to come, Russian GDP per capita will be around the Chinese level and later dip below, especially if Russia, instead of increasing manufacturing exports, relies on fuel and energy exports. Russia's export relationship with Europe is similar in that Europe is largely supplied by Russian energy and enjoys much higher GDP per capita. In this regard, China may substitute Europe going forward if it keeps buying Russian energy in growing amounts, while its GDP per capita will massively outpace Russia's. Eventually, China may also substitute the West as a lender to Russia.
When Russian GDP approached $2.1 trln in 2013 and was inflated by borrowing, economic growth started to evaporate, as the ruble looked too strong. GDP of around $1.3-1.4 trln looks more like a fair value for Russia - at least from this level it would have the chance to start growing again.
The ruble was stronger when Russia's relations with the West were cozier, and the ruble should be much weaker than now if Russia is to be more engaged in trade with the rest of the world and wants to diversify its exports in order not to repeat the same cycle of growing addiction to energy exports and foreign borrowing (this time from Asia).

Nobbynumbnuts
05-06-2015, 11:46
...in a nut shell, Sberbank think the the ruble will head lower. This could be a positive IF Russian policy changes to one of stimulating manufacturing to take advantage of a weaker ruble. Ruble to depreciate to 60=1$ by year end. Oil to trade at 55-65bbl.
Russian GDP to slip below that of China and China becoming Russia's largest trading partner and main lender...

fenrir
08-06-2015, 16:32
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ads-for-russian-opposition-leader-navalny-removed-in-kostroma/523225.html

Political censorship is alive and well in Russia.

fenrir
08-06-2015, 16:35
Hey, Wally. What happened to the ruble? You used to post nearly every movement as it improved but then you suddenly went quiet for a while. Might it have something to do with this?

1 RUB equals 1 EUR = 62.8590 RUB

Uncle Wally
08-06-2015, 16:58
Hey, Wally. What happened to the ruble? You used to post nearly every movement as it improved but then you suddenly went quiet for a while. Might it have something to do with this?

1 RUB equals 1 EUR = 62.8590 RUB



Great the ruble has gone up! It was at 63 fool.

Judge
08-06-2015, 16:59
The usual, it was tax month, and there was some trouble in Ukraine recently. ..
The CBR didn't want the ruble to strengthen too much, they seem OK with where it is now...
Also the central bank is topping up its international reserves,wants it back up to $500 bn in 3 to 5 years. ...

fenrir
08-06-2015, 17:52
The usual, it was tax month, and there was some trouble in Ukraine recently. ..
The CBR didn't want the ruble to strengthen too much, they seem OK with where it is now...
Also the central bank is topping up its international reserves,wants it back up to $500 bn in 3 to 5 years. ...

You and I know why, but I wanted to hear Wally's unique take on the situation. You ruined my fun!

fenrir
08-06-2015, 17:53
Great the ruble has gone up! It was at 63 fool.

And it was in the lower 50s when you claimed the crisis was over and everything was going back to normal. Remember any of that?

FatAndy
08-06-2015, 19:38
Political censorship is alive and well in Russia.
And this is good and correct. Envy in silence, comrade. ;)

TolkoRaz
08-06-2015, 20:15
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ads-for-russian-opposition-leader-navalny-removed-in-kostroma/523225.html

Political censorship is alive and well in Russia.

Good to see that at least something is alive & well in the Rodina! :D

Uncle Wally
08-06-2015, 23:54
And it was in the lower 50s when you claimed the crisis was over and everything was going back to normal. Remember any of that?


Yes I do and I still say it's over and things aren't going to get much worse. You do understand that America is directing Ukraine to break the Minsk agreement so they can go ahead with their evil plans right? No I guess you wouldn't would you. Everyone else can plainly see.

fenrir
09-06-2015, 09:06
Yes I do and I still say it's over and things aren't going to get much worse. You do understand that America is directing Ukraine to break the Minsk agreement so they can go ahead with their evil plans right? No I guess you wouldn't would you. Everyone else can plainly see.

You said things were going back to normal, not that they aren't going to get much worse. There were articles recently that already 20% of Russians can afford to only put food on the table. That's your idea of the crisis being over? Some humanitarian you are.

Regarding America and Ukraine, prove it. It is Russia who is stirring the pot and my proof of that is the numerous OSCE reports (and they are fair: they also state the things the Ukrainians are doing wrong too). What's your proof?

Nobbynumbnuts
09-06-2015, 09:23
The usual, it was tax month, and there was some trouble in Ukraine recently. ..
The CBR didn't want the ruble to strengthen too much, they seem OK with where it is now...
Also the central bank is topping up its international reserves,wants it back up to $500 bn in 3 to 5 years. ...

Read the report above from Russia's Sberbank, that i posted. Tells an interesting story..

Judge
09-06-2015, 09:52
Read the report above from Russia's Sberbank, that i posted. Tells an interesting story..

Bloody long, init, , read your in a nut shell.
Yes, Russia is mainly an exporting country,better for them,weaker rubke...There was talk about Obama saying at the G7,the strong dollar is hurting us exports..

Nobbynumbnuts
09-06-2015, 10:43
Bloody long, init, , read your in a nut shell.
Yes, Russia is mainly an exporting country,better for them,weaker rubke...There was talk about Obama saying at the G7,the strong dollar is hurting us exports..

Yeah it's long. I don't usually post long ones like that. Can't be bothered to read them either but that is worth taking 5 minutes to go through. From Sberbank so has a Russian perspective..

nicklcool
10-06-2015, 00:54
Why is everyone so focused on the ruble-dollar exchange rate? I'm not an Economics major but even my university micro and macroeconomics classes helped me understand the other economic indicators. If you look only at the exchange rate you'll miss the bigger economic picture :watching: ...Russia's economy is doing just fine on the other fronts, carry on :applause:

fenrir
11-06-2015, 21:48
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/domino-effect-novgorod-becomes-first-russian-region-to-default--report/523411.html

This can be a ticking economic time bomb.

Uncle Wally
11-06-2015, 22:09
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/domino-effect-novgorod-becomes-first-russian-region-to-default--report/523411.html

This can be a ticking economic time bomb.



Oh but Detroit and many other US cities aren't?

nicklcool
11-06-2015, 22:38
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/domino-effect-novgorod-becomes-first-russian-region-to-default--report/523411.html

This can be a ticking economic time bomb.

The US National debt of $18.5 trillion (http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/) is 105% of
US GDP of $17.710 trillion as of Q1 2015 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States)

The $37 billion of debt mentioned in the article is 3% of Russian GDP of $1.175 trillion (April 2015) (nominal) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#2009_.E2.80.93_present)

There is a ticking time bomb but it's in the other socialist republic. :(

Nobbynumbnuts
12-06-2015, 00:04
The US National debt of $18.5 trillion (http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/) is 105% of
US GDP of $17.710 trillion as of Q1 2015 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States)

The $37 billion of debt mentioned in the article is 3% of Russian GDP of $1.175 trillion (April 2015) (nominal) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#2009_.E2.80.93_present)

There is a ticking time bomb but it's in the other socialist republic. :(

The US can and always will pay it's bills, that's why US bond yields are so low. It's not the size of the debt, it's your ability to pay it..

nicklcool
12-06-2015, 00:32
The US can and always will pay it's bills, that's why US bond yields are so low. It's not the size of the debt, it's your ability to pay it..

Yes Nobby that's how it has been and continues to be but don't you wonder about what the near future holds? When you look at all the various indicators like:

Declining workforce participation rate
Increasing food stamp recipients
Increasing citizens on SSDI
Increasing illegal immigration from 3rd world countries
Drawing ever closer to 2025 when Social Security is expected to become insolvent
Increasing regulation and taxes
Increasing mood of populism/hate the rich throughout the country

It doesn't look likely that USA will continue to be able to sustain the unsustainable. :book:

Fantastika
12-06-2015, 00:59
"Worst Not Over for Russia as Economy Shrinks 4.3% in April"

This is no surprise, it was predicted at the end of last year.

No surprise that, from the Moscow Times. And in the US, the New York Times is talking of a "fabulous" recovery based on a negative growth rate in GDP. The US GDP calculation was adjusted 2% upward by Obama a couple of years ago, so actually the growth rate in the first quarter is -2.5%. It goes along with an official unemployment rate of 5.5%, while the actual rate is 15%.

I wonder how the Western think tanks, economic NGO's and their puppy-dog media are adjusting Russia's figures, to paint a bleak landscape?

Nobbynumbnuts
12-06-2015, 01:06
Yes Nobby that's how it has been and continues to be but don't you wonder about what the near future holds?.......

Ah, who knows what the future holds..:10293:

Nobbynumbnuts
12-06-2015, 01:09
.....I wonder how the Western think tanks, economic NGO's and their puppy-dog media are adjusting Russia's figures, to paint a bleak landscape?

Ah, it's all a conspiracy then, Russia is really an engine of growth...:10293:

fenrir
12-06-2015, 09:43
No surprise that, from the Moscow Times. And in the US, the New York Times is talking of a "fabulous" recovery based on a negative growth rate in GDP. The US GDP calculation was adjusted 2% upward by Obama a couple of years ago, so actually the growth rate in the first quarter is -2.5%. It goes along with an official unemployment rate of 5.5%, while the actual rate is 15%.

I wonder how the Western think tanks, economic NGO's and their puppy-dog media are adjusting Russia's figures, to paint a bleak landscape?

The Moscow Times is now 80% owned by a Putin ally, so that excuse is out the window. Btw, the MT sources its information from RBC. Have fun proving it wrong because you basically can't.

Carl
12-06-2015, 13:23
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/domino-effect-novgorod-becomes-first-russian-region-to-default--report/523411.html

This can be a ticking economic time bomb.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.. VVP will straighten it all out.
He just probably didn't know about it.

nicklcool
12-06-2015, 13:40
The Moscow Times is now 80% owned by a Putin ally, so that excuse is out the window. Btw, the MT sources its information from RBC. Have fun proving it wrong because you basically can't.
The economic staats aren't wrong, they're just out of context. The author thinks Russian debt of 3% of GDP is unsustainable while 105% of GDP over in the USA is supposedly perfectly sustainable!

fenrir
12-06-2015, 15:38
The economic staats aren't wrong, they're just out of context. The author thinks Russian debt of 3% of GDP is unsustainable while 105% of GDP over in the USA is supposedly perfectly sustainable!

It's not out of context. The US can pay off its debt but Russia has limited revenue streams due to a not-very-diversified economy and inflationary pressures it put on itself. Add to that the insane % of government spending that is going into the military instead of infrastructure, education, medicine and the economy in general, and you have a recipe for financial disaster.

FatAndy
12-06-2015, 15:43
the insane % of government spending that is going into the military instead of infrastructure, education, medicine and the economy in general
You still envy, comrade. ;)

Fantastika
12-06-2015, 17:24
It's not out of context. The US can pay off its debt but Russia has limited revenue streams due to a not-very-diversified economy and inflationary pressures it put on itself. Add to that the insane % of government spending that is going into the military instead of infrastructure, education, medicine and the economy in general, and you have a recipe for financial disaster.

What? The US can pay off its debt? How, when? There's going to be a Ukraine-type default. If interest rates go from 1% to just 5%, the yearly payment on debt (just to pay the interest) would go to $1 trillion!

Money should be going into education? The US government spends 40? $billions every year, and doesn't educate a single child. Every tax dollar goes into some bureaucrat's and pension plan. The "economy in general"? Are you talking about the $2 trillion that Obama said he would put into infrastructure? Well, it was used to prop up bankrupt state and city governments like Detroit and California, and big union pension plans?

The recipe for financial disaster, the US meal being prepared by out-of-control politicians spending everyone's money including their children's and grandchildren's posterity, will be a turkey burned in the oven, when the rest of the world stops supporting the dollar as the world's only reserve currency.

Suuryaa
12-06-2015, 19:38
when the rest of the world stops supporting the dollar as the world's only reserve currency.

Do you think this will happen?

nicklcool
12-06-2015, 19:58
Do you think this will happen?

Well no one knows the future as Nobby explained so well but if we look at history, it was Bretton Woods and the end of WWII with America as the victor that set the dollar as the reserve currency. Terrifying as it sounds it's probably WWIII or a revolution in America that ends the dollar's reserve currency status (some out there think the goings-on of today are marking the beginning of WWIII).

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 00:36
It's not out of context. The US can pay off its debt but Russia has limited revenue streams due to a not-very-diversified economy and inflationary pressures it put on itself. Add to that the insane % of government spending that is going into the military instead of infrastructure, education, medicine and the economy in general, and you have a recipe for financial disaster.



America has a diverse economy? It gets less diverse every year. You must mean like how WalMart is the biggest employer now, or maybe it's that 80% of Americans are on one kind of drug or more, or maybe it that 27% of Americans are obese or 48 million people are on food stamps or the fact that the rich are getting richer while more people are spending more of their money just on food. Maybe if you stopped worrying about what Putin is doing and start worrying about what is going on in your own country you'd pick up on small facts that show America is in very bad shape.

fenrir
13-06-2015, 09:36
America has a diverse economy? It gets less diverse every year. You must mean like how WalMart is the biggest employer now, or maybe it's that 80% of Americans are on one kind of drug or more, or maybe it that 27% of Americans are obese or 48 million people are on food stamps or the fact that the rich are getting richer while more people are spending more of their money just on food. Maybe if you stopped worrying about what Putin is doing and start worrying about what is going on in your own country you'd pick up on small facts that show America is in very bad shape.

You should be more concerned with the 3 million Russians who have recently slipped into poverty and the 20% who can only afford food with their low family incomes since you live in Russia. What are your solutions to solve these problems? You've already given up on America.

FatAndy
13-06-2015, 11:09
You should be more concerned with the 3 million Russians who have recently slipped into poverty and the 20% who can only afford food with their low family incomes since you live in Russia. What are your solutions to solve these problems? You've already given up on America.
Don't worry about Russians, we'll manage somehow. How many ppl receive foodstamps in US, you told?

Buy sprats, comrade. ;) Catch the super discount moment.
BTW what about your 30 L of cider? Finished or not yet? If not, you have to. And buy apples again, help prominent Polish economy...

Insha alla.

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 13:16
You should be more concerned with the 3 million Russians who have recently slipped into poverty and the 20% who can only afford food with their low family incomes since you live in Russia. What are your solutions to solve these problems? You've already given up on America.



Russians have a much more humane society. For example a supermarket near my girlfriends place gives out free food! That's right, at night just at closing time they give out dated food to babushkas for free! The babushka just wait by the back door. That would never happen in America, in fact they now arrest people who try to feed the homeless! Also for a fact Russia has much fewer homeless than the US.

Russian Lad
13-06-2015, 17:13
Russians have a much more humane society. For example a supermarket near my girlfriends place gives out free food! That's right, at night just at closing time they give out dated food to babushkas for free! The babushka just wait by the back door.
:5387::5387::5387::Loco::10293:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfpKCCGRuFM

P.S. I was just passing by. Not planning to discuss anything. Yet. But so far, so good, I am totally happy with how the things unravel.

FatAndy
13-06-2015, 20:54
:5387::5387::5387::Loco::10293:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfpKCCGRuFM

P.S. I was just passing by. Not planning to discuss anything. Yet. But so far, so good, I am totally happy with how the things unravel.
Judging by the header of the video, you've found the link at somewhat banderlog site? ;) Good luck, comrade...

Russian Lad
13-06-2015, 21:00
Judging by the header of the video, you've found the link at somewhat banderlog site? Good luck, comrade...

Most likely those are professional babushka actors hired by Gosdep to undermine the prospering Rodina. I know what you mean. I am sure Wally's babushkas get their outdated food neatly wrapped and with heart-felt postcards, at a decent ceremony with an orchestra, not via garbage containers like in this video. :watching: However, I would assume spoiled food should end up in garbage containers, not in babushkas' stomachs. We seem to have a different take on this subject. Didn't want to comment, but this just begged for a comment.

vossy7
13-06-2015, 21:16
:5387::5387::5387::Loco::10293:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfpKCCGRuFM

P.S. I was just passing by. Not planning to discuss anything. Yet. But so far, so good, I am totally happy with how the things unravel.

Hey RL, hope all is well with you and your loved ones :10518:

Russian Lad
13-06-2015, 22:33
Hey RL, hope all is well with you and your loved ones

Yeah, I am ok.:) Drop here every now and then to read stuff, I will come in full force a bit later. Together with the wind. :watching:

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 22:38
Yeah, I am ok.:) Drop here every now and then to read stuff, I will come in full force a bit later. Together with the wind. :watching:



You mean like a fart?

fenrir
13-06-2015, 22:46
Russians have a much more humane society. For example a supermarket near my girlfriends place gives out free food! That's right, at night just at closing time they give out dated food to babushkas for free! The babushka just wait by the back door. That would never happen in America, in fact they now arrest people who try to feed the homeless! Also for a fact Russia has much fewer homeless than the US.

Really? All those church and other community food kitchens are a CIA front? They don't really give out free food to the needy? And proof to back that up?

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 22:47
Most likely those are professional babushka actors hired by Gosdep to undermine the prospering Rodina. I know what you mean. I am sure Wally's babushkas get their outdated food neatly wrapped and with heart-felt postcards, at a decent ceremony with an orchestra, not via garbage containers like in this video. :watching: However, I would assume spoiled food should end up in garbage containers, not in babushkas' stomachs. We seem to have a different take on this subject. Didn't want to comment, but this just begged for a comment.



I read your other post before this one and now I know I was right. Just passing gas.


In the US they sell out dated food.

Here no it not wrapped but brought out in a shopping cart. If you understood that the dates on food are "best before" the food is still good.

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 22:51
Really? All those church and other community food kitchens are a CIA front? They don't really give out free food to the needy? And proof to back that up?



I really don't care what you think. Do you understand that? You have a warped knowledge of what really goes on. YouTube it and you will see people working for churches getting shut down and even arrested. Or just keep on being f@#king stupid.

Russian Lad
13-06-2015, 22:52
If you understood that the dates on food are "best before" the food is still good.

Bon appetit in the future. That is, if your liver allows you for the luxury of a future. :watching: Anyway, talk to you guys in some months, in the meantime, I have more pressing things to do, these discussions are useless anyway. Up to a point. And this point is approaching with the speed of a very fast train.

Uncle Wally
13-06-2015, 22:57
Bon appetit in the future. That is, if your liver allows you for the luxury of a future. :watching: Anyway, talk to you guys in some months, in the meantime, I have more pressing things to do, these discussions are useless anyway. Up to a point. And this point is approaching with the speed of a very fast train.



Kisses! Have a good time ��

FatAndy
14-06-2015, 00:54
Anyway, talk to you guys in some months, in the meantime, I have more pressing things to do, these discussions are useless anyway. Up to a point. And this point is approaching with the speed of a very fast train.
Have your time, good luck. :rasta:

nicklcool
14-06-2015, 03:01
Bon appetit in the future. That is, if your liver allows you for the luxury of a future. :watching: Anyway, talk to you guys in some months, in the meantime, I have more pressing things to do, these discussions are useless anyway. Up to a point. And this point is approaching with the speed of a very fast train.

RL your blinders allow you only to focus on the minutae of daily ruble-dollar exchange rates, so you fail to see the bigger economic picture.

The youtube clip is sad, but it's apples and oranges. If RF had as many numerous social "programs" as USA (food stamps, unemployment, section 8 housing, TAA, training programs for long term inemployed, utilities assistance, obamaphones, maybe soon obama internet, SSDI, etc.) then you would not see the pensioners scrounging....they'd be buying caviar with their food stamps!

The bigger economic picture is that the economic fundamentals of RF are stronger: plenty of natural resources to sell, lower national deficit, lower social spending as proportion of GDP, higher military spending, etc. ( I posted all the links earlier in this thread) The USA has her status as the global reserve currency, which allows her to borrow borrow borrow spend spend spend, and not much else. Oh and a powerful military to maybe threaten her debtees but if her low military spending and Russia's higher military spending continue, that won't last long.

Next time you drop into the forums I'd love to hear your opinion of the Russian economic fundamentals. Think of it like a financial advisor reviewing a company's stock, you look not just at the daily trading value of the stock (you'd lose your shirt!), but more importantly at the company's fundamentals.

Russian Lad
14-06-2015, 03:12
you fail to see the bigger economic picture.
Next time you drop into the forums I'd love to hear your opinion of the Russian economic fundamentals.

The fundamentals are helplessly flawed and are getting worse every day.
You don't need to listen to me, see below. And tell me after reading it who is comparing apples with oranges. Or fingers with penises maybe.:)

Mister Ulukaev, the Russian Federation minister of economic development, a few days ago (http://www.euroline.by/economics/6985-rossii-minimum-50-let-do-ekonomicheskoy-superderzhavy.html ):
"Конечно, экономически Россия - это не супердержава, потому что наша доля в мировой экономике составляет 3-3,5 процента, что в девять-десять раз меньше, чем у США. Нам понадобится как минимум пятьдесят лет устойчивого роста экономики, чтобы быть в клубе действительно экономических супердержав".
Translation: "Of course, from the economic standpoint, Russia is not a superpower, because our share in the global economy amounts to 3-3.5%, which is 9-10 times less than the share of the US. We will need at least fifty years of a stable growth of our economy in order to join the club of real economic superpowers".

nicklcool
14-06-2015, 03:33
The fundamentals are helplessly flawed and are getting worse every day.
You don't need to listen to me, see below.

Mister Ulukaev, the Russian Federation minister of economic development, a few days ago (http://www.euroline.by/economics/6985-rossii-minimum-50-let-do-ekonomicheskoy-superderzhavy.html):
"Конечно, экономически Россия - это не супердержава, потому что наша доля в мировой экономике составляет 3-3,5 процента, что в девять-десять раз меньше, чем у США. Нам понадобится как минимум пятьдесят лет устойчивого роста экономики, чтобы быть в клубе действительно экономических супердержав".
Translation: "Of course, from the economic standpoint, Russia is not a superpower, because our share in the global economy amounts to 3-3.5%, which is 9-10 times less than the share of the US. We will need at least fifty years of a stable growth of our economy in order to join the club of real economic superpowers".


Fascinating quote; I'd love to see what question he was answering, or the full interview (Russian is OK for me). LOL, I wanted to counter with something about abundant natural resources being Russia's strength, but Google spit out this among the top results: Resource Curse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse) :doh:

Still, IMHO weak share of the global economy does not mean your economy is in insurmountable decline. Also, it's worth remembering:
1. RF is only 25 years into the Capitalist experiment.
2. VPP acknowledged there was an economic dip that would continue for some time, due to the decline in the price of gas more than the sanctions.
3. Isn't this great for economic growth: RF has far fewer quantity of social programs (I assume this means fewer expenditures as well) than USA and the Western European countries.
4. RF has a closed-market customer for natural gas (EU),who looks to be needing h=to buy her resources for some time
5. RF has less regulation and less market saturation; doesn't this equal better opportunity to build and grow successful companies?
6. WWII is what really propelled USA to economic powerhouse status,and if these are the beginnings of WWIII Russia could stand to profit from the war as well.

At the very least if we're using USA's economy as the measuring stick, we should notice how so many think the bullish US stock market is running on the fumes of a house of cards and it will be interesting to see how she reacts to/weathers the aftermath when the stock market turns bearish.

Russian Lad
14-06-2015, 04:01
Nick, I can comment on each point in detail, but frankly, I am just lazy to do that.:) I don't even see a subject for debate, to me my country is in deep shit. I personally plan to profit from it, frankly, as long as there is no WW-III, but I doubt this scenario is highly likely at this point.
I agree with you that looking just at currency rates is not wise and one has to see the bigger picture. The bigger picture is - Russia is being increasingly isolated from the West and we are just plain lucky we have nukes, otherwise there would be no Swift and there would be an almost total blockade and Somalia in a week. Instead, there is a gradual deterioration, it will gain its peak in 1-2 years, if not earlier. Only high oil prices have been boosting the economy, nothing else. It was even more effective under Eltsin, when oil was like 10-20 dollars, imho. Let's see what happens when oil is 40 or even 30 for a rather long period of time.
China is not in a hurry to throw the lifeline either - they don't need or want a strong and prospering Russia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKMOzWyEROM

nicklcool
14-06-2015, 06:03
I mostly agree with your points but don't agree that isolation from the West and lower oil prices spell a Somalia future for Russia. Many of these factors have existed a long time, many since the collapse in 89, so what has changed that makes Russia in decline now?? Or are we saying that Russia never really got out of decline since the collapse? I think no one agrees with the latter so what I'd say is that Russia was doing quite well until the 08 crisis (when all nations took a hit), and now the sanctions and the blip of lower oil prices are hurting the economy. IMHO no one expects low oil prices or the sanctions to last forever, so Russia is safe from economic collapse, as the USA continues to resemble the USSR more and more thanks to these wacky social and economic policies.

LOL, I just got an idea....I'm looking to move to Russia by the end if the year, it looks like you want to get out; can we swap passports? It'd make the paperwork a whole lot easier ;)

Russian Lad
14-06-2015, 06:56
Many of these factors have existed a long time, many since the collapse in 89, so what has changed that makes Russia in decline now?

Comparing those times with the present would be as incorrect as, say, comparing 1989 with 1917. But yes, there are many similarities. I am curious as to what happens if and when the oil prices drop dramatically and just stubbornly stay there, say, at 30 or even 20. Russia's biggest problems are corruption and overcentralization of everything, the system is so outdated and even feudal I don't know even where to start describing the problems. To me it looks like nothing in any way serious is done without an order from Moscow.
USSR indeed was blockaded by the West in many ways, but it was self-reliant, in an ugly and uncomfortable way, but really self-reliant. Today's Russia - a very different story. To make it self-reliant in any meaningful way and in a short period of time, you would need to manage it the North Korean style (that is, under the current lay of the land, i.e. with the outdated forms of management and centralized everything) - and even then there would be no guarantees it would really work. But they have their wealth and their children in the West, and they like Western goods - cars, phones, computers, what not, so it is out of the question.



IMHO no one expects low oil prices or the sanctions to last forever, so Russia is safe from economic collapse

To me it is quite clear that neither the US nor Europe will lift their sanctions while the Crimea is Russian, even if Donbass is settled somehow. But it will not be settled separately, it seems to be turning into a package. Moreover, they are talking about stepping up sanctions.
It is also clear to me that oil production is seeing its last decades, en large. The Saudis are talking about switching from oil to other energy sources, for instance. It is quite symptomatic. Before oil goes out of vogue, it may become as cheap as water while consumers will be switching to other energy sources. I can see these days basically around the corner - 20-30 years from now or even faster.


LOL, I just got an idea....I'm looking to move to Russia by the end if the year, it looks like you want to get out; can we swap passports?

I would do it with pleasure, however, I am a self-reliant guy who was last employed in 2008 in the traditional sense of the word, so where I live doesn't matter that much, unless they turn Russia into something real nasty, that is. I want to live in a warmer climate though, am tired of crazy Russian winters and lack of sunshine. What are you planning to do in Russia? Where do you live now?

FatAndy
14-06-2015, 11:21
To me it is quite clear that neither the US nor Europe will lift their sanctions while the Crimea is Russian, even if Donbass is settled somehow. But it will not be settled separately, it seems to be turning into a package.
While? :D Because, comrade. ;)
And Donbass won't be settled. Banderlog's masters don't want it. At least for the current moment.

Russian Lad
14-06-2015, 13:47
While? Because, comrade.

If you insist, comrade.

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 14:48
CBR key interest rate is down from 12.5% to 11.5%

Uncle Wally
15-06-2015, 15:56
CBR key interest rate is down from 12.5% to 11.5%



That's right because of zero inflation.


Because things are getting better. Funny how after the G7 things in Ukraine stop.

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 16:12
That's right because of zero inflation.
Not sure, CBR doesn't report me yet.


Funny how after the G7 things in Ukraine stop.
No, there will be more mess, maidowns need money, G7 didn't say anything concrete, besides usual blah-blah-blah.

Uncle Wally
15-06-2015, 16:16
Not sure, CBR doesn't report me yet.


No, there will be more mess, maidowns need money, G7 didn't say anything concrete, besides usual blah-blah-blah.



I read that today somewhere.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 16:19
CBR key interest rate is down from 12.5% to 11.5%

The CBR has cut rates because the Russian economy has contracted (-3.8%) Which reduces inflation due to lower demand.

If Russia had zero inflation it would be in serious trouble of deflation! :rolleyes::p

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 16:55
The CBR has cut rates because the Russian economy has contracted (-3.8%)
Yes, I heard it from somewhat... eeerh... guy ;) - torn into pieces (C)


If Russia had zero inflation it would be in serious trouble of deflation! :rolleyes::p
Yes, it's in everyday trouble, for last 400 years at least. :soccer:

Insha alla!

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 17:21
....Yes, it's in everyday trouble, for last 400 years at least. :soccer:

Insha alla!

Your opinion comrade.

No deflation. Inflation yes, at 6-7%

Allah kareem ;)


Yes, I heard it from somewhat... eeerh... guy ;) - torn into pieces (C)........

Perhaps.. lol :p

http://top.rbc.ru/economics/15/06/2015/557eb64f9a79474a393ab9cc

Economist predicted Russia Sonin 10 years of stagnation

Konstantin Sonin believes that the investment climate in Russia is bad and bad will "for the foreseeable future." The successful import substitution, according to him, people believe that "do not understand what they say"
Already in 2016, Russia's economy will resume its growth, but all the next years GDP will grow very slowly, he said in an interview with RBC professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Studies, former Vice-Chancellor of the Higher School of Economics, Konstantin Sonin.

"For the foreseeable future, I think we should expect stagnation, that is something like the average growth rate between zero and one. Well, here's how in 2012, zero percent growth, as will be approximately the next 10 years. Zero One. This does not mean that there will be those years when there will be 3%, but this will be compensated by the next recession, "- said Sonin.

The investment climate in Russia, according to the professor, in the coming years will remain poor. The "extremely poor" will not only foreign investment, but also the number of Russians who are ready to invest their money and efforts in new projects in the country.

The prospect raised by the Russian authorities on the import Sonin shield also does not believe.

"Those who speak about import substitution, they do not understand what they say. Well, I would say that they are nonsense. As a result, import of this product will be less subject imports before, and it will cost more. There are no successful examples of import substitution in the economy of scale has not been and will not be. We are not discussing the substance of the existing "- said Sonin.
Ideas substitution of economic relations with Europe of equal cooperation with China and other BRICS countries Sonin also believes "futile fantasies."

"We must understand what Russia is and what is China. Russia and China can have no equal partnership. Russia may join as the three provinces, but it is a small economy with a high near. And the man who thinks differently does not live in this world, not on Earth, "- said the expert.

In December 2014 Sonin resigned as vice-rector of the Higher School of Economics, and in May 2015 announced that moved to Chicago, where he will work in the Harris School of Public Policy Studies, explained that the move is connected and "the political events of recent years ". "Until 2014, I had no thoughts of finding a permanent job abroad. However, this is only one factor, "- wrote economist.

Commenting on the departure of Sonin in the US, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that does not see anything special.

"The Kremlin regret when prominent economists are going to work abroad. The Kremlin welcomed when prominent economists come to work in Russia - whether our citizens or foreign. These processes are reciprocal, so here is nothing special there, "- said Peskov.

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 17:46
Perhaps.. lol :p

http://top.rbc.ru/economics/15/06/2015/557eb64f9a79474a393ab9cc

Economist predicted Russia Sonin 10 years of stagnation
Nobby, I'd consider somewhat ideas to be at least partially true, if they go from a person, having an experience, a bit different from picking nose in an armchair. Just a practice in real factory, farm, everyday work at least in microeconomics.

Unfortunately neither Sonin nor Guriev (another "sausage emigrant") have any. It's such the medical fact.

We call such ones experDs (ex-farts or fart-outs).

Maktub. :rasta:

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 17:50
Nobby, I'd consider somewhat ideas to be at least partially true, if they go from a person, having an experience, a bit different from picking nose in an armchair. Unfortunately neither Sonin nor Guriev (another "sausage emigrant") have any. Maktub. :rasta:

Of course comrade. "Give me the news i want to hear" lol ;)

Посмотрим!

AstarD
15-06-2015, 17:50
Nobby, I'd consider somewhat ideas to be at least partially true, if they go from a person, having an experience, a bit different from picking nose in an armchair. Unfortunately neither Sonin nor Guriev (another "sausage emigrant") have any.

We call such ones experDs (ex-farts or fart-outs).

Maktub. :rasta:Sonin has no experience? Are you smoking something?

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 17:53
Sonin has no experience?
In practice? Sure. He hasn't and never had, will see for his future excersizes. ;) The same is for Guriev. Pure armchair theoretics. ExperDs. :)


Are you smoking something?
Yes, Belomor. :rasta: Rostov tobacco factory has launched metal boxes with them several years ago, instead of carton ones from Soviet epoch.


Посмотрим!
...said the blind one ;)

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 18:01
...said the blind one ;)

Perhaps they'll be a miracle...lol :p

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 18:04
http://www.interfax.ru/business/447510
https://news.mail.ru/politics/22353237/
Nabiullina promises to decrease (maybe slightly) key interest rate in the future, the next discussion is 31st Jul 2015.


Perhaps they'll be a miracle...lol :p
It depends, but not from you or Astarochka ;)

Russian Lad
15-06-2015, 18:43
Because things are getting better.

3 (three) million more Russians below the poverty line during the last three months alone according to the official Russian stats, and you claim things are getting better. Talk about losing all touch with reality.
Steve Jobs had what he called "reality distortion field" and indeed was sometimes able to bend the reality around him with his sheer willpower, even "make a dent in the universe". Your attempts at that are just plain funny, to say the least.


Nabiullina promises to decrease (maybe slightly) key interest rate in the future, the next discussion is 31st Jul 2015.

The economy was tanking even when the CB interest rate was 5%, so whatever they do with it doesn't really matter much at this stage, imho.

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 18:50
The economy was tanking even when the CB interest rate was 5%, so whatever they do with it doesn't really matter much at this stage, imho.
Ouch, one more armchair theoretical specialist... :eh: 5.5 it was.

Judge
15-06-2015, 18:59
In practice? Sure. He hasn't and never had, will see for his future excersizes. ;) The same is for Guriev. Pure armchair theoretics. ExperDs. :)



You're right, they are what the Greek,Yanis Varoufakis used to be,he's in the top job now,not sitting on the sidelines shouting what should be done, now he's in the thick of it all...It's a totally different game when you're in the game, not sitting and writing articles or a lecturer at a university.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 19:14
...Nabiullina promises to decrease (maybe slightly) key interest rate in the future, the next discussion is 31st Jul 2015.........

It's a certainty if the economy doesn't improve. Lower interest rates will stimulate demand...

Russian Lad
15-06-2015, 19:20
5.5 it was.

5.53489343539033093655644554466433453643544554

Judge
15-06-2015, 19:20
It's a certainty if the economy doesn't improve. Lower interest rates will stimulate demand...

It's every Russians dream to be able to borrow at 5-6%, even 9% would be awesome. .

Russian Lad
15-06-2015, 19:22
It's every Russians dream to be able to borrow at 5-6%

Yeah, right, I just keep wet-dreaming about exactly that, with my pants down, my right hand busy and my mouth drooling, and will rush to borrow as soon as it is exactly 5-6%.:eh:

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 19:22
You're right, they are what the Greek,Yanis Varoufakis used to be,he's in the top job now,not sitting on the sidelines shouting what should be done, now he's in the thick of it all...It's a totally different game when you're in the game, not sitting and writing articles or a lecturer at a university.

..but different ways of looking at this. An 'expert' working within the government's financial policy program is likely to be 'towing' the party line in communications. Whereas an 'expert' outside is likely to make an individual assessment.........but not always. ;)

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 19:25
5.53489343539033093655644554466433453643544554
Yo, braza, you do well, try to calculate Pi number ;)


Yeah, right, I just keep wet-dreaming about exactly that, with my pants down, my right hand busy and my mouth drooling, and will rush to borrow as soon as it is exactly 5-6%.:eh:
...or try to work, it may help :)

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 19:28
It's every Russians dream to be able to borrow at 5-6%, even 9% would be awesome. .

Would be great of course but are the banks lending?

As i mentioned before, low interest rates are a reflection of the state of the economy (est. contraction -3.8% this year)

Judge
15-06-2015, 19:36
..but different ways of looking at this. An 'expert' working within the government's financial policy program is likely to be 'towing' the party line in communications. Whereas an 'expert' outside is likely to make an individual assessment.........but not always. ;)

Yes, not always, even western economist ,I think it was the righteous economist from the World Bank,said the Russian economy outlook isn't as bad as they first thought...
Will see who is right...

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 19:44
Yes, not always, even western economist ,I think it was the righteous economist from the World Bank,said the Russian economy outlook isn't as bad as they first thought...
Will see who is right...

Right, just as every finance minister talks up the economy with 'things will get better'...

Judge
15-06-2015, 19:59
Right, just as every finance minister talks up the economy with 'things will get better'...

Tell that to the Greek FM,
that's why the others can't deal with him, he tells them how it really is...

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 20:10
Tell that to the Greek FM,
that's why the others can't deal with him, he tells them how it really is...

Greece is a special case. Of course he'll spin the worst case scenario for the Greek economy and the effects of the EU's repayment demands on the population.
All part of the hard-nosed bargaining that will go on right up to the last minute, in my opinion.

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 21:41
Greece is a special case. Of course he'll spin the worst case scenario for the Greek economy and the effects of the EU's repayment demands on the population.
All part of the hard-nosed bargaining that will go on right up to the last minute, in my opinion.
Everything is a special case. Your C.O. ;)

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 21:54
....Your C.O. ;)

My C.O?

FatAndy
15-06-2015, 21:59
My C.O?
Yep, sincerely. :)

Nobbynumbnuts
15-06-2015, 22:03
Yep, sincerely. :)

What does that mean, my C.O?

Uncle Wally
15-06-2015, 23:08
What does that mean, my C.O?




Lets guess!

Russian Lad
15-06-2015, 23:34
Communist Orthodox? Carnivorous Opossum? C*nt Olga? Cute Ostrich? Criminal Oligarch?

Nobbynumbnuts
16-06-2015, 00:50
Communist Orthodox? Carnivorous Opossum? C*nt Olga? Cute Ostrich? Criminal Oligarch?

Perhaps Andy will show up and have the courage to explain what he want's to call me lol :p

Uncle Wally
16-06-2015, 02:15
Communist Orthodox? Carnivorous Opossum? C*nt Olga? Cute Ostrich? Criminal Oligarch?



All very good try's RL!


Current Opportunist?

Carnivorous Operator?

Calculating Obsessive?

Cesspool Oblivion?

Or maybe Captain Obvious!

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 04:00
Would be great of course but are the banks lending?

As i mentioned before, low interest rates are a reflection of the state of the economy (est. contraction -3.8% this year)

Then why are record low (zero!) interest rates in the USA for a record length of time considered not a problem in the USA, but for Russia they are? :groan:

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 04:04
What does that mean, my C.O?


Maybe he meant M.O.?? (Modus Operandi)

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 04:43
Then why are record low (zero!) interest rates in the USA for a record length of time considered not a problem in the USA, but for Russia they are?

You call the new CB interest rate record low? Wow. Just wow. What makes it record low in any meaningful sense of the word? When you are in Russia, you should befriend Wally, I assume distorting the reality field together is more fun than doing it alone.
It is not that I fully understood Nobby's statement, either. In my opinion, they are just checking the resilience of the system to see if they may have overreacted with those 14%. But we have no real info as to what the CB is really doing, their statements are contradictory and sometimes are even mutually exclusive. Who really knows how much cash they have left to play with and what policies they are aiming at. To me it looks like they are just going with the flow, hoping for the best and bluffing, bluffing, bluffing - I can see it because I spent a lot of time in casinos - and saw people bluffing like there is no tomorrow and getting ruined. In my opinion, their only hope is a miracle. Maybe the second coming of Jesus Christ. Nothing short of that is going to help at this point. The Game is approaching its endspiel.

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 04:44
It is also clear to me that oil production is seeing its last decades, en large. The Saudis are talking about switching from oil to other energy sources, for instance. It is quite symptomatic. Before oil goes out of vogue, it may become as cheap as water while consumers will be switching to other energy sources. I can see these days basically around the corner - 20-30 years from now or even faster.

This part has to be called out! Many a prognosticator has called for the end of oil's dominance, beginning probably with crappy overpriced solar panel technology in the 70s and continuing with end-of-the-world crackpot theorists who warned about global warming. Many have called for the coming end of oil's dominance and many have been wrong - there's nothing other than people's "hunches" to suggest that oil and the combustible engine will be losing their dominance anytime soon. With oil remaining in demand and Russia continuing to have lots of it, Russia should be on sure footing for some time to come.




I would do it with pleasure, however, I am a self-reliant guy who was last employed in 2008 in the traditional sense of the word, so where I live doesn't matter that much, unless they turn Russia into something real nasty, that is. I want to live in a warmer climate though, am tired of crazy Russian winters and lack of sunshine. What are you planning to do in Russia? Where do you live now?

Glad you're the self-employed type! That's where I'm heading, and the ripeness and non-saturation of the market in Russia is what's leading me back to my wife's homeland. We got married in the bitter cold in February in Russia and I uprooted her from her decent job in Moscow to head for the American dream and promise of a better life economically. We're doing OK now but given that I chose a non-STEM major, all that's open to me really are boring administrative jobs (I'm in higher-ed), so I'm heading back to Russia before I get a dreaded fourth position on my resume in this soul-crushing field and get stuck there in some awful Matrix like the poor saps in the movie Office Space! ...Trust me, despite all the rosy stats in the USA, the late 00's college grads like me are in a rough space career-wise - and I'm lucky; so many of my comrades are stuck in Starbucks-like work or going to grad school to hide while this "recovery" from the recession just slogs along :/

One more thing, you may be wishing ill will on your odnozemliki, RL, but their steadfastness and the strength of the culture in Russia will help them brave any storm the West throws their way! :12115:

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 04:46
You call the new CB interest rate record low? What makes it record low in any meaningful sense of the word?

No, pardon me, I was questioning why nobby would equate the lowering of the CB rate in Russia with a weakening of the economy, while no one is making the same argument RE: USA's very very low rate.

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 05:02
there's nothing other than people's "hunches" to suggest that oil and the combustible engine will be losing their dominance anytime soon. With oil remaining in demand and Russia continuing to have lots of it, Russia should be on sure footing for some time to come.

It is not my hunch, really, I worked in the oil industry and know for a fact that the resources are limited. Even IF no one switches to solar energy big time during the coming 40-50 years, the oil remaining by this time will be very hard to reach, and the costs will be crazy. In a sense, humankind will be forced to turn to new sources of energy. Nothing unusual in that - it used to be wood, then coal, now oil, gas, solar energy just begs to be exploited big time. The technologies are developing very fast. Who thought about nuclear energy like some 80 years ago? Not very many people.


Glad you're the self-employed type! That's where I'm heading, and the ripeness and non-saturation of the market in Russia is what's leading me back to my wife's homeland. We got married in the bitter cold in February in Russia and I uprooted her from her decent job in Moscow to head for the American dream and promise of a better life economically. We're doing OK now but given that I chose a non-STEM major, all that's open to me really are boring administrative jobs (I'm in higher-ed), so I'm heading back to Russia before I get a dreaded fourth position on my resume in this soul-crushing field and get stuck there in some awful Matrix like the poor saps in the movie Office Space! ...Trust me, despite all the rosy stats in the USA, the late 00's college grads like me are in a rough space career-wise - and I'm lucky; so many of my comrades are stuck in Starbucks-like work or going to grad school to hide while this "recovery" from the recession just slogs along :/

Yes, I know life is not all roses in the US. My principle is always to go against the flow, plain and simple. I don't want to join any companies.:) It is a really easy choice here in Russia - the pay is almost always crappy unless you have solid connections (do you have them?) or are a "stretchable" lady or are, like, a real genius with the international fame. I work as a freelance translator, am making a dating site, will monetize on it later. I enjoy being a nobody here, to tell you the truth.


One more thing, you may be wishing ill will on your odnozemliki, RL, but their steadfastness and the strength of the culture in Russia will help them brave any storm the West throws their way!

Odnozemliki?:) Don't know the word, maybe you mean земляки? I would not talk about it in such generalities. Pissing against the wind never brought good results. The current policies are like trying to take a shit in vacuum (or in a very crowded public place), it is not very convenient and most likely will leave quite a few smudges and smears, including on the face, that's all. I am entirely pragmatic in how I view the situation and the imminent results. And there are still millions of Russians who share my views (there will be many more because many more will be ruined soon and will look for the real answers as to why it happened to them), so, once again, no need to over-generalize.
Not sure how an American fits into this picture here:). What is your battle plan after you set foot on Russia's soil?:)
Speaking about proud земляки, I remember the nineties (the beginning was fun: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1QAezn9HA0) and can tell you it is a myth. Proof from this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V7Ydx3dB9E (Would you be willing to eat pancakes served to you on a shovel while you are standing behind a metal fence?:))

Nobbynumbnuts
16-06-2015, 12:16
Then why are record low (zero!) interest rates in the USA for a record length of time considered not a problem in the USA, but for Russia they are? :groan:

Please show me where i said they weren't..

Nobbynumbnuts
16-06-2015, 12:22
No, pardon me, I was questioning why nobby would equate the lowering of the CB rate in Russia with a weakening of the economy, while no one is making the same argument RE: USA's very very low rate.

Didn't the US go through a very severe recession too? Interest rates were lowered to '0' at one point i believe to kickstart the economy. Recovery is now underway.

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 12:33
Didn't the US go through a very severe recession too? Interest rates were lowered to '0' at one point i believe to kickstart the economy. Recovery is now underway.

That's the thing. Many (5? More??) years later, they're still at zero.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-06-2015, 12:51
That's the thing. Many (5? More??) years later, they're still at zero.

First things first. GDP in the US and Uk is positive. Russia's GDP is shrinking around 3.8% pa.

Reports say, interest rates will remain low (US & UK) at least through to September maybe longer. There's even talk that the recession has had fundamental changes to the economy in the west and we could be in a low interest environment for many more years. If low interest rates are coupled with healthy growth and lower unemployment that's a bonus.

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 13:14
It is not my hunch, really, I worked in the oil industry and know for a fact that the resources are limited. Even IF no one switches to solar energy big time during the coming 40-50 years, the oil remaining by this time will be very hard to reach, and the costs will be crazy. In a sense, humankind will be forced to turn to new sources of energy. Nothing unusual in that - it used to be wood, then coal, now oil, gas, solar energy just begs to be exploited big time. The technologies are developing very fast. Who thought about nuclear energy like some 80 years ago? Not very many people.

Odnozemliki?:) Don't know the word, maybe you mean земляки? I would not talk about it in such generalities. Pissing against the wind never brought good results. The current policies are like trying to take a shit in vacuum (or in a very crowded public place), it is not very convenient and most likely will leave quite a few smudges and smears, including on the face, that's all. I am entirely pragmatic in how I view the situation and the imminent results. And there are still millions of Russians who share my views (there will be many more because many more will be ruined soon and will look for the real answers as to why it happened to them), so, once again, no need to over-generalize.
Not sure how an American fits into this picture here:). What is your battle plan after you set foot on Russia's soil?:)


Maybe I've missed some of the studies or stats, but IMHO the fanfare about alternative energy sources is still just a pipe dream from big government types who try to subsidize the less efficient alternative energy sources and tax the more efficient fossil fuels to try to control consumers' decisions. But if you've seen something that points to non-fossil fuel dominance in the near future (a few decades), please, start investing in these companies! You may have have found some Apple-computer-like energy company that will revolutionize the industry and you should invest now to make millions later!
For my Russian word, odnozemliki, yes, I meant земляки, I could have swore you can add the prefix 'odno' to mean fellow countrymen but it would appear you'e right, my bad.
For my plans, I don't want to get too personal (we all love the anonymity of the interwebz), but just know that in any economic situation there are always opportunities. I highly recommend you look into reading "Cashflow Quadrant" or "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Robert Kiyosaki (the latter I know for a fact has a Russian version) for some ideas on how to develop your business. Thanks to the supposed crisis in Russia you can probably hire some programmers dirt cheap so think of the situation like a sale, not a crisis!! But if my statements about your dislike for your fellow Russians were over-generalized, accept my apologies. Your many statements on here, at least about the Russians who like VVP and reject Western values, imply that you strongly dislike them.


Speaking about proud земляки, I remember the nineties (the beginning was fun: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1QAezn9HA0) and can tell you it is a myth. Proof from this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V7Ydx3dB9E (Would you be willing to eat pancakes served to you on a shovel while you are standing behind a metal fence?:))

Funny video, that second one, but you're being disingenuous! They're serving the bliny from large spatulas, not shovels....it looks more like a promotion than feeding starving citizens. Besides, RL, trust me, when in the US they have "free" promotions, you'll see a much more violent crowd pushing & shoving for the freebies (probably this is true of any country). Ever see this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnbogYyBiQc)scene from Batman I, where the joker is tossing away free cash to attract the people to his poisonous gas? (Look about 0:51 into the clip)


As for the first video, yes, of course deficit and the lines and food coupons in USSR were very sad. Are food stamps in the USA much different than talony? :devilish: (Sorry totally off point but had to slip that jab in) But with this video I think you made my point for me! The Russians have been through such awful times that they really are a quite resourceful and strong narod. Even if the comfortable goods that Westerners and now Russians are so used to (TV, cars, vacations, dishwashers, etc.) become incredibly expensive thanks to the sanctions, I don't think this will lead to the revolution against VVP that the West is hoping for, since the Russian people are so resourceful and able to survive on very little!

And so to wrap things up I propose to the mods that this thread be re-named:
"Are the Western Sanctions Against RF Working and Does This Excite or Upset You?" seems to much better match the tone of the 80+ pages of posts here!! :10293:

Uncle Wally
16-06-2015, 13:38
First things first. GDP in the US and Uk is positive. Russia's GDP is shrinking around 3.8% pa.

Reports say, interest rates will remain low (US & UK) at least through to September maybe longer. There's even talk that the recession has had fundamental changes to the economy in the west and we could be in a low interest environment for many more years. If low interest rates are coupled with healthy growth and lower unemployment that's a bonus.



Wow do you live in fantasy land or what?

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 14:36
They're serving the bliny from large spatulas, not shovels...

Come on, those are real snow shovels, not spatulas, trust your own eyes.:)


Thanks to the supposed crisis in Russia you can probably hire some programmers dirt cheap so think of the situation like a sale, not a crisis!!

Sure, for me personally it is a feast, the Russian programmer I have hired is working for 600 rubles per hour for me and he started at 400. And he is probably more talented than Wozniak or Jobs.:) But it doesn't stop me from looking around and seeing that many people are getting impoverished. One of my friends who owns a rather big elite apartment renting business and drives a 3 million rubles worth Volvo (XC90) just recently asked me for 3 thousand rubles (aka 60 dollars) for food to feed his family, I am not making this one up. He is on the verge of being ruined.


Your many statements on here, at least about the Russians who like VVP and reject Western values, imply that you strongly dislike them.

Those who like VVP don't reject Western values at all, in the material sense. After they are done shouting their fake patriotic chants the rich "patriots" jump into their German, American or Japanese cars to go to their dachas where you will not find a single screw or brick with "made in Russia" on it, before they fly a Swiss company plane to their Maldives resort, etc. The poor "patriots" envy the rich ones in silence ((C) Fat Andy) and want the same, while they are cursing the West using American computers and Internet that was invented in the West too, and so forth, you get the concept. A song for you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEWIfS7ZIr8

Breaking news: the Chinese banks have joined Western sanctions: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/kitayskie-banki-prisoedinilis-k-sankciyam-protiv-rf-1000677922

FatAndy
16-06-2015, 16:32
Come on, those are real snow shovels, not spatulas, trust your own eyes.:)
The favourite pic/video on banderlog sites, comrade. Stop crawling around garbage containers, it's dangerous in hygienic and epidemiological sense ;)


Those who like VVP don't reject Western values at all, in the material sense.
And this is good and correct. Всякое лыко в строку. ;)


One of my friends who owns a rather big elite apartment renting business and drives a 3 million rubles worth Volvo (XC90) just recently asked me for 3 thousand rubles (aka 60 dollars) for food to feed his family
What a terrible story...:focus: It resembles me the joke about lean years, not enough bread, so caviar over sasages...:zoom:

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 16:49
The favourite pic/video on banderlog sites, comrade. Stop crawling around garbage containers, it's dangerous in hygienic and epidemiological sense

How do you know, you crawl them on the sly too, when other comrades don't see you?:) What, this video is a staged fake and not real?


And this is good and correct. Всякое лыко в строку.

To me it is funny. If it is good and correct to you - to each his own. I cannot imagine, say, an American living in the US, driving a Lada, having borsch and pelmeni for dinner every day, wearing an ushanka when it is cold, listening to Pugacheva, Kobzon and Gazmanov, flying regularly to Vorkuta resorts, keeping his life savings in Sberbank and proclaiming his moral superiority over Russians. If there is such an American in the US, I would find him funny and stupid, bordering on insanity. Look in the mirror - you will see your real enemy.:)


What a terrible story...

It is. Many businesses are going down the drain as we speak.

FatAndy
16-06-2015, 17:30
How do you know, you crawl them on the sly too, when other comrades don't see you?:)
I visit banderlog sites time to time, enemy must be known ;)


What, this video is a staged fake and not real?
I don't know, didn't see it personally.


I cannot imagine, say, an American living in the US, driving a Lada, having borsch and pelmeni for dinner every day, wearing an ushanka when it is cold, listening to Pugacheva, Kobzon and Gazmanov, flying regularly to Vorkuta resorts, keeping his life savings in Sberbank and proclaiming his moral superiority over Russians.
You're already in the process. Funny, yes.


Look in the mirror - you will see your real enemy.:)
How my pink good-natured well-fad face can be my enemy? Don't transfer your issues on me. ;)


Many businesses are going down the drain as we speak.
Insha alla.

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 18:06
I visit banderlog sites time to time, enemy must be known

So, in your FatAndy World, do you have any friends on the perimeter of the borders of your country?:) You seem to be encircled by enemies, now even the Chinese refuse to lend money.:) Life must be hard.:10293: My point about looking in the mirror was - maybe it is your own fault and imagination (and of the Russians like you)? Those who believe only they are D'Artanians and everybody else are stupid idiots and bitter enemies (which doesn't stop you from using their goods and services - I mean Europe and the US, primarily)? It all sounds like the Northern Korean paranoia. Wonder what sort of dreams you have at night and how often you wake up in cold sweat and tears.:)

FatAndy
16-06-2015, 20:28
My sleep is always healthy and tight. Accept my condolences for your "projection" ;)

Russian Lad
16-06-2015, 22:40
Ok, you didn't tell me about your enemies though, countries-wise. Can I see the list?:) And the friends' list too.:) Please don't include Cuba, China and India, obviously, they are just using Russia for their benefit since they realize they cannot be friends with the Russians like you, but they can use them by exploiting their fears, prejudices and premonitions.:) Hehe

nicklcool
16-06-2015, 23:07
they are just using Russia for their benefit Hehe

Just like Europe did in the nineties while RF was weak??

""After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, oil import prices to Ukraine reached world market levels in 1993. However, gas import prices and transit fees remained below European levels for Russian exports to Europe through pipelines in Ukraine; these were set in bilateral negotiations.[17] At the same time Ukraine remained the main transit corridor for Russia's gas export. In 2004–2005, 80% of Russian gas exports to the European Union were made through Ukrainian Territory.[18][19] Two-thirds of Gazprom's revenue comes from the sale of gas that crosses Ukraine.[20]""
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes

....and now that RF is stronger, and demanding market prices for oil and gas, the EU and the West are very, very upset! Coincidence?? :eh:

This fact alone can probably sum up at least 80% of the anger towards RF :mooooh:

FatAndy
16-06-2015, 23:14
Ok, you didn't tell me about your enemies though, countries-wise. Can I see the list?:)
No, it's military secret. :)


they can use them by exploiting their fears, prejudices and premonitions.:) Hehe
Ja, ja, das Realpolitik.

TolkoRaz
16-06-2015, 23:18
Ja, ja, das Realpolitik.

Ja, Ja - Das ist richtig! :10310:

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 01:29
and demanding market prices for oil and gas

I don't know for sure about gas, but can you really _demand_ market prices for oil (and gas prices are connected to oil prices in a certain way, as I understand)? The expression is sort of an oxymoron - to demand market prices. Russia has had a brilliant chance to really develop during the last 15 years while the oil prices have been booming. This chance has been totally squandered. I don't see it coming any time soon again. The age of lost golden opportunities is over. The reality is looming ahead.

Uncle Wally
17-06-2015, 11:44
Ok, you didn't tell me about your enemies though, countries-wise. Can I see the list?:) And the friends' list too.:) Please don't include Cuba, China and India, obviously, they are just using Russia for their benefit since they realize they cannot be friends with the Russians like you, but they can use them by exploiting their fears, prejudices and premonitions.:) Hehe



And what about the BRICS bank? The high speed rail lines?

Yes it's very terrible that all these countries are just using Russia. America only wants to be friends and would never do something in it's own interest. Like you right? That website your starting is just to help all the poor Russian girls find love.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 16:03
Well, Wally, the interest should be mutual and equally beneficial for both parties, then it works out well. Like in the case of my dating site, now I guess even you can see the demand for it will be immense, to put it mildly and modestly.:) Besides, it will be 100% free for the poor Russian girls, so it is a pure charity on my part as far as they are concerned.
But look, say, at Cuba. It goes to bed with the US as soon as Russia writes off a huge debt worth billions. China? Gets to use a huge chunk of the Russian territory and its resources, for the price that many experts claim is a clear rip off, while cleverly refusing to finance the Russian economy properly in order not to upset the Americans too much and/or really help Russia to become stronger. We used to court the Chinese before, it ended badly (ref.: Damansky Island, 1969), so I have a lot of doubts.
I don't see how the West "used" Russia so badly that there was a great need to bolt like that.


And what about the BRICS bank? The high speed rail lines?

BRICS - again, I don't see any substantial investments materializing, the Russian banks are complaining the Chinese banks are not lending how they were expected to. By the way, Turkey is becoming increasingly hostile, they have cancelled the scheduled negotiations with Gazprom, there are no explanations as to why: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/turciya-sryvaet-peregovory-s-gazpromom-po-tureckomu-potoku-1000680175
The high speed train - let's see if it materializes and if it is not just some sort of a somescreen or a rip-off.

Uncle Wally
17-06-2015, 16:46
Well, Wally, the interest should be mutual and equally beneficial for both parties, then it works out well. Like in the case of my dating site, now I guess even you can see the demand for it will be immense, to put it mildly and modestly.:) Besides, it will be 100% free for the poor Russian girls, so it is a pure charity on my part as far as they are concerned.
But look, say, at Cuba. It goes to bed with the US as soon as Russia writes off a huge debt worth billions. China? Gets to use a huge chunk of the Russian territory and its resources, for the price that many experts claim is a clear rip off, while cleverly refusing to finance the Russian economy properly in order not to upset the Americans too much and/or really help Russia to become stronger. We used to court the Chinese before, it ended badly (ref.: Damansky Island, 1969), so I have a lot of doubts.
I don't see how the West "used" Russia so badly that there was a great need to bolt like that.



BRICS - again, I don't see any substantial investments materializing, the Russian banks are complaining the Chinese banks are not lending how they were expected to. By the way, Turkey is becoming increasingly hostile, they have cancelled the scheduled negotiations with Gazprom, there are no explanations as to why: http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/turciya-sryvaet-peregovory-s-gazpromom-po-tureckomu-potoku-1000680175
The high speed train - let's see if it materializes and if it is not just some sort of a somescreen or a rip-off.


Let the Chinese develop Russian lands, good for Russia. The Chinese need a rail link more than Russia but since it will be on Russian land again good for Russia.



Have you ever thought of why countries may change their minds about Russia? It couldn't be threats by America could it? We all know America never threatened anyone, right? America is so pure and kind that even you want to become her slave. Wake up Mr. Bizzness man! America is hell bent on taking over the world and installing a fascist control.

penka
17-06-2015, 16:48
I read your other post before this one and now I know I was right. Just passing gas.


In the US they sell out dated food.

Here no it not wrapped but brought out in a shopping cart. If you understood that the dates on food are "best before" the food is still good.

Not only in the US. In Sthlm they are opening a grocery store for the poor that will sell food that passed "the best before" date.

Original here: http://www.dn.se/sthlm/stockholm-oppnar-mataffar-for-fattiga/

Sweden is not a poor country - check the GDP. Taxes are high, VAT is 25%, including on groceries (as of the last election), pensioners and benefits-takers pay taxes as well.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 16:49
Wake up Mr. Bizzness man! America is hell bent on taking over the world and installing a fascist control.

There-there, Wally, chill out a bit, no need to get so excited. America is pure evil, I got it. :coffee: Have some more vodka with Champaign.

FatAndy
17-06-2015, 16:53
Russian banks are complaining the Chinese banks are not lending how they were expected to.
Wow, you've finally managed to read not only that noisy header, but the article itself!:10220: Congratulations, comrade, it took less than 2 days only. :)
My experience with PRC-based companies shows they're bureaucratised even more than ours and have a big inertia. Also, over expectations from our banks also may exist ;)

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 17:11
Wow, you've finally managed to read not only that noisy header, but the article itself! Congratulations, comrade, it took less than 2 days only.

Why, I read the article too initially. If you don't like the title, complain to their editorial board, they may change it to suit your taste. Inertia? It has been a year now this has been going on.

nicklcool
17-06-2015, 17:24
I don't know for sure about gas, but can you really _demand_ market prices for oil (and gas prices are connected to oil prices in a certain way, as I understand)? The expression is sort of an oxymoron - to demand market prices. Russia has had a brilliant chance to really develop during the last 15 years while the oil prices have been booming. This chance has been totally squandered. I don't see it coming any time soon again. The age of lost golden opportunities is over. The reality is looming ahead.


OK, OK, semantics, but instead of 'demand' I should have wrote "fetch" or "offer" or something like that.

The point of my post is that many Russians feel that the West abused them while they were down in the nineties, buying up their natural resources at bargain-barrel prices, and so now they have little reason to believe that benevolence is the driver of the West's actions on Ukraine. To them the sanctions probably look more like payback for removing discounts on natural resources for Ukraine and the EU - which is why by and large they are not turning against their government.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 17:26
the West abused them while they were down in the nineties, buying up their natural resources at bargain-barrel prices

How did that happen? I am not sure I understand what you mean, oil prices were the same for everyone, no? Many Russian oil tycoons emerged during the nineties, I don't remember them complaining the West ripped them off. It helped them become billionaires. I don't know a lot about gas, there is a rather complicated system of price calculation that involves the oil prices as well, as I understand. But no one can force Russia to deliver its gas actually.

nicklcool
17-06-2015, 17:34
How did that happen? I am not sure I understand what you mean, oil prices were the same for everyone, no? Many Russian oil tycoons emerged during the nineties, I don't remember them complaining the West ripped them off. It helped them become billionaires.

This is an oft-repeated meme I hear from my Russian friends/family/colleagues. That Wikipedia link on the Ukraine crisis is the best I could find for evidence in the short time I dedicated to research - I think it mentioned reduced transit fees, etc. If this idea is a complete falsehood the Russians have done almost as good a job of convincing their people this lie is true, as USA has done convincing Americans that gay marriage is OK, natural, and should be legalized :jawdrop:

Nobbynumbnuts
17-06-2015, 17:42
OK, OK, semantics, but instead of 'demand' I should have wrote "fetch" or "offer" or something like that.

The point of my post is that many Russians feel that the West abused them while they were down in the nineties, buying up their natural resources at bargain-barrel prices, and so now they have little reason to believe that benevolence is the driver of the West's actions on Ukraine. To them the sanctions probably look more like payback for removing discounts on natural resources for Ukraine and the EU - which is why by and large they are not turning against their government.

The west actually helped Russia in the 90's with financial support and food aid. Short memories some people have.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 17:42
This is an oft-repeated meme I hear from my Russian friends/family/colleagues.

Many of them are just programmed androids eager to spew blind hatred at the West - what is astonishing, while enjoying using mostly Western goods and services. :coffee: So, yes, do your own research.:)

FatAndy
17-06-2015, 17:46
Many of them are just programmed androids
:agree:

nicklcool
17-06-2015, 17:48
The west actually helped Russia in the 90's with financial support and food aid. Short memories some people have.

LOL, this was my retort when the topic came up while I was studying and working in Russia in the mid-late 2000s. I also reminded my friends that Americans had more freedom, and they strongly disagreed, to which I laughed smugly and replied yea, sure.

...And then taxes and PC Speech codes and Cell Phone monitoring and forever growing federal government spending and Snowden all smacked me in the back of the head. At least it brought me to my senses!! :10220:

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 17:53
as USA has done convincing Americans that gay marriage is OK, natural, and should be legalized

Gay marriage, I am neutral to this topic, I tend to think that legalizing gay marriages was a stretch though. However, this gay agenda was used in Russia merely to program the androids here a bit more, the code going along the lines "Look, they may be richer, but we are more spiritual". Which is a capital BS. Not that many of your Russian friends and colleagues realize that - that they are being used and their brains are being tinkered with. I realized it myself only a year and a half ago, initially it started as some sound doubts, it took me months to figure this sh't out. The rabbit hole is very deep.


...And then taxes and PC Speech codes and Cell Phone monitoring and forever growing federal government spending and Snowden all smacked me in the back of the head. At least it brought me to my senses!!

Because of 9/11 and other threats. However, Americans do have way more freedom, you are not arrested for demonstrating in the street (if and when it is peaceful at least), you are allowed to own firearms, etc. There is a very long list.

Fantastika
17-06-2015, 20:13
....and now that RF is stronger, and demanding market prices for oil and gas, the EU and the West are very, very upset! Coincidence?? :eh:

This fact alone can probably sum up at least 80% of the anger towards RF :mooooh:

Natural Gas is a commodity, I think. Everybody pays the same price. But Russia was giving Ukraine a subsidy, selling at half-price, mainly because of close economic relationship. When the Nuland-Porky-Arsonist government took over in Kiev, the subsidy ended, and like a welfare queen denied her "free money," Kiev went crazy. Instead of finding a job, and working to make money, Kiev prefers to blame Russia for their laziness and woes, and to purchase weapons using borrowed money, instead of providing for the economy.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-06-2015, 20:47
LOL, this was my retort when the topic came up while I was studying and working in Russia in the mid-late 2000s. I also reminded my friends that Americans had more freedom, and they strongly disagreed, to which I laughed smugly and replied yea, sure.

...And then taxes and PC Speech codes and Cell Phone monitoring and forever growing federal government spending and Snowden all smacked me in the back of the head. At least it brought me to my senses!! :10220:

Well, should the need arise and Russia was needing help again, might be better to refuse next time..

Fantastika
17-06-2015, 20:56
Gay marriage, I am neutral to this topic...

Gay marriage? That's yesterday. Speaking about homosexuals is hate speech, and a baker refusing to bake a cake for a gay couple is guilty of discrimination.

Today it's Transgender and Transracial. White privilege. The Progressives are busily rewriting the anti-discrimination laws to include trans-gender people.

The attacks on the family and the church continue, the disintegration of USSA accelerates. Why do we need all those trigger-happy cops? Because that's the easiest way to contain the spreading social chaos. Ha-ha, now the Progressives are demanding cops stop arresting innocent black children, so crime is skyrocketing in the big cities.

The American media is trans-truth. Now, someone please tell me, how can we remain a cohesive society when the TV, when the media does not recognize objective truth?


Because of 9/11 and other threats. However, Americans do have way more freedom, you are not arrested for demonstrating in the street (if and when it is peaceful at least), you are allowed to own firearms, etc. There is a very long list.

Who is going to politically oppose the regime? Who wants to get an IRS audit?

You're a decade too late. America is no longer that shining beacon on the hill, the land of liberty. We are monitored, taxed, regulated by bureaucrats from birth to death. We are eyeballed, spied on, droned, dogged, tracked and followed twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. Our computers are spied on from server, host and cloud. All phones are continually tapped for metadata and use of key words in NSA audio eavesdropping triggers an investigation. Every time we enter or exit a building, use an elevator, every time we use a cell-phone or landline, every use of a Bankomat, every transaction with a credit or debit card, another tracking record is entered in another database.

We can own firearms? Not when their use is so tightly regulated, it is impossible to own one and not be a criminal. You may have to get a license from the local government, which does not grant a license unless you have a "good reason" to want to own a gun. There may be a long "waiting period" before you are allowed to complete a purchase. There are many categories of people who are outright not allowed to own guns.

The government also bans certain types of guns, and modified guns. For example, owned a sawed-off shotgun with a barrel length of 22" is legal, but a barrel length of 21" is a felony. Sanctions provided a handy excuse to ban import of AK-47's.

Also, the government here tried to ban ammunition, making guns useless. It made regulations that would have outlawed all previous ammunition, that mandated that ammunition must contain a certain percentage of copper or nickel, which would have made all owners of previous lead-metal ammo criminals.

There are 1001 ways for the bureaucrats to effectively ban guns while they claim they are not violating our 2nd-amendment rights.

Your "very long list" of freedoms - the right to own a gun, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, is quickly disappearing.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 21:57
Your "very long list" of freedoms - the right to own a gun, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, is quickly disappearing.

I am not saying you are "a beacon on the hill" or some such thing, all I am saying you have way more freedoms than we do here. It is not like I am dreaming of living in the US, though I would not mind going there if offered a ?00000+ yearly remuneration. Doubt I am going to get an invitation any time soon.:) It is all relative. And an average American is richer than an average Russian. Which, of course, is also relative. There are over 20 million Russians (out of 150 million) below the official poverty line, which is 10K rubles per month (200 dollars! - and most goods cost either the same or are even more expensive).
After all, we all are just mere mortals who will be feeding worms under the ground sooner or later, so there is no 100% perfect place on the earth, only under it, objectively speaking. In this respect, we are nothing but a walking compost, so there is no vital need to be clamorous for perfect conditions, Mother Nature will take care of us all the proper way, sooner or later.:)

nicklcool
17-06-2015, 22:26
I am not saying you are "a beacon on the hill" or some such thing, all I am saying you have way more freedoms than we do here. It is not like I am dreaming of living in the US, though I would not mind going there if offered a ?00000+ yearly remuneration. Doubt I am going to get an invitation any time soon.:) It is all relative. And an average American is richer than an average Russian. Which, of course, is also relative. There are over 20 million Russians (out of 150 million) below the official poverty line, which is 10K rubles per month (200 dollars! - and most goods cost either the same or are even more expensive).
After all, we all are just mere mortals who will be feeding worms under the ground sooner or later, so there is no 100% perfect place on the earth, only under it, objectively speaking. In this respect, we are nothing but a walking compost, so there is no vital need to be clamorous for perfect conditions, Mother Nature will take care of us all the proper way, sooner or later.:)


:thumbsup: You went the exact route I was thinking of, RL. The reason we compare countries (esp. USSA & RF) is that there really is no utopia on this planet, so we're trying to find the country that's closest to getting it right!

I will make one correction -- are you sure you "would not mind going there if offered a ?00000+ yearly remuneration"?? Because I don't think you're aware of how many zeroes will fall off your annual salary after state, local, federal, and Obamacare taxes!

And that's why IMHO RF is winning this economic battle. Every country will have its poor and its assaults on rights, but how does it tax its people?? Given that we waste our most valuable resource - our time - on working to earn money, how much of that earned money gets taxed = how much of our liberty is taken away.

The social morals and government policies of USSA (h/t Fantastika) point to the need to raise taxes more and more in the near future (Social Security is predicted to go bankrupt in twenty years and we're discussing whether fossil fuels will lose their dominance in twenty to thirty!), whereas in RF I do not see such irresponsible promises being made to the citizens that will ultimately bankrupt the country. :book:

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 22:34
I will make one correction -- are you sure you "would not mind going there if offered a ?00000+ yearly remuneration"?? Because I don't think you're aware of how many zeroes will fall off your annual salary after state, local, federal, and Obamacare taxes!

Test me and make an offer.:)


And that's why IMHO RF is winning this economic battle.

In order to have a battle, you need two more or less equal contestants, Russia doesn't qualify, from the economic standpoint (again, maybe you didn't read what Ulukaev said? or you assume you know more about Russia's economic development than Russia's minister of economic development?). China, that's another piece of cake, let's see how that pans out.

Uncle Wally
17-06-2015, 22:45
Gay marriage, I am neutral to this topic, I tend to think that legalizing gay marriages was a stretch though. However, this gay agenda was used in Russia merely to program the androids here a bit more, the code going along the lines "Look, they may be richer, but we are more spiritual". Which is a capital BS. Not that many of your Russian friends and colleagues realize that - that they are being used and their brains are being tinkered with. I realized it myself only a year and a half ago, initially it started as some sound doubts, it took me months to figure this sh't out. The rabbit hole is very deep.



Because of 9/11 and other threats. However, Americans do have way more freedom, you are not arrested for demonstrating in the street (if and when it is peaceful at least), you are allowed to own firearms, etc. There is a very long list.




Yes and that "long list" is becoming shorter and shorter. Like corruption in America is much more sophisticate so is how they discredit protesters. You can still have free speech but then you are also put on a list. Freedom is slowly giving way to fascism.

Russian Lad
17-06-2015, 22:48
Yes and that "long list" is becoming shorter and shorter. Like corruption in America is much more sophisticate so is how they discredit protesters. You can still have free speech but then you are also put on a list. Freedom is slowly giving way to fascism.

Ok, but I find it strange that you are fighting for American economic and civil liberties in Russia. Go fight for your American rights where the "battlefield" is located - in the US.:) And let me do the same here - for my Russian rights. Roll over, it is my sandbox.
In other words, maybe it is happening in the US because the country's best men like you are scattered all over the planet instead of stepping up a meaningful civil rights movement at home. Hehe. Got you on that one.

Uncle Wally
17-06-2015, 23:32
Ok, but I find it strange that you are fighting for American economic and civil liberties in Russia. Go fight for your American rights where the battlefield is located - in the US.:) And let me do the same here - for my Russian rights. Roll over, it is my sandbox.
In other words, maybe it is happening in the US because the country's best men like you are scattered all over the planet instead of stepping up a meaningful civil rights resistance at home. Hehe. Got you on that one.


Ok I'll give you that one but I have always said that it's not right for non Russians to say bad things about Russia or tell them what to do or how to feel. I just think you are wrong on many things.


Sorry I got guest now, I get back to you.

Fantastika
17-06-2015, 23:33
Ok, but I find it strange that you are fighting for American economic and civil liberties in Russia. Go fight for your American rights where the "battlefield" is located - in the US.:) And let me do the same here - for my Russian rights. Roll over, it is my sandbox.
In other words, maybe it is happening in the US because the country's best men like you are scattered all over the planet instead of stepping up a meaningful civil rights movement at home. Hehe. Got you on that one.

This is true; after Alex. Solzhenitsyn found sanctuary in the US, the media lost interest in him and his cause. Living in Russia, his struggles had captivated the media worldwide, and the press adored him. They campaigned incessantly for his freedom, and when Russia granted it, well, another case of "Be careful what you wish for..." then he became just another retired guy.