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Uncle Wally
15-11-2014, 01:19
Putin Is Hoarding Gold and Rattling Sabers--What’s He Up to Now?

The Russian government has spent the last few days giving the world a lot more to worry about. From moving more tanks into Ukraine, to transferring nuclear weapons-capable units to Crimea, to announcing that it will start flying long-range bombers over the Gulf of Mexico, the Kremlin hasn’t exactly been a stabilizing force in global affairs for the past few days.

Then, there’s this: It turns out that in addition to invading neighbors and taking an increasingly belligerent global posture, the Russian government has been stockpiling gold. Lots and lots of gold.

Related: Russia Seen ‘In Denial’ as Economy Stagnates

The World Gold Council, which tracks demand for the metal, said in its report for the third quarter of 2014 that the Russian central bank accounted for more than half of the gold purchased by central banks in the three months ending with September.

Since this time last year, Russia has increased its total gold holdings by 25 percent, meaning its gold reserve is now the fifth largest in the world. Its holdings have tripled in the past decade


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-hoarding-gold-rattling-sabers-113000939.html

Armoured
15-11-2014, 04:59
Well, buying gold sure seems to have helped the ruble.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-11-2014, 14:40
Saw a report yesterday about how many governments sold a lot of their gold during the financial crisis when the price was quite high.
Gold is well of it's highs now so perhaps the CBR is on to something? ;)

Yaks
15-11-2014, 14:52
well it means they are buying while the price is falling using up USD income from oil (that would have been rising) to buy something that has dropped significantly in the last 2 months. Not really a smart play.

Nobbynumbnuts
15-11-2014, 16:37
well it means they are buying while the price is falling using up USD income from oil (that would have been rising) to buy something that has dropped significantly in the last 2 months. Not really a smart play.

It's called buying low and selling high. Obviously the irony got lost somewhere.......:p

Yaks
15-11-2014, 17:01
It's called buying low and selling high. Obviously the irony got lost somewhere.......:p

except it is the opposite. They are buying high and holding onto something dropping while swapping out of something that is rising. They have lost 10% on their investment in just 1 quarter plus missed out on a rising dollar. irony indeed.

fenrir
15-11-2014, 17:15
except it is the opposite. They are buying high and holding onto something dropping while swapping out of something that is rising. They have lost 10% on their investment in just 1 quarter plus missed out on a rising dollar. irony indeed.

But according to some on this site, the euro and dollar are doomed and the ruble will become a reserve currency!!!

Nobbynumbnuts
15-11-2014, 17:25
except it is the opposite. They are buying high and holding onto something dropping while swapping out of something that is rising. They have lost 10% on their investment in just 1 quarter plus missed out on a rising dollar. irony indeed.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed. Gold is high? You know that for a fact?
It's impossible to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, simply because no one knows when it gets there.........no one except an expert with the benefit of hindsight of course. ;)
If the CBR averages out it's buying and selling they have less chance of being caught out in a big way by the market. Taking a long term view, short term swings are not really a concern.

Oh, and they haven't lost anything now unless they sell today.

So, the million dollar question. Where will the dollar and gold be at the end of the next quarter maestro? :D

Carl
15-11-2014, 19:22
But according to some on this site, the euro and dollar are doomed and the ruble will become a reserve currency!!!

Well, of course. Didn't you hear..? The Ruble is KING!! :rofl::rofl:

Uncle Wally
16-11-2014, 00:27
Well, of course. Didn't you hear..? The Ruble is KING!! :rofl::rofl:



Ok smart a$$ tell me this.

If you are plannng to go to war with a country would you be saving up their money? No, you wouldn't you'd get a hold of something anybody would take for what you need, which would be GOLD, or silver or oil. Pieces of parper in war time are just for wiping your ass.


You and the rest must be too old or too stupid.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 00:41
.......You and the rest must be too old or too stupid.

Probably a bit of both Wally......................time for a youtube clip me thinks! :p

Uncle Wally
16-11-2014, 00:50
Probably a bit of both Wally......................time for a youtube clip me thinks! :p


Well yeah if you live in girls with dicks land you can joke about it but I am sorry I care about life on this planet.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 02:20
Well yeah if you live in girls with dicks land you can joke about it but I am sorry I care about life on this planet.

Yes Wally, i'm sure your a very caring individual. Now, how about that vid from youtube? Preferably a cartoon if you can find one! :D

Yaks
16-11-2014, 03:03
Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed. Gold is high? You know that for a fact?
It's impossible to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, simply because no one knows when it gets there.........no one except an expert with the benefit of hindsight of course. ;)
If the CBR averages out it's buying and selling they have less chance of being caught out in a big way by the market. Taking a long term view, short term swings are not really a concern.

Oh, and they haven't lost anything now unless they sell today.

So, the million dollar question. Where will the dollar and gold be at the end of the next quarter maestro? :D

Wally already took a bet against me and lost out big. Are you a gambling man?

Yaks
16-11-2014, 03:08
and they do lose out as it comes to total reserves and the amount has dropped on gold 10%. Russia only has finite reserves and burned through quite a bit trying to support the ruble-plus requires almost 200 billion to support the Russian banks, halving what they have. So using up their dollar income from oil to buy gold which is falling is limiting their options and is a classic case of opportunity risk-missing out on dollars increasing to buy gold which is decreasing-and if they try to sell the gold it will drop the price further, losing more. it is simply a case of nationalism over economic sense.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 03:34
Wally already took a bet against me and lost out big. Are you a gambling man?

No i'm not and i don't think the CBR is either.
You didn't answer the question. Where will the dollar and gold be at the end of the next quarter? Little harder without the benefit of hindsight, is it? ;)

Russian Lad
16-11-2014, 04:08
Wally, wonder if Benedikt will share your enthusiasm. I told him to sell all his rubles immediately (I assume he has a little private fund for his retirement days) and buy Euro when Euro was 42 rubles, just some months ago. Let's say he has 10 million rubles - it may be (much) more, it may be less, but I am sure it is not a very small amount. It would give him 238 thousand Euro and he could sell them right now for 59 each - 14 million rubles.
4 million rubles difference - that's an apartment, a great car, or just some years of modest and content living. Ben, you should have listened. Especially if you have stashed away more than that... How does it feel, paying for being stubborn?:)
Wally, you have put your stakes on a lame horse, it is losing as we speak - and it is just the beginning of a very shameful trip of this country (I cannot call it my country anymore actually because I lived in a different one and want it back) to the gutter. Better switch to Whiskey or to girls. Since you spend a lot of time here, I assume many young, voluptuous girls have been left unattended. Drum yourself into oblivion.

Ben, you could be driving me in Thailand in this, I was offering to you this present but you refused:
Testdrive BMW X5 xDRIVE30d M Sport - YouTube

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 04:24
and they do lose out as it comes to total reserves and the amount has dropped on gold 10%. Russia only has finite reserves and burned through quite a bit trying to support the ruble-plus requires almost 200 billion to support the Russian banks, halving what they have. So using up their dollar income from oil to buy gold which is falling is limiting their options and is a classic case of opportunity risk-missing out on dollars increasing to buy gold which is decreasing-and if they try to sell the gold it will drop the price further, losing more. it is simply a case of nationalism over economic sense.


and you missed the other irony. Russia sold gold during the financial crisis when the price was high to help raise badly needed cash. They are buying now when the price is much lower. If CBR is buying gold as a hedge therefore admitting the economy is vulnerable, that'd be ironic considering all their rhetoric. Anyway, might just turn out to be good move should there be another crisis. ;)

If they are buying gold now and that doesn't increase the price (by your own admission it's falling) selling at the same volume (market conditions) should also have the same limited effect on price.
Also as i told you, averaging out buying and selling helps to prevent the market moving against you.

I'll ask you again, tell us precisely where gold and the dollar will be at the end of the next quarter. I assume as you know exactly you'll be loading up (or down) and making yourself yet another fortune. Oh and please be generous enough to inform the CBR as well! :D

Yaks
16-11-2014, 05:09
No i'm not and i don't think the CBR is either.
You didn't answer the question. Where will the dollar and gold be at the end of the next quarter? Little harder without the benefit of hindsight, is it? ;)

already did that for this quarter with wally. only worth doing again if you'll throw your hat in the race too.

Uncle Wally
16-11-2014, 08:24
Russia is buying gold because they are planning for war.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 10:56
already did that for this quarter with wally. only worth doing again if you'll throw your hat in the race too.

You know exactly when to buy and sell gold and you went on to make a fortune out of Wally??

You've surpassed yourself again posting complete and utter nonesense! Yaketyak, investor of the year! :rofl:

TolkoRaz
16-11-2014, 11:14
Russia is buying gold because they are planning for war.

This is looking likely, although I would write that the RF is preparing for war / conflict, but is not planning for War / Conflict.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 11:19
Russia is buying gold because they are planning for war.

Your consideration for the planet astounds me.
Have you ever considered teaming up with Yak and forming a double act? :D

Carl
16-11-2014, 11:31
Ok smart a$$ tell me this.

If you are plannng to go to war with a country would you be saving up their money? No, you wouldn't you'd get a hold of something anybody would take for what you need, which would be GOLD, or silver or oil. Pieces of parper in war time are just for wiping your ass.


You and the rest must be too old or too stupid.

Wait what? Who's going to war!?:eek:
Are you referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Carl
16-11-2014, 11:34
Ok smart a$$ tell me this.

If you are plannng to go to war with a country would you be saving up their money? No, you wouldn't you'd get a hold of something anybody would take for what you need, which would be GOLD, or silver or oil. Pieces of parper in war time are just for wiping your ass.


You and the rest must be too old or too stupid.

So,..now you're saying the Ruble is not KING..??:mooooh::eh:
Make up your mind Willy!!

Yaks
16-11-2014, 13:25
You know exactly when to buy and sell gold and you went on to make a fortune out of Wally??

You've surpassed yourself again posting complete and utter nonesense! Yaketyak, investor of the year! :rofl:

Well all I do is trade these days and certainly do okay. Plus we still own more than half a million dollars in physical gold-accumulated since the 1860s-that's just the rainy day fund. with almost every male member of my family involved in gold mining since that time(and plenty of them dead in the pursuit of it.) So yeah I follow gold rather closely.

And no, Wally predicted the price of oil and gold and challenged me like you have. I won he lost.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 14:03
Well all I do is trade these days and certainly do okay. Plus we still own more than half a million dollars in physical gold-accumulated since the 1860s-that's just the rainy day fund. with almost every male member of my family involved in gold mining since that time(and plenty of them dead in the pursuit of it.) So yeah I follow gold rather closely.

And no, Wally predicted the price of oil and gold and challenged me like you have. I won he lost.

You criticised the CBR for being foolish for buying gold when it did, simply for the proposterous reason that if they'd have bought a short time later they'd have saved money.
I all ready told you, no one knows what the price of gold will be tomorrow, next month or next year. To claim you do is arrogant nonsense.
I'm not in the predicting game but since you claim to be, step up to the mark and give us all precise numbers. But remember if I could buy gold at anytime after that at cheaper price I will be calling you a fool as well.

I don't believe you are or ever have been in the gold business, if you were you wouldn't make such ridiculous claims. ;)

Yaks
16-11-2014, 15:25
You criticised the CBR for being foolish for buying gold when it did, simply for the proposterous reason that if they'd have bought a short time later they'd have saved money.
I all ready told you, no one knows what the price of gold will be tomorrow, next month or next year. To claim you do is arrogant nonsense.
I'm not in the predicting game but since you claim to be, step up to the mark and give us all precise numbers. But remember if I could buy gold at anytime after that at cheaper price I will be calling you a fool as well.

I don't believe you are or ever have been in the gold business, if you were you wouldn't make such ridiculous claims. ;)

because you're trolling. I have been talking about gold since I came on this forum rather consistently. I was working as an assistant driller in 2007. My father ran gold mines in Papua New Guinea and set up the Lihir gold mine. He was born in the gold town of Mount Morgan. My grandfather and Uncle worked the Ditmar gold mine before Mount Morgan. My great grandfather worked and died working the Croydon gold mine. My great uncle George was on Lasseter's expedition and was a co-director of CAGE(Central Australian Gold Exploration) company as well as Arnhem gold and was murdered in the desert while hunting for gold. My great Uncle Charles http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Prod/Parlment/Members.nsf/6ec131612f24824cca256ce70004b1b2/c0c05ea0cdd3c2d0ca256e2900830583?OpenDocument

was a gold, silver and tin miner as well as the founder of what later became the CFMEU-one of the largest unions in Australia:
http://cfmeu.com.au/

With 13 of my family buried due to gold mining and others suffering health effects, and since I have been panning and prospecting for gold since the age of 3-yes I have earnt the right to say I know something about it. And I raise my middle finger to anyone who accuses me of lying about it too.

Russian Lad
16-11-2014, 15:46
This is looking likely, although I would write that the RF is preparing for war / conflict

This would be like committing suicide. Doubt he is ready for this, but who knows, the current Russian policies are nothing short of being suicidal anyway. Sorry if it means you will earn less cash because more people will stay alive.

Nobbynumbnuts
16-11-2014, 16:32
because you're trolling. I have been talking about gold since I came on this forum rather consistently. I was working as an assistant driller in 2007. My father ran gold mines in Papua New Guinea and set up the Lihir gold mine. He was born in the gold town of Mount Morgan. My grandfather and Uncle worked the Ditmar gold mine before Mount Morgan. My great grandfather worked and died working the Croydon gold mine. My great uncle George was on Lasseter's expedition and was a co-director of CAGE(Central Australian Gold Exploration) company as well as Arnhem gold and was murdered in the desert while hunting for gold. My great Uncle Charles http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Prod/Parlment/Members.nsf/6ec131612f24824cca256ce70004b1b2/c0c05ea0cdd3c2d0ca256e2900830583?OpenDocument

was a gold, silver and tin miner as well as the founder of what later became the CFMEU-one of the largest unions in Australia:
http://cfmeu.com.au/

With 13 of my family buried due to gold mining and others suffering health effects, and since I have been panning and prospecting for gold since the age of 3-yes I have earnt the right to say I know something about it. And I raise my middle finger to anyone who accuses me of lying about it too.

Amazing then how someone who has 'gold in their blood' can be such a complete numbscull when discussing it!
Still, you can always console yourself with the fact you seem to be completely au fait with the finer points of the blow hole business ;):D

Yaks
16-11-2014, 16:35
the troll is on ignore.

JanC
16-11-2014, 16:37
We can do that? Don't tell me I've been overlooking that ignore button I've been looking for.

Nobbynumbnuts
17-11-2014, 11:34
I think we need a 'Blowhole' button too! :D

FatAndy
17-11-2014, 12:57
This is looking likely, although I would write that the RF is preparing for war / conflict, but is not planning for War / Conflict.
Unexpectedly! :coffee:


We can do that? Don't tell me I've been overlooking that ignore button I've been looking for.
Anyone besides mods :10220: can do that.

Upper left corner "User CP" (control panel) -> "Edit Ignore list" -> enter username to ignore -> press Okay.

Fast link - http://www.expat.ru/forum/profile.php?do=ignorelist

Uncle Wally
17-11-2014, 13:20
This is looking likely, although I would write that the RF is preparing for war / conflict, but is not planning for War / Conflict.




Thank you for clearing that up, but yes that is what I meant to say.


Also so funny that with Russia and China buying so much gold the price doesn't go up.

FatAndy
17-11-2014, 13:26
Some off-topic was moved there: http://www.expat.ru/forum/showthread.php?t=634772

Talk about the damned metal, comrades ;)

Judge
18-11-2014, 08:26
Putin Is Hoarding Gold and Rattling Sabers--What’s He Up to Now?



Looks like Putin isn't alone....the ECB might follow Russia's lead..

ECB could buy gold to revive economy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11235269/ECB-could-buy-gold-to-revive-economy.html

Judge
18-11-2014, 09:23
one of the comments from the link I posted above is interesting...wonder if there's any truth in it...



In 2012 Germany made the perfectly reasonable request to inspect the 300 tonnes of gold it owns that is supposed to be stored in, or rather under, the Federal Reserve Building in New York. The Federal Reserve refused this simple and reasonable request and after a lot of diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing the Germans demanded the return of their gold. The Fed could not refuse this request but told Germany it would take SEVEN YEARS to return the gold

After two years the Americans have managed to return just 5 tonnes of gold to Germany!

But then, suddenly, after more talks with the USA the German government have decided to leave the rest of the gold in New York saying "The Americans are taking good care of our gold”

Yaks
18-11-2014, 09:25
Looks like Putin isn't alone....the ECB might follow Russia's lead..

ECB could buy gold to revive economy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11235269/ECB-could-buy-gold-to-revive-economy.html

that basically says they are thinking of printing money and putting it into assets and shares of all types. A move that makes a fair amount of sense. their situation is quite different to Russia- Russia needs US dollar income from oil to balance the budget and as a reserve-buying falling gold by using up US dollars is unwise. (Plenty of central banks have done unwise things-such as the UK and Australia selling off their gold reserves when the market was at its bottom before its decade long rise. They make mistakes.)

Eurozone can support its debt and obligations as long as Germany keeps going and needs quantitive easing to do it-just like America. It needs to devalue its currency to export out of its problems and make euro nominated debt cheaper. Russia doesn't really export anything except its raw resources that are priced in US dollars, so to devalue the currency only makes imports dearer and is counter productive(plus US nominated debt more expensive to repay.)

Judge
18-11-2014, 09:34
Ok, found a couple of articles about Germany's gold..
http://www.mining.com/germans-begin-to-demand-their-gold-back-after-new-york-federal-reserve-rebuffs-access-requests-52759/


http://www.mining.com/bubba-explains-why-the-us-only-gave-germany-back-5-tonnes-of-its-gold-73709/

Germany has a lot of gold stashed away for a rainy day,they are in 2nd place, the 1st is the US..nice of the US to keep Germany's gold safe and sound..

Judge
18-11-2014, 10:07
that basically says they are thinking of printing money and putting it into assets and shares of all types.

You're right,
ECB said they could pump a trillion euros to try and help their faltering economy ...



A move that makes a fair amount of sense. their situation is quite different to Russia-
Like with many things, there will be a negative impact with what they will do..it's like they are throwing more money at the problem..


Russia needs US dollar income from oil to balance the budget and as a reserve-buying falling gold by using up US dollars is unwise. (Plenty of central banks have done unwise things-such as the UK and Australia selling off their gold reserves when the market was at its bottom before its decade long rise. They make mistakes.)
Only time will tell, Russia getting rid of $$$$ for gold,it's not like they are giving away all their $$$$


Eurozone can support its debt and obligations as long as Germany keeps going and needs quantitive easing to do it-just like America. It needs to devalue its currency to export out of its problems and make euro nominated debt cheaper. Russia doesn't really export anything except its raw resources that are priced in US dollars, so to devalue the currency only makes imports dearer and is counter productive(plus US nominated debt more expensive to repay.)


The German economy is not in the best of shapes right now,their export to Russia is way down,costing them billions....Russia exports something that countries need 'must have',the Germans export expensive goods, like Italy,France, if one of your main customers stops buying, for sure it will hurt...

Yaks
18-11-2014, 12:17
You're right,
ECB said they could pump a trillion euros to try and help their faltering economy ...



Like with many things, there will be a negative impact with what they will do..it's like they are throwing more money at the problem..


Only time will tell, Russia getting rid of $$$$ for gold,it's not like they are giving away all their $$$$



The German economy is not in the best of shapes right now,their export to Russia is way down,costing them billions....Russia exports something that countries need 'must have',the Germans export expensive goods, like Italy,France, if one of your main customers stops buying, for sure it will hurt...

russia is not giving away all their dollars but need dollars in reserve- of just over 400 billion they have the russian banks need about 170 billion. they need that in US dollars to pay debts, not gold. so purchasing more gold at the expense of rising dollars gives less wiggle room.

as for german exports, the euro is effectively a rebranded deutschmark. It is all Germany but having the eurozone with the weaker countries weakens the currency making germany more competitive. plus it can use it banks to lend to the poorer european states for them to use that money to buy german goods too. it is a 100% deal in favour of germany. a weaker euro only helps germany export more so it is in their interest to pump out money-it is just the german people are terrified of inflation(just as russians are terrified of the 1990s) and so it is harder to do it politically. but they must.

and is has been a huge success for the US in printing money- US stocks are at record highs, company profits are solid, consecutive growth over the last7 years, exports up 33% and unemployment is just over 6%. now there is an adjustment with the dollar beginning to rise but in a controlled way.

Uncle Wally
18-11-2014, 12:39
Here's what QE did for Japan,


Japan Slips Back Into Recession

On Oct. 31, Kuroda announced the central bank would step up its asset purchases, accelerating Japan's "quantitative easing" just as the U.S. was ending its own asset purchases. Despite that surprise move, Kuroda has insisted that the economy is still in the midst of a "moderate recovery.





TOKYO (AP) — Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter as housing and business investment declined following a tax hike, dragging the country into a recession and further clouding the outlook for the global economy.

The world's third-largest economy contracted at a 1.6 percent pace in the July-September quarter, the government said Monday, contrary to predictions it would grow after a big drop the previous quarter. The surprise deepens uncertainty when China's growth is slowing and the 18-country eurozone grew only 0.2 percent in the same quarter.

The gross domestic product figures showed across-the-board weakness in demand among consumers, manufacturers and builders. Many individuals and companies had spent money before the sales tax was hiked in April from 5 percent to 8 percent, and spending has languished since then.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/17/japan-recession-economy-contracts_n_6170804.html

Armoured
18-11-2014, 12:45
Here's what QE did for Japan,

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter as housing and business investment declined following a tax hike, dragging the country into a recession and further clouding the outlook for the global economy.

Do you actually read the stuff you post? Do you try to understand it?

As virtually _every_ article out there says: it's not the QE, but the tax hike - which is a move directly opposed to and in contradiciton with QE.

Bank of Japan is stepping on the gas, and the government decided to hit the brakes. It's the brakes that slowed things down, not the engine.

JanC
18-11-2014, 12:48
Do you actually read the stuff you post? Do you try to understand it?

All he does is scan for specific patterns which, at a glance, appear to agree with his arbitrary notions. The underlying mechanisms aren't given a single thought.

Nobbynumbnuts
18-11-2014, 12:52
All he does is scan for specific patterns which, at a glance, appear to agree with his arbitrary notions. The underlying mechanisms aren't given a single thought.

...done between searching youtube for a nice cartoon clip! ;)

Uncle Wally
18-11-2014, 12:53
Do you actually read the stuff you post? Do you try to understand it?

As virtually _every_ article out there says: it's not the QE, but the tax hike - which is a move directly opposed to and in contradiciton with QE.

Bank of Japan is stepping on the gas, and the government decided to hit the brakes. It's the brakes that slowed things down, not the engine.


Why did they need a tax hike?

JanC
18-11-2014, 12:55
Why did they need a tax hike?

Japan has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world.

Armoured
18-11-2014, 14:06
Why did they need a tax hike?

Please just read Krugman and save us the trouble.

But in short: they are stuck in a close-to-recession in and out economy for close to ten years. Every time they come close to getting out of the rut, some austerity goldbug nutbar screams 'inflation is going to go through the roof!'

So they bring in taxes or budget cuts and kill the recovery. Again and again.

If the economy takes off, you might get inflation (which Japan actually desperately needs), in which case new taxes/cuts might improve budget balance. (If they bring in taxes/cuts too late, budget balance won't be any worse than the starting point).

But (in Japan's specific case, does not apply everywhere) if you bring in new taxes/cuts too early, it kills the recovery and makes the economy _and_ government finances worse.

Uncle Wally
18-11-2014, 14:38
Please just read Krugman and save us the trouble.

But in short: they are stuck in a close-to-recession in and out economy for close to ten years. Every time they come close to getting out of the rut, some austerity goldbug nutbar screams 'inflation is going to go through the roof!'

So they bring in taxes or budget cuts and kill the recovery. Again and again.

If the economy takes off, you might get inflation (which Japan actually desperately needs), in which case new taxes/cuts might improve budget balance. (If they bring in taxes/cuts too late, budget balance won't be any worse than the starting point).

But (in Japan's specific case, does not apply everywhere) if you bring in new taxes/cuts too early, it kills the recovery and makes the economy _and_ government finances worse.


Balloons and banktsers need inflation, people don't, it's just another way to steal.

Austerity is a bad thing? Going into huge debt a good thing, again good for banktsers not good for people.

Armoured
18-11-2014, 14:44
Balloons and banktsers need inflation, people don't, it's just another way to steal.

Austerity is a bad thing? Going into huge debt a good thing, again good for banktsers not good for people.

Good slogans. Entirely meaningless, of course. Economics is not a morality play.

You may want to read about the Paradox of Thrift.

Sure, it sounds good if everyone saves money. But if they all do it at the same time, it's a depression/recession.

Armoured
18-11-2014, 15:39
More detail:

Paradox of thrift - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So even if everyone does the 'right' thing - saving - everyone ends up being worse off - with lower savings.

Similarly with (as above) Japanese government - in certain circumstances, if it tries to balance its budget by raising taxes (in this sense, same as saving), it may end up with a worse budget situation (lower savings / higher deficit and debt).

If you want to compare to a household (or households in general), think of someone with a home business who decides to save on advertising - they 'save' $100 a month, but 'lose' $1000 in revenue. Cost-cutting sounds good but kills his/her business. Oh, and hurts his employees, suppliers, and on and on.

If everybody in business (and households and government) does this at the same time, it's a full-blown depression.

For a government/economy, it's quite a bit more complicated, and analogies imperfect, of course.

Yaks
18-11-2014, 16:42
austerity is terrible, it means sacking all the government workers to save money who then don't have jobs and don't spend. it means cutting pensions and allowances which also mean people have less money and don't spend. not spending hits the retail sector who lose money so let go workers who then don't have jobs and don't spend. it becomes a vicious cycle. less spending= less taxes the government gets to pay off debt and the more in trouble they sink.

Armoured
18-11-2014, 22:26
austerity is terrible, it means sacking all the government workers to save money who then don't have jobs and don't spend.

There are times when it makes sense for government to save money / raise taxes. And there are ways to cut spending / raise taxes that can have less negative impact on the overall economy and/or get incentives right (and vice versa).

But I've seen a fair amount of economic history and (generally speaking) most improvements in government finances have come from governments restraining spending during periods of economic growth - that is, they didn't _cut_ spending outright, but kept it from growing as fast as it had been before (and slower than the economy / tax revenues). Actually even more common is from modest tax rises during growth - and likewise, most of the growth in revenue has been from improved economy rather than the tax increases.

The _language_ and politics may have emphasized cuts or tax increases ('austerity' in various guises) but the real difference was elsewhere.

There are some exceptions - military cuts at ends of conflict periods for one. Data sometimes doesn't split these differences out as much as we'd like, and politicians take credit for good stuff that happens on their watch/deny responsibility for the bad stuff.

Anyway, a bit off topic, or too broad, but Japan is clearly in a Keynesian-type demand slump and has been for ages. In that context, contractionary policy is ... contractionary.

Uncle Wally
18-11-2014, 23:17
Good slogans. Entirely meaningless, of course. Economics is not a morality play.

You may want to read about the Paradox of Thrift.

Sure, it sounds good if everyone saves money. But if they all do it at the same time, it's a depression/recession.


No that's where you are wrong, life is a "morality play". You believe everything revolves around money and that's just what banktsers want you to think. That is why they have taken things that could be and should be free and made people pay through the nose for them. Water, energy, health. They spead lies, kill people and their ideas that would lose them money, all to keep you inslaved. This is why we have wars, pollution and sickness. This planet has a system and it works just fine, but when you try to make your own system it will not work. All life is equal, we we live and we die. We eat food and are food there is no "top" to the food chain because the chain is round, like our earth and sun and we go around and it comes around and then back again.


Jas I have a book for you to write. How about a bunch of super rich people took over the world and got us all into a terrible war that left only 500,000,000 people because the super rich people though that was a good amount of people for the Earth but when the 495,000,000 people that were left that weren't rich realized what they had done they killed them all and lived happily ever after.


Keynesian economics is death. It's the manual to end life.

Nobbynumbnuts
18-11-2014, 23:24
No that's where you are wrong, life is a "morality play". You believe everything revolves around money and that's just what banktsers want you to think. That is why they have taken things that could be and should be free and made people pay through the nose for them. Water, energy, health. They spead lies, kill people and their ideas that would lose them money, all to keep you inslaved. This is why we have wars, pollution and sickness. This planet has a system and it works just fine, but when you try to make your own system it will not work. All life is equal, we we live and we die. We eat food and are food there is no "top" to the food chain because the chain is round, like our earth and sun and we go around and it comes around and then back again.


Jas I have a book for you to write. How about a bunch of super rich people took over the world and got us all into a terrible war that left only 500,000,000 people because the super rich people though that was a good amount of people for the Earth but when the 495,000,000 people that were left that weren't rich realized what they had done they killed them all and lived happily ever after.


Keynesian economics is death. It's the manual to end life.

Ah, that time again.. :bong:

Uncle Wally
18-11-2014, 23:41
Ah, that time again.. :bong:



Look you make stupid f@cking commets and you want me to think what? Write some rebuttal or don't write at all. You sound like a sour idiot that had to work hard all his life because he doesn't really know how life works.

Nobbynumbnuts
18-11-2014, 23:54
Look you make stupid f@cking commets and you want me to think what? Write some rebuttal or don't write at all. You sound like a sour idiot that had to work hard all his life because he doesn't really know how life works.

...that's an improvement on the usual nonesense. ;)

Uncle Wally
19-11-2014, 00:00
...that's an improvement on the usual nonesense. ;)




Totally randum video that does not mean anything and in no way relates to your post above. Just good music and fun!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtZ6hjiJmTU

Uncle Wally
19-11-2014, 00:16
Ah, that time again.. :bong:




Yes you sir I believe have no, not one ounce of integrity.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-11-2014, 00:48
Totally randum video that does not mean anything and in no way relates to your post above. Just good music and fun!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtZ6hjiJmTU

Right, just what we needed on a thread about the dollar. :p

Nobbynumbnuts
19-11-2014, 00:54
Yes you sir I believe have no, not one ounce of integrity.

We're all open to critism of course but not sure 'integrity' is exactly the word you're looking for but never mind. ;)

Uncle Wally
19-11-2014, 12:37
We're all open to critism of course but not sure 'integrity' is exactly the word you're looking for but never mind. ;)


No that's the word.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-11-2014, 12:48
No that's the word.

Fine, then i'll try not to get too upset about it......:p

AstarD
19-11-2014, 12:54
No that's where you are wrong, life is a "morality play". You believe everything revolves around money... Doh, you're the one who's always talking about money, dude.

AstarD
19-11-2014, 12:58
The Money Song - Monty Python's The Flying Circus - YouTube

Uncle Wally
19-11-2014, 14:35
Right, just what we needed on a thread about the dollar. :p


Did you listen to it? You might understand more if you do.


Anyway it's my thread I'll what I like.

Nobbynumbnuts
19-11-2014, 16:02
Did you listen to it? You might understand more if you do.


Anyway it's my thread I'll what I like.

A big fan of Frank Zappa. I remember listening to Just Another band From L.A (especially liked Billy the Mountain) in 1976. Hilarious! But i wouldn't claim anyone would ever learn anything from him..;)

Russian Lad
20-11-2014, 01:52
In this "Money song", what exactly is he saying at 1.07-1.14? Can someone please kindly write a transcript? I sort of have a deaf ear for this part.

Armoured
20-11-2014, 08:43
Good thing Japan brought in a sales tax. Thanks to the Fiscal Rectitudalists! (Rectalists?)

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/fiscal-responsibility-claims-another-victim/

"...the Japanese story is another example of the damage wrought by the rhetoric of fiscal responsibility in a depressed economy."