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Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 21:30
Oil wars that is.

The vice-president of Russia's state-owned oil behemoth Rosneft has accused Saudi Arabia of manipulating the oil price for political reasons. Mikhail Leontyev was quoted in Russian media as saying:

Prices can be manipulative. First of all, Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabias-oil-price-policy-101314302.html

Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 21:39
China steps in to save the day?


Last Friday it was revealed that the purpose behind Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to Saudi Arabia a few weeks back was to sign a secret deal by which the leading OPEC state would saturate the markets with excess oil and cause prices to fall for the global commodity. This move would have the consequence of causing vast harm to the Russian Rouble, and increase inflation and price instability for the Eurasian state.

However, on Oct. 13 Russia's strongest ally and member nation in the BRICS coalition signed its own deal with the Eurasian power to not only help stabilize prices for the beleaguered economy, but increase direct non-dollar trade with a 150 billion currency swap deal through which Russian Roubles are traded directly for Chinese Yuan. This new deal will have the effect of bypassing the dollar and the the reserve currencies overt effects on the Rouble that is part of the ongoing proxy war between America and the East, and also mitigate some of the consequences of the secret Saudi oil program.

China is ready to export agricultural products and oil and gas equipment to Russia, Chinas Vice Premier Wang Yang stated Saturday.

"China is willing to export to Russia such competitive products as agricultural goods, oil and gas equipment, and is ready to import Russian engineering products," Wang Yang said during the 18th session of the Russian-Chinese Commission for the Preparation of Regular Meetings of the Heads of Governments.

And the cherry on top came moments ago when, as if to assure all involved parties that there will be enough capital support on both sides, the PBOC released a surprising announcement that the central banks of China and Russia signed a 3-year, 150 billion yuan bilateral local-currency swap deal today, according to a statement posted on PBOC website. Deal can be expanded if both parties agree, statement says. Deal aims to make bilateral trade and direct investment more convenient and promote economic development in 2 nations.

The significance of this deal is two-fold. First, by allowing for Russia to have direct trade between themselves and China in their own national currencies, Russia can mitigate some of their escalating price inflation within their country that is a direct result of Saudi Arabia's overt actions to drive down the price of oil. Secondly, by facilitating the purchasing of Chinese products without the use of the dollar as a middle-man, Russia puts even more pressure on Europe who is hemorrhaging trade that had been a mainstay between the EU and Russia, and which is now accelerating Europe's path into recession.

As long as oil is denominated in dollars in the global market, the U.S. can and will use its control over the petro-dollar and reserve currency to inflict economic war against any and all nations that do not cede to American national policies. And with the U.S.'s current desire to escalate chaos in both Ukraine and Syria, and to keep Russia out of the picture and unable to protect their new and long-standing allies by disrupting their economy and currency, today's intervention by China may be the key in allowing Russia to stabilize prices within their economy, and to inflict greater harm to America's allies who still are beholden to dollar denominated trade.


http://www.examiner.com/article/as-secret-saudi-deal-increases-harm-to-russian-currency-china-intervenes

Armoured
13-10-2014, 22:07
The vice-president of Russia's state-owned oil behemoth Rosneft has accused Saudi Arabia of manipulating the oil price for political reasons. Mikhail Leontyev was quoted in Russian media as saying:

Finally the logic of them renting a cheap, vendu attack dog like Leontyev makes sense.

"See, they're out to get us! That's why Rosneft needs money from the government! Not because we bought too much stuff and took on too much debt!"

rumple_stilskin
13-10-2014, 22:16
Last Friday it was revealed that the purpose behind Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to Saudi Arabia a few weeks back was to sign a secret deal by which the leading OPEC state would saturate the markets with excess oil and cause prices to fall for the global commodity. This move would have the consequence of causing vast harm to the Russian Rouble, and increase inflation and price instability for the Eurasian state.


The deal has a second angle. If Russia stops accepting dollars for their oil and gas other countries will stop holding dollars. So by lowering the price they are also maintaining the percentage of the oil market getting purchased in dollars. maintaining, if they can, the Petrodollar.

Trying to stall the collapse of the dollar. What exactly will Saudi Arabia do with all those US dollars? buy weapons I guess, won't be much good for anything else.

Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 22:30
Finally the logic of them rent a cheap, vendu attack dog like Leontyev makes sense.

"See, they're out to get us! That's why Rosneft needs money from the government! Not because we bought too much stuff and took on too much debt!"



What are you talking about?

AstarD
13-10-2014, 22:35
What are you talking about?Odnaka.

fenrir
13-10-2014, 22:42
The deal has a second angle. If Russia stops accepting dollars for their oil and gas other countries will stop holding dollars. So by lowering the price they are also maintaining the percentage of the oil market getting purchased in dollars. maintaining, if they can, the Petrodollar.

Trying to stall the collapse of the dollar. What exactly will Saudi Arabia do with all those US dollars? buy weapons I guess, won't be much good for anything else.

The ruble is turning into toilet paper as we speak and all you can go on about is how the dollar is supposedly going to go down. I've been listening to people like you since 2008 and nothing has happened yet. What happened to all that ruble becoming a reserve currency tripe that was being peddled years ago?

Btw, it must suck that Saudi Arabia can do this to Russia and Russia has virtually nothing they can do back.

Armoured
13-10-2014, 22:44
The deal has a second angle. If Russia stops accepting dollars for their oil and gas other countries will stop holding dollars. So by lowering the price they are also maintaining the percentage of the oil market getting purchased in dollars. maintaining, if they can, the Petrodollar.

Say what? How does that work?


Trying to stall the collapse of the dollar. What exactly will Saudi Arabia do with all those US dollars? buy weapons I guess, won't be much good for anything else.

Let me get this straight - so by Russia refusing to accept dollars for oil, it will somehow hurt Saudi Arabia? Do you think Saudi Arabia needs to buy oil from Russia?

Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 23:00
Say what? How does that work?



Let me get this straight - so by Russia refusing to accept dollars for oil, it will somehow hurt Saudi Arabia? Do you think Saudi Arabia needs to buy oil from Russia?



No but the dollars they get for their oil will be worth less and less. Oil is the only thing keeping the dollar where it is.

Remington
13-10-2014, 23:03
The deal has a second angle. If Russia stops accepting dollars for their oil and gas other countries will stop holding dollars. So by lowering the price they are also maintaining the percentage of the oil market getting purchased in dollars. maintaining, if they can, the Petrodollar.

Saudis and other OPEC countries have the option to switch to different currency but they won't do it simply since it will take a year and it'll be cost-prohibitive for oil companies and cartels to switch everything to different currency. It's just not worth it so they'll stick with USD until it becomes worthless or devalued which is highly unlikely.

If Russia wants to switch to Rubles or Yuan for the oil so good luck. It doesn't bother OPEC one bit because they don't sell oil to Russia. China still will have to buy oil in USD regardless. Russia and China are still building the oil pipeline but that could take years to complete.

Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 23:12
Saudis and other OPEC countries have the option to switch to different currency but they won't do it simply since it will take a year and it'll be cost-prohibitive for oil companies and cartels to switch everything to different currency. It's just not worth it so they'll stick with USD until it becomes worthless or devalued which is highly unlikely.

If Russia wants to switch to Rubles or Yuan for the oil so good luck. It doesn't bother OPEC one bit because they don't sell oil to Russia. China still will have to buy oil in USD regardless. Russia and China are still building the oil pipeline but that could take years to complete.


Why does China have to buy oil for dollars?

Armoured
13-10-2014, 23:20
What are you talking about?

Geez, does it have to be spelled out to you? Rosneft is increasingly a disaster - built on huge amounts of borrowed money based on projections of production and oil prices that were, ahem, optimistic. They've succeeded in pissing away billions of taxpayer dollars. And Leontyev is being used to justify that by coming up with conspiracy theories - 'it's not that the plans were wrong, it's those darn foreigners!'

For a simple comparison: Exxon Mobil, for a very large company, has very little debt as a proportion of its annual revenues. Close to zero net debt against about $400 billion in annual revenue, or $32 billion in annual profit.

Rosneft? About $60 billion in net debt (I took out some things like tax provisions which I'm sure Rosneft will never pay), against only $15 billion in net profit. But about half of that profit was a one-off from acquiring TNK-BP (a paper profit), so in future will never be that high again. Particularly since oil price is falling and financing costs probably going up.

In short: Rosneft is (as far as I can tell) one of the most leveraged oil companies in the world at probably the worst possible time. And by many accounts, taking on more huge projects (future debt) and running its assets badly.

So, 'screw you, taxpayer! (But don't worry, we have Leontyev to blame it on conspiracy theories)'

[Caveat: these are my quick calcs and very rough estimates, not a professional analysis. Feel free to disagree. But it's all based on public information.]

Uncle Wally
13-10-2014, 23:29
Geez, does it have to be spelled out to you? Rosneft is increasingly a disaster - built on huge amounts of borrowed money based on projections of production and oil prices that were, ahem, optimistic. They've succeeded in pissing away billions of taxpayer dollars. And Leontyev is being used to justify that by coming up with conspiracy theories - 'it's not that the plans were wrong, it's those darn foreigners!'

For a simple comparison: Exxon Mobil, for a very large company, has very little debt as a proportion of its annual revenues. Close to zero net debt against about $400 billion in annual revenue, or $32 billion in annual profit.

Rosneft? About $60 billion in net debt (I took out some things like tax provisions which I'm sure Rosneft will never pay), against only $15 billion in net profit. But about half of that profit was a one-off from acquiring TNK-BP (a paper profit), so in future will never be that high again. Particularly since oil price is falling and financing costs probably going up.

In short: Rosneft is (as far as I can tell) one of the most leveraged oil companies in the world at probably the worst possible time. And by many accounts, taking on more huge projects (future debt) and running its assets badly.

So, 'screw you, taxpayer! (But don't worry, we have Leontyev to blame it on conspiracy theories)'

[Caveat: these are my quick calcs and very rough estimates, not a professional analysis. Feel free to disagree. But it's all based on public information.]



Saudi Arabia pushing the price down to make it harder for Russia, That's a fact.

fenrir
13-10-2014, 23:57
Saudi Arabia pushing the price down to make it harder for Russia, That's a fact.

And, so what? Russia is getting some of its own medicine. Enjoy!

fenrir
14-10-2014, 00:00
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-admits-defeat-over-defending-the-ruble-2014-10

But it's the dollar or euro that is going down, right?

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 00:09
And, so what? Russia is getting some of its own medicine. Enjoy!



You sound so happy we are getting closer to a world war.


Just remember it ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 00:32
Saudi Arabia pushing the price down to make it harder for Russia, That's a fact.

Bingo! Smell the coffee. :rolleyes: The US have also increased their own oil sales, Kuwait officials have already estimated that the price is bound to be 76 dollars per barrel rather soon.

JanC
14-10-2014, 00:39
It's a free market. What's the problem? Just a little reminder that Russia needs the rest of the world to pay the bills.

Meanwhile, 7 of the 8 topics on top of this section have been started by you and Fantastika. We get the point already.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 00:55
Meanwhile, 7 of the 8 topics on top of this section have been started by you and Fantastika. We get the point already.

Looks like an uncurtailed, pathetic agony, doesn't it?

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 00:58
It's a free market. What's the problem? Just a little reminder that Russia needs the rest of the world to pay the bills.

Meanwhile, 7 of the 8 topics on top of this section have been started by you and Fantastika. We get the point already.


No I don't think you get it.. you may think it's great that America is trying to take over the world and make us all live under fascism but others don't.


NEW YORK (AP) -- If you're a driver, a shipper or an airline, low oil prices sure feel nice. But there are downsides to the recent plunge in oil prices for the oil industry and for the economy.

Low fuel prices can help boost economic growth by reducing fuel bills and leaving consumers and companies with more money to spend on other things. Problem is, two factors behind the oil-price drop a weaker global economy and a stronger dollar could hurt the U.S. economy by reducing exports, employment and spending. And all that, in turn, could outweigh the economic benefit of cheaper fuel.

"Initially, (a lower oil price) will provide a boost to an economy that already has some momentum," says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "It's like a tax cut. The problem is that it will come back to haunt us in 2015."

A boom in U.S. oil production, which has helped reduce dependence on foreign oil, has been propelled by high prices. Drilling in some areas of North Dakota and Texas, for example, produces only a slight output per day. If prices fell further, drilling would have to slow because it would no longer be profitable.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-drop-oil-prices-could-172234863.html

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 01:00
Looks like an uncurtailed, pathetic agony, doesn't it?




No that's what you sound like. You missed the boat, we are all headed for hard times.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 01:13
we are all headed for hard times.

I don't have any cash on my rubles accounts, unlike Judge or Ben, not sure about you.:) Whenever I need money, I take crispy Euro banknotes from under my matress and go to an obmennik to get the rubles I plan to spend soon. So far, it has worked fine. I see the need to buy some dollars now, too.
Is your rooting for the current regime in Russia based on any real deeds like keeping all your earnings in rubles or it is just a shallow and lame showing off?:) Or it is just a childish negativity on the basis of "America is bad, so Russia must be good"?

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 01:21
I don't have any cash on my rubles accounts, unlike Judge or Ben, not sure about you.:) Whenever I need money, I take crispy Euro banknotes from under my matress and go to an obmennik to get the rubles I plan to spend soon.
Is your rooting for the current regime in Russia based on any real deeds like keeping all your earnings in rubles or it is just a shallow and lame showing off?:) Or it is just a childish negativity on the basis of "America is bad, so Russia must be good"?




Russia is better than what they have in store. Russia's the only one with enough eggs to stand up to them. Believe me it will be really bad if a few people run everything. I'm glad you have your euros I don't really need them, but I don't need much any more.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 01:34
Russia's the only one with enough eggs to stand up to them.

The current regime is just having wet dreams about restoring an empire, just like Hitler had back in 1938. It is a typical Versaille complex in operation. That's why they still keep a decaying corpse smack in the middle of Moscow, that's why the music of the hymn was made Soviet again. A bunch of old personages who will die soon anyway, trying to drag the whole country to the grave with them.
I am a Russian and I would not mind Russia getting a better place under the sun, but through innovations, science, commerce, development of production, richer culture. Not with tanks ironing foreign countries, especially our Slavic neighbor, Ukraine - and lying about it, and secretly burying the dead soldiers as if they are stray dogs.

MashaSashina
14-10-2014, 03:00
btw, it's interesting how all those countries from developed democratic world turn a blind eye on the sharia-based laws in Saudi Arabia, oppression of women, death penalty for gays, entertaining public executions and punishments on Fridays and keep buying their oil and having a pretty active trading relationships. Guess whatever SA does any country will just take in silence - that's the advantage of being world biggest oil exporter and producer.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 03:12
btw, it's interesting how all those countries from developed democratic world turn a blind eye on the sharia-based laws in Saudi Arabia, oppression of women, death penalty for gays, entertaining public executions and punishments on Fridays and keep buying their oil and having a pretty active trading relationships. Guess whatever SA does any country will just take in silence - that's the advantage of being world biggest oil exporter and producer.

They ended up turning a blind eye even on what was going on in Chechnya, I don't remember 4th level sanctions against Russia back then when we sh't-bombed Chechnya. So, there is some respect for _internal_ matters when Russia is concerned as well.
And yes, it is an imperfect world, it is all about the degrees of imperfection.

Armoured
14-10-2014, 04:48
Saudi Arabia pushing the price down to make it harder for Russia, That's a fact.

You know, Wally, if those in charge are as conspiracy-minded as you, you would think that they would have bothered to figure out basic corporate finance and be prepared for this. I man, it's not the first time the price of oil has fallen. Every _other_ major oil company doesn't have this vulnerability.

So even if you believe what you wrote above, you would pretty much have to conclude that the people in charge are not very competent, not the sharpest tools in the shed, or particularly venal and greedy (or some combination thereof).

And the best part is - they know Rosneft can't fail because they know they will all be saved with your tax dollars. Or borrowed yuan.

Blaming it on Saudi Arabia or some other conspiracy is just the way they sell it to the public.

Fantastika
14-10-2014, 09:20
Meanwhile, 7 of the 8 topics on top of this section have been started by you and Fantastika. We get the point already.

:rofl: What? I started 3 new topics out of the top 40, and there's 200? topics in Current Affairs? And besides Current Affairs, there are 50 or so other forum areas. So there are 3000? topics?

What are you, the "Topic Czar"? :rofl: You should work for CNN, where you can not only choose the topic, but write clear bureaucratese indoctrination!

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 10:47
You know, Wally, if those in charge are as conspiracy-minded as you, you would think that they would have bothered to figure out basic corporate finance and be prepared for this. I man, it's not the first time the price of oil has fallen. Every _other_ major oil company doesn't have this vulnerability.

So even if you believe what you wrote above, you would pretty much have to conclude that the people in charge are not very competent, not the sharpest tools in the shed, or particularly venal and greedy (or some combination thereof).

And the best part is - they know Rosneft can't fail because they know they will all be saved with your tax dollars. Or borrowed yuan.

Blaming it on Saudi Arabia or some other conspiracy is just the way they sell it to the public.


I posted an acticle about how it will hurt US oil companies fracking and pumping in low yield wells, you must have missed it. Do I believe what I wrote above? Yes, OPEC controls the price of oil and they have been keeping it high for a long time now, that's what OPEC is for. Rosneft won't fail just like the banks that were too big to fail and you're paying for that, like your paying for unjust wars, spying on everyone and every other illegal thing the US does. And your grandchildrens grandchildren will be paying for it too.

Armoured
14-10-2014, 10:58
I posted an acticle about how it will hurt US oil companies fracking and pumping in low yield wells, you must have missed it.

Well, sure - anyone who produces oil will be hurt if the price of oil comes down. Some will be hurt more than others - but the ones you are mentioning are, notably, not state-owned giants funded by debt.

To return to the original point: Rosneft's spokesperson claiming it is being done on purpose by Saudi Arabia to hurt Russia is not very credible. Rosneft has, as I"ve outlined, every reason to blame its problems on 'someone else.'

[editadd] Just in case you think I've been overly harsh in my Rosneft calcs, I saw a report today that put Rosneft's debt at US$90 billion (I put at $60). That's an extraordinarily high level of debt by most measures, and compared to global peers.

Judge
14-10-2014, 12:20
Oil wars that is.

The vice-president of Russia's state-owned oil behemoth Rosneft has accused Saudi Arabia of manipulating the oil price for political reasons. Mikhail Leontyev was quoted in Russian media as saying:

Prices can be manipulative. First of all, Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabias-oil-price-policy-101314302.html

Reading some articles about low oil prices, this will also be bad news for many shale drilling companies in America, maybe it's America who the Saudis want to teach a lesson to .

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 14:05
Well, sure - anyone who produces oil will be hurt if the price of oil comes down. Some will be hurt more than others - but the ones you are mentioning are, notably, not state-owned giants funded by debt.

To return to the original point: Rosneft's spokesperson claiming it is being done on purpose by Saudi Arabia to hurt Russia is not very credible. Rosneft has, as I"ve outlined, every reason to blame its problems on 'someone else.'

[editadd] Just in case you think I've been overly harsh in my Rosneft calcs, I saw a report today that put Rosneft's debt at US$90 billion (I put at $60). That's an extraordinarily high level of debt by most measures, and compared to global peers.




"not very credible"? Are you joking?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/why-oil-plunging-other-part-secret-deal-between-us-and-saudi-arabia

You bomb Syria we'll take Russia's money.

Nobbynumbnuts
14-10-2014, 14:25
"not very credible"? Are you joking?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/why-oil-plunging-other-part-secret-deal-between-us-and-saudi-arabia

You bomb Syria we'll take Russia's money.

You might enjoy this link:
http://www.beano.com

:p

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 15:01
You might enjoy this link:
http://www.beano.com

:p

Great here's one for you,

The Complete Idiot's Guide to U.S. Government and Politics: Franco Scardino: 9781592578535: Amazon.com: Books@@AMEPARAM@@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51KzmBaFwiL.@@AMEPARAM@@51KzmBaFwiL

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 16:45
Age of VVP - 62. Euro - 51. Oil - 89. I reckon soon they will merge into one number. That's when the real fun begins.

Armoured
14-10-2014, 17:40
Because I think it's relevant: doesn't matter at all what currency oil is priced or sold in. Won't help Russia, won't help China, mostly irrelevant and incoherent thoughtprocess.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ru/2014/10/end-of-us-dollar-hegemony-not.html

Benedikt
14-10-2014, 19:14
[QUOTE=Armoured;1361384]Because I think it's relevant: doesn't matter at all what currency oil is priced or sold in. Won't help Russia, won't help China, mostly irrelevant and incoherent thoughtprocess.

one or two posters have made up their mind and opinion and don't tolerate anything else or try to understand that other people might have a different opinion about things.
a mud fest at its best this post. time to learn for some posters to learn tolerance and accept other peoples opinion as well.

Armoured
14-10-2014, 19:26
one or two posters have made up their mind and opinion and don't tolerate anything else or try to understand that other people might have a different opinion about things.
a mud fest at its best this post. time to learn for some posters to learn tolerance and accept other peoples opinion as well.

I don't know if this is directed at me, but I'd be happy to hear an argument that made sense. Here, I even posted from someone I disagree with (on most things) as I read from different sorts.

But I still see no coherent point - the argument that magically, Russia switches to rubles or yuan and that makes the dollar disappear is just silly.

So what _is_ your point?

And of course, everyone's entitled to their opinion. And everyone else is entitled to think and say that opinion makes no sense - especially if they're willing to back it up with actual facts and arguments.

Russian Lad
14-10-2014, 19:27
one or two posters have made up their mind and opinion and don't tolerate anything else or try to understand that other people might have a different opinion about things.
a mud fest at its best this post. time to learn for some posters to learn tolerance and accept other peoples opinion as well.

So, you agree with Willy and also think it is a clever maneuver of Russia to beat the dollar and it is a great success for Russia at present? I understand Willy's opinion, I am yet to learn yours.
P. S. Have you finally gotten rid of your rubles?:) Since the beginning of 2015 the Russian CB is going to stop its interventions altogether, at least directly, with repos and such still in place. You better hurry.:) And calculate how much you have lost during the last year... Euro has grown by more than 10 rubles since I told you to get rid of yours a year ago. My next forecast - over 60 rubles within half a year. There is a price to pay for being stubborn and delusional, you are paying yours... I am converting some of my Euros into dollars now, to keep up with the changing trend.

TolkoRaz
14-10-2014, 21:57
2 citizens of the US of A shot in in Riyadh earlier today; 1 dead!

Armoured
14-10-2014, 22:08
2 citizens of the US of A shot in in Riyadh earlier today; 1 dead!

http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/alertswarnings/saudi-arabia-travel-warning.html


terrorist groups, some affiliated with al-Qaida, may target both Saudi and Western interests. Possible targets include housing compounds, hotels, shopping areas and other facilities where Westerners congregate, as well as Saudi government facilities and economic/commercial targets within the Kingdom.

U.S. citizens should be aware of their surroundings at all times and are advised to keep a low profile; vary times and routes of travel; exercise caution while driving, and entering or exiting vehicles; and ensure that travel documents and visas are current and valid.

It's a direct and robust travel advisory about perceived direct physical threats.

TolkoRaz
14-10-2014, 22:18
Being US of A Defense Contractors, they should have been well briefed!

Uncle Wally
14-10-2014, 22:31
Being US of A Defense Contractors, they should have been well briefed!



They're American, always well briefed.

http://www.freshpair.com/mens/underwear.html

Judge
15-10-2014, 00:47
The situation is starting to become much clearer now.
For the past few years, America has been less dependent on Saudi oil,cos of the shale boom,this has pushed the Saudis to look for a new market to enter,mainly Europe and in the way is Syria.
The Saudi-US relationship has been on the rocks for awhile now,with Obama not bombing Assad when the Saudis wanted,it is looking more and more likley that the Saudis want to punish the US, it now sees the US a rival in the oil business, before the US was a customer...
US shale firms need oil prices to be around the $80 mark, otherwise it's not profitable for these independent drilling companies...If wells start to shut down it could have a knock on effect in the US..

Fantastika
15-10-2014, 00:55
So, you agree with Willy and also think it is a clever maneuver of Russia to beat the dollar and it is a great success for Russia at present? I understand Willy's opinion, I am yet to learn yours.
P. S. Have you finally gotten rid of your rubles?:) Since the beginning of 2015 the Russian CB is going to stop its interventions altogether, at least directly, with repos and such still in place. You better hurry.:) And calculate how much you have lost during the last year... Euro has grown by more than 10 rubles since I told you to get rid of yours a year ago. My next forecast - over 60 rubles within half a year. There is a price to pay for being stubborn and delusional, you are paying yours... I am converting some of my Euros into dollars now, to keep up with the changing trend.

The best way to accumulate cabbage is to put your money into a variety - 20% real estate, 20% gold, 20% stocks, etc... When the ruble is hitting new lows, is not the time to sell, it's the time to buy!

Russian Lad
15-10-2014, 01:07
When the ruble is hitting new lows, is not the time to sell, it's the time to buy!

HAHAHA Go and buy them, if you enjoy wiping your arse with rubles or fancy them as wall paper. I haven't developed a warm heart for either of those possible two applications. It looks like you haven't read what I wrote - even the Central Russian Bank will not intervene anymore to maintain the current levels. Besides, there are sanctions and the decreasing oil prices. I would not expect it to go up under such conditions, it is bound to continue going down at least till like the middle of 2015, with some short-term corrective bounce-backs - it is true that people make money on those bouncing trends, but I am not an expert on this, and a lot of cash would be required to be generating a steady profit speculating off that.


The situation is starting to become much clearer now.
For the past few years, America has been less dependent on Saudi oil,cos of the shale boom,this has pushed the Saudis to look for a new market to enter,mainly Europe and in the way is Syria.
The Saudi-US relationship has been on the rocks for awhile now,with Obama not bombing Assad when the Saudis wanted,it is looking more and more likley that the Saudis want to punish the US, it now sees the US a rival in the oil business, before the US was a customer...
US shale firms need oil prices to be around the $80 mark, otherwise it's not profitable for these independent drilling companies...If wells start to shut down it could have a knock on effect in the US..

I am 100% sure the US and the Saudis have a sweet deal and there is VVP written on a very big folder they signed together - like I said they would, months ago, I was saying they would dump the oil prices back in April (it was 115 then, it is 86 and going down fast now). The US have also increased their oil output, they would not be doing it if they wanted the oil price to remain high at this particular juncture. They both want it down. For the obvious reasons and purposes. I am going to enjoy this show and gloat over the every day of it:).

Armoured
15-10-2014, 05:30
The situation is starting to become much clearer now.
For the past few years, America has been less dependent on Saudi oil,cos of the shale boom,this has pushed the Saudis to look for a new market to enter,mainly Europe and in the way is Syria.
The Saudi-US relationship has been on the rocks for awhile now,with Obama not bombing Assad when the Saudis wanted,it is looking more and more likley that the Saudis want to punish the US, it now sees the US a rival in the oil business, before the US was a customer...
US shale firms need oil prices to be around the $80 mark, otherwise it's not profitable for these independent drilling companies...If wells start to shut down it could have a knock on effect in the US..

I don't really buy any of this "Saudi plot" stuff - I think it fits with long-term Saudi behaviour to let the price drift up or down _somewhat_ when it's driven by fundamentals. Otherwise they'd have to give up too much income trying to keep it up artificially, and others would poach the amount they cut down. (This is just my interpretation of Saudi policy though) And letting it drift lower does also make alternative sources (shale, other tight oil) grow more slowly, and Saudi are a bit paranoid about other sources of energy getting too attractive.

Anyway, mainly I wanted to note this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0RO4TW20140924

Energy efficiency has contributed more to the swing in oil/energy balances for the US than shale oil.

As for other reasons for oil weakenss? Well, _everywhere_ is looking bad - Europe, China (largest market for growth in oil demand slowing rapidly), LatA, etc. Demand is looking very mediocre everywhere.

US is the possible bright spot, but apart from shale production, it's own demand is no longer growing, basically - energy efficiency will continue to whittle away the baseline even with lower oil prices.

None of this makes e.g. $80 oil look expensive. Believe it's a conspiracy against Russia/North Dakota/Alberta/Kim Jong Un if you like, the reasons for the fall in price are not hard to figure out _without_ a conspiracy.

And if the simpler explanation works...anyway I think I'll go on down to the logicians' barber shop. "Yes, please use the sharp one - Occam's there."
http://www.occams.com.au/images/Banner.jpg

Russian Lad
15-10-2014, 06:31
Armoured, how do you explain that the US is stepping up its own production then, and rather significantly, even tapping into some of their reserves untouched since the eighties, as I understand?
I have a feeling this world is full of conspiracies and we, mere mortals, are seeing only the tip of a huge iceberg, occasionally. Conspiracies are in our nature. Show me a single person who has never lied to anybody. When we lie and do something different from what we say, however noble or ugly our intentions might be, we create a little conspiracy of our own, however small it might be. Naturally, it gets much bigger on the inter-state level.

Armoured
15-10-2014, 08:12
Armoured, how do you explain that the US is stepping up its own production then, and rather significantly, even tapping into some of their reserves untouched since the eighties, as I understand?

The US doesn't 'step up its production.' Companies decide to do so, or not, if they can make money. I don't believe the reserves have been opened.


I have a feeling this world is full of conspiracies and we, mere mortals, are seeing only the tip of a huge iceberg, occasionally. Conspiracies are in our nature.

Sure, there are _some_ conspiracies. But stupidity and incompetence usually get in the way of them working, or keeping them secret. (I admit though that in Russia there are many, many more - but that's a separate discussion)

At any rate, for this "Saudi is dumping oil to hurt Russia' bit, here is my analysis.

-If this conspiracy were true but the other parts of the story were not, would what is happening to the oil price be possible? No - in a moderately tight market, Saudi would have to shut huge amounts of production, and would be quickly seen. So far, the only indications are that they haven't _cut_ production yet.

-If all of the current events were true and there _wasn't_ a conspiracy, would the data or probability still be a good fit with what's happening?

And to the second, the answer's yes. A very good fit/probability indeed.

So to me, the "Saudi plot" story contains no additional information needed to understand, and adds no explanatory power. Hence, to me, that theory requires some form of credible proof.

[I'm perhaps undermining my argument here, but I am also going to be _very_ skeptical of Saudi quasi-officials claiming this too - it is in Saudi's interests to have everyone believe they control the market. The belief that they can and will do 'it' (massively disrupt the market to achieve goals) is an essential part of that power working. So I expect them to lie and exaggerate, like a cardreader fitting the predictions to the facts.]

Nobbynumbnuts
15-10-2014, 11:53
The situation is starting to become much clearer now.
For the past few years, America has been less dependent on Saudi oil,cos of the shale boom,this has pushed the Saudis to look for a new market to enter,mainly Europe and in the way is Syria.
The Saudi-US relationship has been on the rocks for awhile now,with Obama not bombing Assad when the Saudis wanted,it is looking more and more likley that the Saudis want to punish the US, it now sees the US a rival in the oil business, before the US was a customer...
US shale firms need oil prices to be around the $80 mark, otherwise it's not profitable for these independent drilling companies...If wells start to shut down it could have a knock on effect in the US..

Historically the US has been on the opposing side to the Saudis over the Palestinian issue-when they had good relations, as you put it.
The US is vital to Saudi Arabia's interests and vise versa. The US still pretty much guarantees Saudi security with arms sales etc. against a skyrocketing oil price should it be threatened. That security is important, not least with their great rival Iran across the gulf.
Saudi Arabia is sanguine about low prices. It can afford to be, it has some of the lowest production costs in the world. (Russia's much higher)
If low prices force some American shale producers to shut down, this will help to stabilize prices.

Low prices are with us simply because there's a glut. American shale production, Libya and Iraq are producing again with real volume. Demand is down in China and across the globe as growth slows. No conspiracies....;)

drbobguy
15-10-2014, 12:00
-If this conspiracy were true but the other parts of the story were not, would what is happening to the oil price be possible? No - in a moderately tight market, Saudi would have to shut huge amounts of production, and would be quickly seen. So far, the only indications are that they haven't _cut_ production yet.


Yeah this is what is going on. Russia is whining that Saudi Arabia decided not to cut production. But Russia is just as big of a producer as SA, so why doesn't Russia cut its own production instead of expecting someone else to?

Nobbynumbnuts
15-10-2014, 12:01
I don't really buy any of this "Saudi plot" stuff - I think it fits with long-term Saudi behaviour to let the price drift up or down _somewhat_ when it's driven by fundamentals. Otherwise they'd have to give up too much income trying to keep it up artificially, and others would poach the amount they cut down. (This is just my interpretation of Saudi policy though) And letting it drift lower does also make alternative sources (shale, other tight oil) grow more slowly, and Saudi are a bit paranoid about other sources of energy getting too attractive..........

...and allowing markets to do their work, weaker prices when demand is low (recession) allows the market to recover. Cheaper prices help to stimulate recovery and therefore higher prices again. A natural cycle.

Russian Lad
15-10-2014, 18:24
I don't believe the reserves have been opened.

Well, there are many articles like this one, with quite a title:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/03/16/why-did-the-us-open-up-its-oil-reserves/

We don't know what the US may have promised the Saudis for "temporary difficulties". I have worked with Americans for many years, I know their pattern of thinking, this time they are after the regime change in Russia I think. The first aim - economic squeezing. Give it one year max.
Euro - 52 rubles already.

Armoured
15-10-2014, 21:38
Well, there are many articles like this one, with quite a title:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/03/16/why-did-the-us-open-up-its-oil-reserves/

As far as I can tell, this article is from March, and the sale for a tiny amount.

Maybe it made sense then, and had something to do with the (short-lived) drop in oil prices during the worst of the Crimea crisis.

There are also technical and logistics reasons to do a small test, as they explained at the time (basically the pipeline and transport system was designed for a completely different sources of oil - one reason why so much oil is getting moved around by train in North America).

Believe what you like. But I don't see any link to the current severe drop in price - which is not a one-day thing. And no evidence of sales from the reserve since March.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/us-usa-energy-reserves-idUSBREA2B12V20140312

Uncle Wally
15-10-2014, 22:05
As far as I can tell, this article is from March, and the sale for a tiny amount.

Maybe it made sense then, and had something to do with the (short-lived) drop in oil prices during the worst of the Crimea crisis.

There are also technical and logistics reasons to do a small test, as they explained at the time (basically the pipeline and transport system was designed for a completely different sources of oil - one reason why so much oil is getting moved around by train in North America).

Believe what you like. But I don't see any link to the current severe drop in price - which is not a one-day thing. And no evidence of sales from the reserve since March.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/us-usa-energy-reserves-idUSBREA2B12V20140312


And because you don't see it can't be true. Oh and there was no "drop in oil prices during the worst of the Crimea crisis" Why because Kerry had to ask Saudi Arabia first.

It's not like we need oil.

Free Energy Disclosure Keshe Plasma Generator - YouTube

Armoured
15-10-2014, 22:15
And because you don't see it can't be true. Oh and there was no "drop in oil prices during the worst of the Crimea crisis" Why because Kerry had to ask Saudi Arabia first.

Oh, do try to use your brain once in a while. 5 million barrels - by global standards, a tiny amount - was released (sold) in March.

If you can come up with a plausible link between that and the collapse in prices now, please do, but otherwise, it's just more of your incoherent gibberish.

Fantastika
15-10-2014, 22:26
There are also technical and logistics reasons to do a small test, as they explained at the time (basically the pipeline and transport system was designed for a completely different sources of oil - one reason why so much oil is getting moved around by train in North America).


More lies and disinformation from Armoured, or maybe it's just ignorance?

The reason so much oil is being moved around by rail is because Obama has blocked construction of new pipelines, such as Keystone.

His buddy Warren Buffet (the media's favorite billionaire, because he sings the praises of Barry), is getting rich(er) - he owns Burlington, Northern & Santa Fe, the railroad that carries the oil from Canada to Gulf of Mexico ports. They roar through here 6 times a day, 100+ tank cars in each train.

Uncle Wally
15-10-2014, 22:30
Oh, do try to use your brain once in a while. 5 million barrels - by global standards, a tiny amount - was released (sold) in March.

If you can come up with a plausible link between that and the collapse in prices now, please do, but otherwise, it's just more of your incoherent gibberish.

Like they are going to tell us how much


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-26/soros-endorsed-sale-of-u-s-oil-reserves-seen-as-russian-penalty.html

Armoured
15-10-2014, 22:50
More lies and disinformation from Armoured, or maybe it's just ignorance?

Please identify the lie and disinformation that you claim I made, or we'll just put this down to yet another personal attack.

Uncle Wally
15-10-2014, 22:57
Please identify the lie and disinformation that you claim I made, or we'll just put this down to yet another personal attack.

She said maybe it's just ignorance.


She been taking lesson from Russian Lad.

Armoured
15-10-2014, 23:01
She said maybe it's just ignorance.

That would still require it to be inaccurate.

Russian Lad
15-10-2014, 23:04
She been taking lesson from Russian Lad.

What, you guys cannot handle a fair squabble without my kind assistance? Ok, there-there, who needs a napkin?:)
Armoured, speaking about conspiracies. Russia's role in Ukraine at present is a clear-cut conspiracy, from the Russian side. I cannot see why the West+maybe the Saudis would not respond with a conspiracy messing with oil prices by increasing the output. Wonder if there is an official monthly chart of the recent US and Saudi sales somewhere. I bet we will see an increase on it. Besides, there is Iran, as I understand, some of the sanctions against this country have been lifted recently, including the oil exports. Can be a part of the game against the Russian regime. Mind it, I will actually be happy if the oil drops severely and we finally see some changes here in Russia. So, if this conspiracy is in action, I am an adamant supporter.:) A part of the fifth column and a national traitor, eh wot. Better be a national traitor than a national socialist, under the circumstances, it is not like there are many choices at present.

Uncle Wally
15-10-2014, 23:28
The US didn't start this, is that what you're trying to tell us? It's Russia who is responding.


THe US is the cause of all unrest in the world.

Russian Lad
15-10-2014, 23:34
The US didn't start this, is that what you're trying to tell us? It's Russia who is responding.


THe US is the cause of all unrest in the world.

The US played a role in Ukraine's revolution, just as Russia did, it wasn't just watching - it was helping organize the police and the titushki, etc. No need to portray Russia as some innocent observer in what happened in Kiev - there were just as many "consultants" from Moscow as from Washington. It was an active sidelines participant, just as the US. Moscow lost the battle for Kiev, threw the chess figures off the board and moved in with tanks. Literally. A huge mistake. It helped the US rally up Europe, Australia and so forth against Russia, the end result - isolation and further BIG troubles Russia is yet to go through.
Actually, if Russia responded differently and without military violence and all other deplorable actions, I would be shouting "f'cking Americans", "screw the US with their orange revolutions" right here on this forum, rallying up behind this response.

Uncle Wally
15-10-2014, 23:58
The US played a role in Ukraine's revolution, just as Russia did, it wasn't just watching - it was helping organize the police and the titushki, etc. No need to portray Russia as some innocent observer in what happened in Kiev - there were just as many "consultants" from Moscow as from Washington. It was an active sidelines participant, just as the US. Moscow lost the battle for Kiev, threw the chess figures off the board and moved in with tanks. Literally. A huge mistake. It helped the US rally up Europe, Australia and so forth against Russia, the end result - isolation and further BIG troubles Russia is yet to go through.
Actually, if Russia responded differently and without military violence and all other deplorable actions, I would be shouting "f'cking Americans", "screw the US with their orange revolutions" right here on this forum, rallying up behind this response.



You're joking right?

Russia is most likely why Keiv didn't come out with guns a blazin' in the first place. If you remember the cops were told to leave their guns at home. That is until someone started shooting and shoot they did both cops and protesters! These blood thristy bankers will do anything to get what they want and that means killing whoever gets in their way.

What the cops at work, the cop is the guy with a rock in his hand trying to start sh*t

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDbJlWnW-VA

Russian Lad
16-10-2014, 00:15
If you remember the cops were told to leave their guns at home.

What guns???? The riot police doesn't have firearms. The police has death squads, and they were fully employed (that's 200 meters from where most of the protesters were killed):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjK7LkdmzzA

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 00:42
Only after protester started shooting did cops start carrying gun. I remember how it when because was watching.

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 00:44
The cops weren't really doing their job to begin with. They too were tired of all the shit Ukraine has been through the last 20 years.

Russian Lad
16-10-2014, 00:46
Only after protester started shooting did cops start carrying gun. I remember how it when because was watching.

Let me remind you that Ukraine's interior minister resigned in the middle of this after acknowledging excessive use of force. Again, Russia was an active participant, that's my statement. You claim it was an innocent observer? Even if so, by its subsequent actions Russia gave Ukraine to the bankers you hate on a plate with a silver lining, with most of Ukraine's population hating Russia now, while Russia ended up under sanctions from many dozens of countries and with internationally unrecognized borders. The worst enemy of Russia would not have done any better than this.

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 00:48
What guns???? The riot police doesn't have firearms. The police has death squads, and they were fully employed (that's 200 meters from where most of the protesters were killed):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjK7LkdmzzA

That video was posted Feb 25. If you remember the shoot started around Feb 23. Just after or just before the Sochi got over.

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 00:56
Let me remind you that Ukraine's interior minister resigned in the middle of this after acknowledging excessive use of force. Again, Russia was an active participant, that's my statement. You claim it was an innocent observer?

No but Russia wasn't the one who sent in a sniper with a British weapon to start shooting people or paid neo nazi to start beating people. They weren't passing out cookies telling people they stood by them. Russia is protecting herself that is all. Russia troops did not go in until way after Blackwater and neo nazi started killing people.

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 00:59
Let me remind you that Ukraine's interior minister resigned in the middle of this after acknowledging excessive use of force. Again, Russia was an active participant, that's my statement. You claim it was an innocent observer? Even if so, by its subsequent actions Russia gave Ukraine to the bankers you hate on a plate with a silver lining, with most of Ukraine's population hating Russia now, while Russia ended up under sanctions from many dozens of countries and with internationally unrecognized borders. The worst enemy of Russia would not have done any better than this.


Hating? That's why there are more protest? Check it out, there was more fighting going yesterday with Ukraine government forces.

Russian Lad
16-10-2014, 01:01
No but Russia wasn't the one who sent in a sniper with a British weapon to start shooting people or paid neo nazi to start beating people. They weren't passing out cookies telling people they stood by them. Russia is protecting herself that is all.

Protection by invasion and annexation? Ok. It is a weird notion, if we go by it, Russia should immediately invade almost all of its neighbors - to protect itself and the Russian speakers there, of course. Now Russia is at risk much more than before this "protection". It is like hitting your balls with a sledgehammer because you are freezing - it will warm you up, but there is a lot of collateral damage in the process.

Uncle Wally
16-10-2014, 16:40
Protection by invasion and annexation? Ok. It is a weird notion, if we go by it, Russia should immediately invade almost all of its neighbors - to protect itself and the Russian speakers there, of course. Now Russia is at risk much more than before this "protection". It is like hitting your balls with a sledgehammer because you are freezing - it will warm you up, but there is a lot of collateral damage in the process.



Didn't you learn anything about WW2? The Nazi tried to bypast Crimea thinking it didn't matter but soon found out without it they could go no farther. Not to metion the Navy base Russia has there or you think Russia should just give that up.

Russian Lad
16-10-2014, 17:17
Didn't you learn anything about WW2? The Nazi tried to bypast Crimea thinking it didn't matter but soon found out without it they could go no farther. Not to metion the Navy base Russia has there or you think Russia should just give that up.

Again, if we follow that irrepairably twisted logic of yours, Russia should occupy the whole Ukraine and at least half of Poland, try to invade Finland and the Baltic states, asap. What is the weather at your Mars residence today?

Uncle Wally
17-10-2014, 00:29
Again, if we follow that irrepairably twisted logic of yours, Russia should occupy the whole Ukraine and at least half of Poland, try to invade Finland and the Baltic states, asap. What is the weather at your Mars residence today?

No there is no need for that now but if Russia had to move her troops off that land it would be much harder to get it back. The Baltics will be a push over and Finland is not a big problem now. They have mostly jets and Russias S 400 can take care of that.
I have to ask you, were you ever in the army?

Russian Lad
17-10-2014, 06:50
No there is no need for that now but if Russia had to move her troops off that land it would be much harder to get it back. The Baltics will be a push over and Finland is not a big problem now. They have mostly jets and Russias S 400 can take care of that.
I have to ask you, were you ever in the army?

So, tell me why would Russia be kicked out from the Crimea (I assume you are talking about the Crimea, officially Russia doesn't have troops in the rest of Ukraine) if the contract for the fleet was till 2047? Secondly, how do you imagine Americans or anyone else settling there??? Didn't they tell you in the army about the Montreux Convention??? Finland and the Baltics would offer strategic interests, just as a half of Poland - they were all invaded by USSR before the Great Patriotic War. I feel like talking to a school kid who is skipping classes.
No, I wasn't in the army. See, I have honestly answered it. Now your turn - tell me about your education. Have you managed to graduate from the high school at least? I am not even asking about a college or a University, because it is obvious you never went beyond the high school. My only question is - how many years did you spend there?:)

fenrir
17-10-2014, 09:31
No there is no need for that now but if Russia had to move her troops off that land it would be much harder to get it back. The Baltics will be a push over and Finland is not a big problem now. They have mostly jets and Russias S 400 can take care of that.
I have to ask you, were you ever in the army?

You have no idea of what you are talking about. This isn't 1939-40. The Baltics and Finland have allies this time around. Estonia alone would field around 70,000 men at full mobilization and about half of them are trained in guerilla warfare and would be defending their home districts. The Finnish army would simply hand your heads to you. It's big, well-trained, highly motivated and would be defending its own turf. Regarding your lovely S400s, remember Russia would be the aggressor and would be running into Finnish air defenses, not the other way around.

Judge
17-10-2014, 11:37
To get this thread back from WW3:sunny:

With the price of oil tumbling,is having a strong $ helping to balance the Kremlins books....it would be another story if Russia was paid in rubles for it's oil and gas, isn't a weak currency usually a good thing for a exporting country?

Ok, I understand that this could have a knock on effect on other goods which Russia imports, but to just stick to oil/gas, a weak ruble is a good thing.

Suuryaa
17-10-2014, 11:48
So, tell me why would Russia be kicked out from the Crimea (I assume you are talking about the Crimea, officially Russia doesn't have troops in the rest of Ukraine) if the contract for the fleet was till 2047?

Ukrainians announced plans to annul that contract. On the same day the Crimea was seized by Russia.

AstarD
17-10-2014, 11:56
That was a quick reaction by Russia, then.

Suuryaa
17-10-2014, 12:15
That was a quick reaction by Russia, then.

Yes, it was. I was surprised myself. In the morning they say it, in the evening the military action begins. That is, of course, if the media gave true information. With piles of lies from all the media I read and see, i.e. Russian, Ukrainian, and Western, you can not be sure...

Armoured
17-10-2014, 12:33
With the price of oil tumbling,is having a strong $ helping to balance the Kremlins books....it would be another story if Russia was paid in rubles for it's oil and gas, isn't a weak currency usually a good thing for a exporting country?

The answer to that question is ambiguous, some think not. This guy argues not:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-ruble-s-senseless-and-harmful-devaluation/509557.html

In short, depends too much on what is imported/exported exactly to give a firm answer. As a general rule, a pure oil economy (say, like Qatar) would probably be harmed by devaluation. A 'mixed' economy (say, Canada) may be helped overall as it would help other manufactures compete again.

Russia is in between these two - those who argue that it is bad would say Russia's (net?) exports of manufactures are so low that it is worse. The answer would also depend on ability of economy to respond/adapt - i.e. institutions - which Gref, Kudrin, Ulukaev etc all say is just about as bad as it gets.

My own _guess_ - not that my guess matters - is that some devaluation would be normal for Russia in falling oil price environment and neutral or helpful, but that this has gone way beyond for 'other reasons.' And that ability to adapt is currently highly impaired.

Oh, and the benefit to the 'budget' is great - except that a huge amount of the foreign currency borrowing is state-owned entities, and very bad for them. In other words, the official budget is not showing the extent of the damage which is off-budget. Right now I think this difference is enormous.

I don't have figures but I think foreign borrowings of state-owned / contrlled entities may be 20-30% of GDP - so not small kartofel at all. (May be more or less, I'm kind of guessing, kind of going by memory).

Russian Lad
17-10-2014, 18:06
Ukrainians announced plans to annul that contract. On the same day the Crimea was seized by Russia.


The reaction was quick because everything was planned in advance. Making a politically motivated claim is one thing, having a law passed is another. You simply don't invade countries because a certain politician made a certain stupid claim. Besides, there were many Russian agents infiltrated into the highest Ukr ranks, there were a lot of planned provocations.
By the way, Lukashenko is saying Yanukovich was paying the Praviy Sektor, that's bombastic:
http://news.mail.ru/politics/19860298/?frommail=1

A new song for the Russian "patriots" from Leningrad:
Ленинград — Патриотка | Leningrad — I'm a true patriot - YouTube

Suuryaa
17-10-2014, 23:09
The reaction was quick because everything was planned in advance. Making a politically motivated claim is one thing, having a law passed is another.

Well, even I saw it coming. The new Ukrainian politicians were making bolder and bolder statements, and I was thinking at the time that soon they would try to annul the Crimean contract. So I think it was no surprise for the Russian decision makers, that's why everything happened so quickly.


You simply don't invade countries because a certain politician made a certain stupid claim.

Keeping in mind the importance of the Crimea for Russian security, it became possible. Then, again, it was their fault: you have to pay for your stupidity. It really looks like Russians used this claim as an excuse, but who provided them with it?


By the way, Lukashenko is saying Yanukovich was paying the Praviy Sektor, that's bombastic:
http://news.mail.ru/politics/19860298/?frommail=1

No one doubts the level of Yanukovich's sharpness of mind and integrity :).

Russian Lad
17-10-2014, 23:29
Keeping in mind the importance of the Crimea for Russian security, it became possible. Then, again, it was their fault: you have to pay for your stupidity. It really looks like Russians used this claim as an excuse, but who provided them with it?

Listen to what Zhirik says regularly. Once again - you don't invade foreign countries in violation of the treaties you signed yourself just because some politicians said something. This excuse exists only in the heads of many Russians like you (who don't know any better, having been brainwashed by the local propaganda) and the heads of the leaders of a few pariah states like the North Korea and Zimbabwe and Nicaragua. As to the civilized world, it is in shock and disbelief.
Not to mention that it was really insane - we have made over 30 million new enemies on our border, that's how most Ukrainians view us now, including millions of those who are Russian speaking Ukrainians there.


Keeping in mind the importance of the Crimea for Russian security

Can you please kindly elaborate as to why the Crimea (you probably mean Sevastopol since Russia has managed somehow to defend itself for the last 23 years while the Crimea has remained Ukrainian) is so crucial and 100% indispensable for the Russian security, bearing in mind that Russia has access to the Black Sea even without the Crimea and the Montreux Treaty, and also not forgetting about 2000 nuclear warheads in Russia?
That said, of course the world would be much safer for Russia if it was Russia written all over it. But even then we would still face a danger from extra-terrestrial life at a certain point.

Suuryaa
17-10-2014, 23:54
Listen to what Zhirik says regularly.

I'm not interested in clowns.


Once again - you don't invade foreign countries in violation of the treaties you signed yourself just because some politicians said something. This excuse exists only in the heads of many Russians like you

And I'm not Russian.


Can you please kindly elaborate as to why the Crimea is so crucial and 100% indispensable for the Russian security

As far as I remember, your father was in the army for a long time? I think he can explain much better than me.

Russian Lad
17-10-2014, 23:58
I'm not interested in clowns.

He is #3 most influential politician in Russia, with millions of votes behind him. You are not interested in him, but foreign powers have to take him seriously.


As far as I remember, your father was in the army for a long time? I think he can explain much better than me.

I have just asked, he said:
- I don't know, it is all Jewish games, we must restore USSR and build comminism.
As you see, it hasn't clarified matters, so please kindly support your claim with some info I can go by.


And I'm not Russian.

If you have the RF citizenship, you are Russian (россиянка). If not, what country are you from?

Uncle Wally
18-10-2014, 00:22
Listen to what Zhirik says regularly. Once again - you don't invade foreign countries in violation of the treaties you signed yourself just because some politicians said something. This excuse exists only in the heads of many Russians like you (who don't know any better, having been brainwashed by the local propaganda) and the heads of the leaders of a few pariah states like the North Korea and Zimbabwe and Nicaragua. As to the civilized world, it is in shock and disbelief.
Not to mention that it was really insane - we have made over 30 million new enemies on our border, that's how most Ukrainians view us now, including millions of those who are Russian speaking Ukrainians there.



Can you please kindly elaborate as to why the Crimea (you probably mean Sevastopol since Russia has managed somehow to defend itself for the last 23 years while the Crimea has remained Ukrainian) is so crucial and 100% indispensable for the Russian security, bearing in mind that Russia has access to the Black Sea even without the Crimea and the Montreux Treaty, and also not forgetting about 2000 nuclear warheads in Russia?
That said, of course the world would be much safer for Russia if it was Russia written all over it. But even then we would still face a danger from extra-terrestrial life at a certain point.


Sorry but it's American graffiti that's written all over the world with 130 bases in 190 countries. You think Russia is the danger? Wake up and smell the death and rotting corpses left by American imperialism. Yes a video


Genesis - Land Of Confusion [Official Music Video] - YouTube

Russian Lad
18-10-2014, 00:35
Sorry but it's American graffiti that's written all over the world with 130 bases in 190 countries. You think Russia is the danger? Wake up and smell the death and rotting corpses left by American imperialism. Yes a video

Once again, you cannot justify one wrong with another, real or perceived wrong. The US response has been amazingly moderate in Ukraine so far. I was half-expecting hundreds of NATO tanks to roll into the Western Ukraine back in March.

Uncle Wally
18-10-2014, 00:50
Once again, you cannot justify one wrong with another, real or perceived wrong. The US response has been amazingly moderate in Ukraine so far. I was half-expecting hundreds of NATO tanks to roll into the Western Ukraine back in March.


Ya! You're joking right? I hope so because America has way over reacted and is not only going to sink the economy of Russia but the EU and the rest of the world. This is only the begining buddy. Find out why Japan attacked America, not why America says but the real reason, oil the oil America cut off. It reminds me of my little brother who would do things to make me want to beat him, but my mom wouldn't see that, she would just see me beating the little bastard. It's the same thing going on here.

Uncle Wally
18-10-2014, 01:09
Oil rebounds after trading under $80

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-drops-further-as-markets-struggle-to-find-support-2014-10-16-3103512?siteid=yhoof2

fenrir
18-10-2014, 09:18
Ya! You're joking right? I hope so because America has way over reacted and is not only going to sink the economy of Russia but the EU and the rest of the world. This is only the begining buddy. Find out why Japan attacked America, not why America says but the real reason, oil the oil America cut off. It reminds me of my little brother who would do things to make me want to beat him, but my mom wouldn't see that, she would just see me beating the little bastard. It's the same thing going on here.

They fought with the Soviets first, then went after the US when that didn't work out.

bydand
18-10-2014, 09:48
Find out why Japan attacked America, not why America says but the real reason, oil the oil America cut off.

Yes, America and other countries effectively reduced oil to Japan, because Japan was raping and pillaging China, and snapping up Pacific islands left and right!

Who's cutting off oil/gas now?

Uncle Wally
18-10-2014, 15:42
Saudi, Kuwait Seen Curbing Oil Output at Opportune Time

North Sea Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, settled at $86.16 a barrel yesterday on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after slipping a day earlier to $82.60, the lowest level since November 2010.





http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/saudi-kuwait-seen-curbing-oil-output-at-opportune-time-.html

Nobbynumbnuts
18-10-2014, 16:32
Saudi, Kuwait Seen Curbing Oil Output at Opportune Time

North Sea Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, settled at $86.16 a barrel yesterday on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after slipping a day earlier to $82.60, the lowest level since November 2010.





http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/saudi-kuwait-seen-curbing-oil-output-at-opportune-time-.html

Thanks for the update Wally. Brilliant.
Time for a YouTube clip? :D

Uncle Wally
18-10-2014, 17:31
Thanks for the update Wally. Brilliant.
Time for a YouTube clip? :D


Why Not



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygvhYE5veKU