PDA

View Full Version : US to split into 6 separate parts in aftermath of economic meltdown?



Kvartiraokhotnik
25-11-2008, 21:32
Great article, but cant get on the Izvestia website to see the original version. Anyone got another link to the original?

The FINANCIAL, News That Makes Money, Business News & Multimedia - Russian analyst predicts decline and breakup of U.S. (http://www.finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25138&Itemid=1)

Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

''When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong. ''

The really interesting thing is the fact he mentions spring as . Everyone who is in a position to know in advance what takes place on the world stage is predicting an event in the next 6 months. Something to rock the world stage no doubt, will take place that buries the US economy for good. Another war in the middle east could be on the cards, or perhaps something closer to home.

schmidtskatze
25-11-2008, 21:59
but still it reads rather like a whish list from the old enemy. If you see how China is affected just because the US consumers stop buying their products shows that de-coupling economies in times of close international trade will always be a myth. Oil prices halfs - and Russia within 4 weeks can no longer defend its currency. Is this the strength he means. And look at it from a demographic perspective - i read somewhere that in 100 years Yemen has more inhabitants than Russia if things keep going like this... May not be too realistic - but I think its a point to consider...

Adamodeus
25-11-2008, 22:02
Thanks, interesting. Extremely far-fetched and predictably, Russia is named as the most likely candidate to replace the US on the world stage, but interesting nonetheless.

Populist stuff like this is gaining ground these days.

Surfsup37
25-11-2008, 22:09
So the Northern part of the US merges with Canada? :celebrate:

Ah, someone should tell him that Canada's population is less than NYC.

Thanks for the laugh. Of course, there is no crisis in Russia. :drink:

Kvartiraokhotnik
25-11-2008, 22:17
So the Northern part of the US merges with Canada? :celebrate:

Ah, someone should tell him that Canada's population is less than NYC.

Thanks for the laugh. Of course, there is no crisis in Russia. :drink:

And who said that?

I think the crisis is OBVIOUSLY happening in Russia, but i reckon Russia has the hard assets to cope with the crisis. I reckon China does also. I dont reckon the US or UK look good for hard assets, or the crisis.

Obviously im a little biased also. I live here, after all.

schmidtskatze
25-11-2008, 22:45
what's the "hard" asset? the rouble probably not. the oil? Whole Europe tries to get rid of dependence on Russia in 5-10 years with alternative energy sources / suppliers - so what's it worth then?

fenrir
25-11-2008, 23:19
Thanks for the laugh. This was a good joke by some half-whit pretending to know what he is talking about. He should be more worried about Russia breaking up and keeping the ruble from sliding too far.

Carbo
25-11-2008, 23:38
While not wanting to associate myself too closely with Fenrir's, sad as it makes me to say, as per usual hysterical and aggressive response, this guy knows nothing and has nothing of interest to say.

As one of its finest authors, Mark Twain, said, reports of America's death are greatly exaggerated.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is guilty of 'flavour of the month' thinking.

Remember, chaps, fashion fades and only style remains.

(PS I wonder if I could craft an entire post using just hackneyed, overused quotes?)

Adamodeus
26-11-2008, 00:57
what's the "hard" asset? the rouble probably not. the oil? Whole Europe tries to get rid of dependence on Russia in 5-10 years with alternative energy sources / suppliers - so what's it worth then?
Oh, boy, somebody here is an optimist! You shouldn't mistake wishful thinking for reality. Alternative energy sources in 5-10 years? Ha! Over OPEC's dead body. And do you honestly believe that Europe will give up the gas that is already flowing through a complex pipe network right this minute?

Oh, and incidentally, guys, have you heard about the latest round of Russian energy blackmail? Apparently, those Russian bastards want Ukraine to - oh, the humanity! - pay for its gas! And if Ukraine doesn't, Russia might - gasp! - turn off the tap! Those blackmailing Russkies have the audacity to demand money for their hydrocarbons - AGAIN! :mad: Will the impunity ever stop?!

Russian Lad
26-11-2008, 01:38
[-][I think the crisis is OBVIOUSLY happening in Russia, but i reckon Russia has the hard assets to cope with the crisis./-]

Well, Kvarti, here is an interesting thing. When someone claims the US does not have enough of hard assets one is forgetting the share of the US companies in many countries, Russia included. Take Lukoil, for example - 20% of it belongs to Conoco Philips. There are many undercarpet deals out there that are not largely advertised. So, I am not a big fan of the US imminent collapse theories. It will fall apart in due time, but not within the coming decade, at least. So, Fenrir, weirdly enough, can be supported by me for what he said above, though his joy will be a short lived one - that is, he will live to see the USA repeating the history of the USSR. All will be dished out in the due course of time, no rush. If Russia suffers, Fenrir, 20% of the US shares in the Russian company I mentioned will go bust, and do you think it will improve the US economy? It was just one little example. So, when snorting about the fate of Russia you are basically sawing off solid chunks of the US future as well.
It works the other way around, too. Basically, that's why this crisis is global - the economies do not function separately no more, and if we go down the drain, most likely we will do it together.

J.D.
26-11-2008, 06:09
The difference between the U.S. and the USSR is that most people in the U.S. think of themselves as Americans first and as Californiana, New Yorkers, etc. second. Or at the very least see them equally.
The article sounds like wishful thinking on the part of America bashers.

fenrir
26-11-2008, 11:14
[-][I think the crisis is OBVIOUSLY happening in Russia, but i reckon Russia has the hard assets to cope with the crisis./-]

Well, Kvarti, here is an interesting thing. When someone claims the US does not have enough of hard assets one is forgetting the share of the US companies in many countries, Russia included. Take Lukoil, for example - 20% of it belongs to Conoco Philips. There are many undercarpet deals out there that are not largely advertised. So, I am not a big fan of the US imminent collapse theories. It will fall apart in due time, but not within the coming decade, at least. So, Fenrir, weirdly enough, can be supported by me for what he said above, though his joy will be a short lived one - that is, he will live to see the USA repeating the history of the USSR. All will be dished out in the due course of time, no rush. If Russia suffers, Fenrir, 20% of the US shares in the Russian company I mentioned will go bust, and do you think it will improve the US economy? It was just one little example. So, when snorting about the fate of Russia you are basically sawing off solid chunks of the US future as well.
It works the other way around, too. Basically, that's why this crisis is global - the economies do not function separately no more, and if we go down the drain, most likely we will do it together.

Believe it or not, I don't want to actually see Russia fall apart or suffer a financial collapse. I would like to see all the arrogance and swagger toned down a bit, but you all wish the same about the US (and should get that wish under Obama). In the long-term, I still think that the only real hope for the world lies in the US and Russia working together on all levels.

Gypsy
26-11-2008, 12:38
While not wanting to associate myself too closely with Fenrir's, sad as it makes me to say, as per usual hysterical and aggressive response, this guy knows nothing and has nothing of interest to say.

As one of its finest authors, Mark Twain, said, reports of America's death are greatly exaggerated.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is guilty of 'flavour of the month' thinking.

Remember, chaps, fashion fades and only style remains.

(PS I wonder if I could craft an entire post using just hackneyed, overused quotes?)
carbo - in the 2 and a half years I have "known" Fenrir on this forum I have never known him to post hysterical or aggressive posts.

In marked contrast to the original poster of this thread he has never been insulting and his posts are well thought through expositions of his beliefs. I do not agree with many of them, very very few in fact, and we have disagreed very much more than we have ever agreed,our politics are at polar extremes, but he is honest and fair, and if there is a problem or fault in your argument he will pick you up on it.

That does not make him aggressive or hysterical.

What is repulsive is the original poster here who takes a great delight in the misfortunes of others -and I do not mean US bankers - but the victims of the financial crisis. It is not amusing or even very human to take pleasure as he does from the suffering of others - but nothing new there eh, from the guy who posted a threat to a very brave young woman who had shared her experience of being attacked at night, that "the next time you walk under a bridge I'll be waiting".

Regarding the original post and the article from the good professor; it completely ignores one of the driving factors in US politics and that is the belief in their union. It is almost religious.

The economic conditions may be there which would make it attractive for some rabble rouser to try and get California,say, to cede from the union, "why do we pay all these taxes to support those in (fill in state) who don't want to work, we're off" etc., but I doubt he'd get very far in a mostly Democrat state that just sent their man to the White House.

BeachBum
26-11-2008, 12:55
While not wanting to associate myself too closely with Fenrir's, sad as it makes me to say, as per usual hysterical and aggressive response, this guy knows nothing and has nothing of interest to say.

As one of its finest authors, Mark Twain, said, reports of America's death are greatly exaggerated.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is guilty of 'flavour of the month' thinking.

Remember, chaps, fashion fades and only style remains.

(PS I wonder if I could craft an entire post using just hackneyed, overused quotes?)
Mark Twain was a posturing pompous horses-ass. I liken his works to nothing more than intellectual posting of the times. Somethind akin to Creation Theorist rant. Read his works now and it has all the depth of a Tom Clancy Novel,,,Typical elitist response from Mr Carbo..... I'll bet you also think the greatest movie ever made was the Orson Welles 'Dog' by the name of CItizen Kane. Arguably one of the most boring movies ever made. But everybody always quotes it as 'The greatest Movie' .. Why,,because they never had to sit through it.. So they simply spout off at the horn...... Just like Mark Twain.... Simply a long-winded, bogin droopy breast of an anthor... His words hang like a rank old Babuskka boob...

Gypsy
26-11-2008, 12:58
Mark Twain was a posturing pompous horses-ass. I liken his works to nothing more than intellectual posting of the times. Somethind akin to Creation Theorist rant. Read his works now and it has all the depth of a Tom Clancy Novel,,,Typical elitist response from Mr Carbo..... I'll bet you also think the greatest movie ever made was the Orson Welles 'Dog' by the name of CItizen Kane. Arguably one of the most boring movies ever made. But everybody always quotes it as 'The greatest Movie' .. Why,,because they never had to sit through it.. So they simply spout off at the horn...... Just like Mark Twain.... Simply a long-winded, bogin droopy breast of an anthor... His words hang like a rank old Babuskka boob...
He could turn a phrase though - could be quite witty sometimes.

Totally agree about Citizen kane though, a real 3 legged donkey of a film. Long does not equal art.

J.D.
26-11-2008, 13:55
Citizen Kane was not the greatest film because of its content. Although many ignorant people trying to sound sophisticated think that is the case. It was great because it introduced new techniques which are now quite standard.
Perhaps Mark Twain was a bit the same. He has hundreds of quotes, many quite good, and a lot are rather lackluster. Combined with his fame as a writer only the best are remembered. But he did pioneer a new technique in writing.

Reverend
26-11-2008, 14:56
[-][I think the crisis is OBVIOUSLY happening in Russia, but i reckon Russia has the hard assets to cope with the crisis./-]

So, I am not a big fan of the US imminent collapse theories. It will fall apart in due time, but not within the coming decade, at least. . The population of the USA is actually a lot more unified than that of Russia or China. If these two countries hold together it will be due to military force. White/Red Russians consider anyone who is not Orthodox and Slavic as non-Russian. Hardly good for unity. Look at the range of ethnic groups and languages in Russia. Great diversity but hardly any unity. Not to mention a steadily declining population with barely enough to hold the existing land mass.

Russia is fast running out of "hard assets" (except the oil production though it is declining) and the rouble is being devalued as you read this.

Carbo
26-11-2008, 15:04
Mark Twain was a posturing pompous horses-ass. I liken his works to nothing more than intellectual posting of the times. Somethind akin to Creation Theorist rant. Read his works now and it has all the depth of a Tom Clancy Novel,,,Typical elitist response from Mr Carbo..... I'll bet you also think the greatest movie ever made was the Orson Welles 'Dog' by the name of CItizen Kane. Arguably one of the most boring movies ever made. But everybody always quotes it as 'The greatest Movie' .. Why,,because they never had to sit through it.. So they simply spout off at the horn...... Just like Mark Twain.... Simply a long-winded, bogin droopy breast of an anthor... His words hang like a rank old Babuskka boob...
Well, I do like Citizen Kane, but my favourite movies are On the Waterfront and The Hustler.

I don't quite know what was so objectionable about my post, but do I really come across as an 'elitist'?

Anyway, back to the point. The chap who is making headlines with his views on the break up of America is, in my view, wide of the mark on so many points that is doesn't bear going through them all.

However, his views are symptomatic of a wider held trend to believe that America is on the decline.

I don't quite buy it. While other countries have come up as relatively powerful contenders, and while America is certainly in a bad way, this is nothing that hasn't happened before in the last 80 years.

We under-estimate the strength of their economy. It’s as if we've all bought into this "America's fault; big problems for America but not us" mumbo jumbo from the EU and Russia.


(EDIT: Ooooh.. I've been thinking now about other films I like. MAybe a topic for the cafe? I like Traffic, Once Upona Time in America, Breakfast at Tiffany's, It's a Wonderful Life, American Beauty... and more. Maybe we should start a thread.)

BeachBum
26-11-2008, 15:22
Well, I do like Citizen Kane, but my favourite movies are On the Waterfront and The Hustler.

I don't quite know what was so objectionable about my post, but do I really come across as an 'elitist'?

Anyway, back to the point. The chap who is making headlines with his views on the break up of America is, in my view, wide of the mark on so many points that is doesn't bear going through them all.

However, his views are symptomatic of a wider held trend to believe that America is on the decline.

I don't quite buy it. While other countries have come up as relatively powerful contenders, and while America is certainly in a bad way, this is nothing that hasn't happened before in the last 80 years.

We under-estimate the strength of their economy. It’s as if we've all bought into this "America's fault; big problems for America but not us" mumbo jumbo from the EU and Russia.


(EDIT: Ooooh.. I've been thinking now about other films I like. MAybe a topic for the cafe? I like Traffic, Once Upona Time in America, Breakfast at Tiffany's, It's a Wonderful Life, American Beauty... and more. Maybe we should start a thread.)
Yeah You named some of the best. Breakfast at Tiffanys with the stunning youthful Audrey Hepburn, Traffic was also a winner, and Yes Its a wonderful Life. Now those are classics. Add to the List of classics: North by Northwest, Day the Earth Stood Still, The War of the Worlds (not the Tom Cruise dog), Ben Hur, Three Coins in the Fountain, Houseboat, Roman Holiday, This Island Earth, The Time Machine, Maltese Falcon, Treasure of the Sierra Madre, The Mummy and Not so classic Classics: The Fearless Vampire Killers, Omega Man, Network, many more...

Yes lets start a post on this topic ... Classic and not so classic movies.. the best or the best!

elis
26-11-2008, 15:50
It's a Wonderful Life, American Beauty... and more. Maybe we should start a thread.)

"Zuzu's petals!!"

IGIT
26-11-2008, 16:00
pardon me if I am wrong. A country that cannot sustain its own currency, how can it become a global financial regulator like the US?

The USSR should not in any way be compared to the USA. The mode of governance and thinking was/is different.

Does the author of that article mean to say that the US is having a bad day and its all rossy in russia?

This economic crisis is indeed global and ONLY GOD knows when it will end.
But we all PRAY for a brighter future.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 19:02
What is repulsive is the original poster here who takes a great delight in the misfortunes of others -and I do not mean US bankers - but the victims of the financial crisis. It is not amusing or even very human to take pleasure as he does from the suffering of others - but nothing new there eh, from the guy who posted a threat to a very brave young woman who had shared her experience of being attacked at night, that "the next time you walk under a bridge I'll be waiting".




This is the thanks I get for warning everyone, 2 years ago, that the dollar will crash cos the fed has printed too much money out of thin air....Sheesh! :thumbdwn:

Its hardly that I take pleasure in others misfortune....More that I take pleasure from sharing information with others.

As for the part concerning the girl, I expect the mods to remove it as soon as possible. THIS IS SLANDER, and something which i consider the lowest of the low.

YOU ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME DECEITFUL AND COWARDLY PATH AS YOUR PREDECESSOR

So Tsiganin....please please please do us all a favour and comment on the thread and not lie about peoples character! Thats what a debate is. Its not a slagging off match.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 19:15
Thanks for the laugh. This was a good joke by some half-whit pretending to know what he is talking about. He should be more worried about Russia breaking up and keeping the ruble from sliding too far.

Yes.....I seem to recall you saying something RATHER SIMILAR when you were warned a couple of years back that the American economy was absolutely screwed....Thanks for the laugh flathunter, but no-one believes you....:mml:

Gypsy
26-11-2008, 19:28
Ooohhh. Big purple letters! Been taking classes?Very impressive.

For it to be slander (actually defamation,the distinction between slander and libel died years ago) what is said needs to be untrue.

Sadly for you it is not. In a thread 18 months ago which drifted into discussing torture you posted that you would like to stick hot spikes into someone's eyes if you felt they deserved it and that you would feel good about it. A lovely lady I know posted about how dreadful that was and that if you had ever been in a position where someone was exploiting their power over you, as she had been when she was attacked in the dark on the way home one night,you would not write such vile things.It took realguts for her to write that,not many women would own up on a forum to having been attacked - guts that you conspicuously lack.

Your response, among other nastiness was to say that she should be careful because it might be you waiting under that bridge. You mentioned bridges because in another thread at that time she had said how she felt unsafe walking under the bridges on her way home.

And again you did not predict anything. You did NOT predict a liquidity crisis; you posted a load of nonsense that you clearly did not understand saying that the US would soon be bankrupt. As we see, it is not bankrupt. And if you are not taking pleasure from the financial crisis then you need to change your writing style as that is how it comes across in all of your recent posts.

Have you paid off your bet to the two posters who correctly answered the question about defence of the Pentagon?

Thought not.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 19:43
Ooohhh. Big purple letters! Been taking classes?Very impressive.

For it to be slander (actually defamation,the distinction between slander and libel died years ago) what is said needs to be untrue.

Sadly for you it is not. In a thread 18 months ago which drifted into discussing torture you posted that you would like to stick hot spikes into someone's eyes if you felt they deserved it and that you would feel good about it. A lovely lady I know posted about how dreadful that was and that if you had ever been in a position where someone was exploiting their power over you, as she had been when she was attacked in the dark on the way home one night,you would not write such vile things.It took realguts for her to write that,not many women would own up on a forum to having been attacked - guts that you conspicuously lack.

Your response, among other nastiness was to say that she should be careful because it might be you waiting under that bridge. You mentioned bridges because in another thread at that time she had said how she felt unsafe walking under the bridges on her way home.

And again you did not predict anything. You did NOT predict a liquidity crisis; you posted a load of nonsense that you clearly did not understand saying that the US would soon be bankrupt. As we see, it is not bankrupt. And if you are not taking pleasure from the financial crisis then you need to change your writing style as that is how it comes across in all of your recent posts.

Have you paid off your bet to the two posters who correctly answered the question about defence of the Pentagon?

Thought not.

NOT TRUE GYPSY!
PURE FANTASY, and yes, CHARACTER DEFAMATION which I believe is BANNED on this website.

The truth, as i've said on another post, is that this girl (who never said ANYTHING about being attacked!!! These are your LIES) said ''I wouldnt wanna meet you in a dark alley late at night,'' after one of my posts (hot spikes in peoples eyes??!!!??? WTF???? just one of my typical posts! They tend to scare many, ive noticed. But they aint masochistic or sadistic!). I replied ''So it was you i met at Kuznetsky most the other night...let me apologise for not wearing any underwear''...you know...making a bad joke. Forgive me please Gypsy!

Only cowards have a need to recourse to lying. Honesty is a form of strength.

schmidtskatze
26-11-2008, 20:37
Oh, boy, somebody here is an optimist! You shouldn't mistake wishful thinking for reality. Alternative energy sources in 5-10 years? Ha! Over OPEC's dead body. And do you honestly believe that Europe will give up the gas that is already flowing through a complex pipe network right this minute?


I agree that in the short run you won't see the effect. But why are Germany and France building huge LPG terminals and LPG & LNG tankers are constructed like mad by shipyards? Right - because Europe wants to have the choice. After all - all the oil will not help you if it's worth just 40 USD a barell - that's too little for Russia to keep subsidising its other industry (which is still not producing anyhthing you could sell easily on the world market).

And what's complex at the network? It goes in on the one side - and has many offtakers with a meter at the border - so it's easy to see where the gas was coming from and going to.

schmidtskatze
26-11-2008, 20:52
Maybe the one or the other may be interested in the report published by the national intelligence agency just a couple of days ago named "global trends 2025".

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (http://www.dni.gov/reports.htm)

It takes some time to read it - but very interesting though.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 20:54
I agree that in the short run you won't see the effect. But why are Germany and France building huge LPG terminals and LPG & LNG tankers are constructed like mad by shipyards? Right - because Europe wants to have the choice. After all - all the oil will not help you if it's worth just 40 USD a barell - that's too little for Russia to keep subsidising its other industry (which is still not producing anyhthing you could sell easily on the world market).

And what's complex at the network? It goes in on the one side - and has many offtakers with a meter at the border - so it's easy to see where the gas was coming from and going to.

I would really love to see some countries go full steam ahead on real aternative energy sources. But as you rightly state, they don't seem to be doing so, what with building all these Liquefied Petroleum Gas terminals!!!!

There are so many alternatives, but the only way to get them spread is at a local level. Globalists arent interested in individual self sufficiency.

Carbo
26-11-2008, 20:57
This is the thanks I get for warning everyone, 2 years ago, that the dollar will crash cos the fed has printed too much money out of thin air....Sheesh! :thumbdwn:

Its hardly that I take pleasure in others misfortune....More that I take pleasure from sharing information with others.

As for the part concerning the girl, I expect the mods to remove it as soon as possible. THIS IS SLANDER, and something which i consider the lowest of the low.

YOU ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME DECEITFUL AND COWARDLY PATH AS YOUR PREDECESSOR

So Tsiganin....please please please do us all a favour and comment on the thread and not lie about peoples character! Thats what a debate is. Its not a slagging off match.
Excuse me, but has the dollar not spent the last several months rising against all possible comparisons: Euro, Yen, CHF, Pound, gold, oil?

Of course that is not true for each of those comparisons right at this very moment, (before you start trawling), but the general trend is true.

Why is is? Well, not only is your example blown out of the water, but the reason for this blows your overall theory apart, too. The reason for the dollar's resurgence is twofold: one, financial institutions require dollars to exfiltrate themselves from positions, redemptions and liquidity (that old reserve status, I'm afraid), and second, the flight to safety, as investors look to dump money in the safest cash and the safest government bonds.

Hear that? The flight to safety. SAFETY. Safest. Safe.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 21:08
Excuse me, but has the dollar not spent the last several months rising against all possible comparisons: Euro, Yen, CHF, Pound, gold, oil?

Of course that is not true for each of those comparisons right at this very moment, (before you start trawling), but the general trend is true.

Why is is? Well, not only is your example blown out of the water, but the reason for this blows your overall theory apart, too. The reason for the dollar's resurgence is twofold: one, financial institutions require dollars to exfiltrate themselves from positions, redemptions and liquidity (that old reserve status, I'm afraid), and second, the flight to safety, as investors look to dump money in the safest cash and the safest government bonds.

Hear that? The flight to safety. SAFETY. Safest. Safe.

Your in a safe place Carbo...don't worry, everything is calm.

I'm staking a second prediction, and its not mine really...I cant take the credit for it. Its Joe Bidens, Madelaine Albrights, Brezinskis...everyone is saying it. Not just Panarin. There will be a GENERATED crisis, and I believe this will bury the dollar. Lets give it a year shall we??? Though many are saying sooner.....

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 21:19
Citigroup Failure Imminent | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/citigroup-failure-imminent-6-28244)

schmidtskatze
26-11-2008, 21:33
Excuse me, but has the dollar not spent the last several months rising against all possible comparisons: Euro, Yen, CHF, Pound, gold, oil?

Of course that is not true for each of those comparisons right at this very moment, (before you start trawling), but the general trend is true.

Why is is? Well, not only is your example blown out of the water, but the reason for this blows your overall theory apart, too. The reason for the dollar's resurgence is twofold: one, financial institutions require dollars to exfiltrate themselves from positions, redemptions and liquidity (that old reserve status, I'm afraid), and second, the flight to safety, as investors look to dump money in the safest cash and the safest government bonds.

Hear that? The flight to safety. SAFETY. Safest. Safe.

And what if now more and more have to server margin calls and have to sell the T-Bonds they bought to do so? I guess he safety gets quite cheap then :) Remember, Russia was a major investor in the US debt. So they may just replace sovereign paper with sovereign money (which should be the same if you earn your yield from the FX movements). But this deserves no value uplift in general. It just throughs the burden to deleverage the economy to the US sovereign - as they try to do with the trillions of USD they mobilise.

The good thing - money is never lost (apart from inflation of course). In nominal terms it's just with someone else.:mml:

schmidtskatze
26-11-2008, 21:43
Your in a safe place Carbo...don't worry, everything is calm.

I'm staking a second prediction, and its not mine really...I cant take the credit for it. Its Joe Bidens, Madelaine Albrights, Brezinskis...everyone is saying it. Not just Panarin. There will be a GENERATED crisis, and I believe this will bury the dollar. Lets give it a year shall we??? Though many are saying sooner.....

Relative? So RUB vs. USD? I bet against you. In relative terms the US is still better positioned than Russia. And the world also buys gas in USD - not in RUB. So the only valuable thing that can be exported gives USD - but they cannot export both: value and currency. That's really what is amazing with the US: They manage to make the whole world finance their trade deficit. Pretty smart though!

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 22:15
Relative? So RUB vs. USD? I bet against you. In relative terms the US is still better positioned than Russia. And the world also buys gas in USD - not in RUB. So the only valuable thing that can be exported gives USD - but they cannot export both: value and currency. That's really what is amazing with the US: They manage to make the whole world finance their trade deficit. Pretty smart though!

Thats precisely what I think will change soon...the dollar being replaced by other strong currencies....

Carbo
26-11-2008, 22:21
Your in a safe place Carbo...don't worry, everything is calm.

I'm staking a second prediction, and its not mine really...I cant take the credit for it. Its Joe Bidens, Madelaine Albrights, Brezinskis...everyone is saying it. Not just Panarin. There will be a GENERATED crisis, and I believe this will bury the dollar. Lets give it a year shall we??? Though many are saying sooner.....
But who would gain out of burying the dollar? A terrorist environment or totally rogue state like Iran or Venuzuela, perhaps, but not the usual suspects like China and Russia.

Kvartiraokhotnik
26-11-2008, 22:26
But who would gain out of burying the dollar? A terrorist environment or totally rogue state like Iran or Venuzuela, perhaps, but not the usual suspects like China and Russia.

The globalist elites who want a world central bank and currency. They will benefit. They will have complete control of the world economy, and continue their fractional reserve banking scam, hoping that as some ''transhumanists'' have predicted, the human race will split into 2...cyber elites and plebs.

Russian Lad
27-11-2008, 00:19
"In the long-term, I still think that the only real hope for the world lies in the US and Russia working together on all levels."

Exactly, Fenrir. That's why I am not exactly happy neither with the Russian, nor with the US government.

"The population of the USA is actually a lot more unified than that of Russia or China. If these two countries hold together it will be due to military force. White/Red Russians consider anyone who is not Orthodox and Slavic as non-Russian. Hardly good for unity. Look at the range of ethnic groups and languages in Russia. Great diversity but hardly any unity. Not to mention a steadily declining population with barely enough to hold the existing land mass."

It is an artificial unity, Reverend. What is so binding between a black semi-hobo living from hand to mouth in a shack in the suburb of Birmingham, Alabama (I saw those shacks and talked to those people, so do not tell me I read about it in Soviet textbooks) and the glamorous Britney Spears? Or Bill Gates? The flag? The anthem? The bubble gum or the hamburger? I lived in the US and I was dumbfounded by the striking similarities between the modern US and the USSR, the country that did not exist by that time. The same political correctness, the desire not to say something you will regret later, strict punishment for peeing in public. All empires die, the US will be an exception?
And again, here you sort of demonstrate the Western arrogance (and ignorance) when you are talking about Russia not being able to live on or lacking unity. It has existed for centuries, with its ups and downs, and the US is, historically, a nascent nation that is yet to prove its long-term viability. I am not saying it is bad, it is just the fact. So, you better reconsider your harsh stance on Russia.
And again, I lived in a muslim part of Russia (the Tartar region), and non-militant muslims are the nicest people on Earth. 40% of the Russian army is muslim. Chechens were fighting against Georgian US mercenaries in South Ossetia. Talk about unity:). The unity here is not always voluntary, but it is enough to carry on.

Gypsy
27-11-2008, 00:55
"In the long-term, I still think that the only real hope for the world lies in the US and Russia working together on all levels."

Exactly, Fenrir. That's why I am not exactly happy neither with the Russian, nor with the US government.

"The population of the USA is actually a lot more unified than that of Russia or China. If these two countries hold together it will be due to military force. White/Red Russians consider anyone who is not Orthodox and Slavic as non-Russian. Hardly good for unity. Look at the range of ethnic groups and languages in Russia. Great diversity but hardly any unity. Not to mention a steadily declining population with barely enough to hold the existing land mass."

It is an artificial unity, Reverend. What is so binding between a black semi-hobo living from hand to mouth in a shack in the suburb of Birmingham, Alabama (I saw those shacks and talked to those people, so do not tell me I read about it in Soviet textbooks) and the glamorous Britney Spears? Or Bill Gates? The flag? The anthem? The bubble gum or the hamburger? I lived in the US and I was dumbfounded by the striking similarities between the modern US and the USSR, the country that did not exist by that time. The same political correctness, the desire not to say something you will regret later, strict punishment for peeing in public. All empires die, the US will be an exception?
And again, here you sort of demonstrate the Western arrogance (and ignorance) when you are talking about Russia not being able to live on or lacking unity. It has existed for centuries, with its ups and downs, and the US is, historically, a nascent nation that is yet to prove its long-term viability. I am not saying it is bad, it is just the fact. So, you better reconsider your harsh stance on Russia.
And again, I lived in a muslim part of Russia (the Tartar region), and non-militant muslims are the nicest people on Earth. 40% of the Russian army is muslim. Chechens were fighting against Georgian US mercenaries in South Ossetia. Talk about unity:). The unity here is not always voluntary, but it is enough to carry on.
I take your point RL but with the election of Obama those in the shanties now have hope.

Education was a pretty hard sell while GWB and his criminal gang were in power. After all if they can get away with criminal activity why not us?

Now a black man has become president and teachers and authority figures can sell education as a way out of permanent poverty. No black lad ina ghetto can now say that the system won't work forhim so why bother.

I'm not saying it will be easy,bt they have a chance now.

The original article is just so much rubbish it doesn't actually merit the time spent on it so far.

Russia is held together by corruption, parents know that the way to progress is to get their kids into the civil service not business. and they will pay to get their kids good exam results.

The system such as it is is ultimately doomed, it is impossible to reform while those at the top are making the most from it.

In 5 years the US will yet again be far far ahead of Russia.

is4fun
27-11-2008, 01:11
The globalist elites who want a world central bank and currency. They will benefit. They will have complete control of the world economy, and continue their fractional reserve banking scam, hoping that as some ''transhumanists'' have predicted, the human race will split into 2...cyber elites and plebs.

I'm already a Pleb. Too F.F.!

Russian Lad
27-11-2008, 02:11
with the election of Obama those in the shanties now have hope.

Depends on what price he had to pay to be elected, I remember he had a lot of secret meetings with the mighty and powerful. What struck me as weird was that he lost in some of the states that are predominantly black.
I do not mind the US being ahead of Russia, just as long as you have a balanced and fair government, not the crooks that arm countries like Georgia trying to spread influence with all the means possible. This behavior is very much like the one of an acne-challenged teenager who has just reached his puberty and wants to shag everyone in sight and pass his semen along, accosting his victims in dark park alleys, if I may indulge in such a vivid analogy:). I certainly do not picture Russia a big success with our current government walking the point, no way. You are right about corruption here, but I am getting a very distinct feeling that in the US you have it galore, too, with the only difference that it flourishes only in the top echelons of decision-makers, just like what we had in the USSR, rings a trenchant bell to me. Capitalism is an unfair system that will cease to exist sooner or later. Communism was unfair, too. Capitalism-based socialism (let's call this system casolism:))) may be the future, the models like in Sweden or in Denmark, with slight modifications.
At the pace that the world is going, though, we may not have either Russia or the US in the traditional sense, just a radioctave wasteland. I appreciate the brave spirit, of course. But where was Bruce Willis when the Towers were hit?

Gypsy
27-11-2008, 03:58
You may be right RL, I hope not and regarding the US I doubt it. It is undeniably corrupt at its highest levels and a system that relies on such vast injections of money; hundreds of millions of dollars to get elected cannot reasonably be called democratic: but,they have just elected a young, intelligent, charismatic black man and I have hope.

Re your system of "casolism" with Sweden etc as the model. It is a no brainer, it has to come even to the US. Even there they must eventually see that it is cheaper to have a proper social system than the current mess they have, not to mention fairer. Do not think capitalism and socialsim are opposites, they sit together very well (as you have noted in western european social democracy) as Paul Foot, an unreconstructed, far left socialist said, "capitalism is by far the best method yet invented for creating wealth, but it needs a socialist program to look after those unable to benefit from it."

Capitalism is an economic system, socialism a political one.

As I have said many times, I believe in people, I believe the vast majority are essentially good, and want to do the right things, and with Obama I have hope.

Russia, sadly I cannot see a way forward. How can the governing elite reform themselves? Why? Russian people do not seem to care, just want to jump on the bandwagon.

Kvartiraokhotnik
27-11-2008, 06:49
As I have said many times, I believe in people, I believe the vast majority are essentially good, and want to do the right things, and with Obama I have hope.



It would seem that the crooked path of deception, starts with self deception....

Carbo
27-11-2008, 09:11
And what if now more and more have to server margin calls and have to sell the T-Bonds they bought to do so? I guess he safety gets quite cheap then :) Remember, Russia was a major investor in the US debt. So they may just replace sovereign paper with sovereign money (which should be the same if you earn your yield from the FX movements). But this deserves no value uplift in general. It just throughs the burden to deleverage the economy to the US sovereign - as they try to do with the trillions of USD they mobilise.

The good thing - money is never lost (apart from inflation of course). In nominal terms it's just with someone else.:mml:
I don't think it's possible to loan money to buy t-bonds. How could it be? In that sense there are no margin calls.

Of course, the real danger is if several countries refuse to keep financing America's current account deficit by buying bonds. In that case you really would have a huge run on the dollar and the US economy would be up the creek without a paddle. But, you see, these countries that could do that have a massive incentive not to do so -- they hold, between them, trillions of dollars in dollars. Messing with the US in thisway would impoverish them.

AstroNoodle
27-11-2008, 11:05
The US is not going to break up into six parts, especially since everyone else needs a way to keep America buying all the junk they make.

And there are still ways to make money. If gas stays down, and it will, people will be able to afford to get to their new, lower paying jobs.

Plus, people who are enterprising find ways to work a lot of times. I talked to a man who made seven hundred fifty dollars putting up Christmas lights, and that was before lunchtime.

It is still tough times in the neighborhood.

btw, Babylon is broken into three parts in Revelation. That is not now though.

Gypsy
27-11-2008, 11:26
I don't think it's possible to loan money to buy t-bonds. How could it be? In that sense there are no margin calls.

Of course, the real danger is if several countries refuse to keep financing America's current account deficit by buying bonds. In that case you really would have a huge run on the dollar and the US economy would be up the creek without a paddle. But, you see, these countries that could do that have a massive incentive not to do so -- they hold, between them, trillions of dollars in dollars. Messing with the US in thisway would impoverish them.
Exactly!

Thank you Carbo.

schmidtskatze
27-11-2008, 22:03
Thats precisely what I think will change soon...the dollar being replaced by other strong currencies....

OK - let's go for 1 year (I think you indicated already 6 months before?) and 1 beer. :11157: I bet against you that the world does not get de-dollarised in that period and add that the RUB will not appreciate above the level vs. the USD it had COB today.

This would require world trade to change over night and a complete shift of financial markets. Prefereably I take a German beer then, please!

Gypsy
27-11-2008, 22:06
OK - let's go for 1 year (I think you indicated already 6 months before?) and 1 beer. :11157: I bet against you that the world does not get de-dollarised in that period and add that the RUB will not appreciate above the level vs. the USD it had COB today.

This would require world trade to change over night and a complete shift of financial markets. Prefereably I take a German beer then, please!
You're wasting yourtime -he's a welsher. When he loses bets he changes the rules. You won't get paid.

schmidtskatze
27-11-2008, 22:19
You're wasting yourtime -he's a welsher. When he loses bets he changes the rules. You won't get paid.

You won a beer due from him and didn't get it? What a shame! And I was about to sell it short already!

Carbo
27-11-2008, 23:34
Exactly!

Thank you Carbo.
Thanks, Gypsy.

People sit there with the smug 'knowledge' that Abdullah bin Aziz Al Saud, Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin could between them break the dollar, as if they have some secret 'insider' information of impending doom. It's a pub favourite.

Of course, this fact is a fact, but only with a supermeganormous caveat. They could break the dollar. They could do it tomorrow if they wanted. But, you see, if they're going to dump the dollar, they need somebody to buy it on the other end, and as we all know that an increase in supply and a stable demand is going to bring down prices, it is clear that they would not be able to dump several trillion dollars worth of something onto the market all at once and expect the price to stay the same.

In effect, they would impoverish themselves. Let's say China decided to switch it's trillion dollars or so of reserves into something else -- gold, euros, oil, Zimbabwean dollars, whatever -- not only would the price they get for the later batches they sell be at heavy losses, but they also hold a vast range of securities -- t-bonds, AAA bonds (and probably below), and probably equities -- that earn them money in dollars. So that'd screw them too. And then, they'd be screwed a third time, because with a worthless dollar, US manufacturing would become super competitive and gouge the market for many Chinese gods. Since China is an export economy (like the other great dollar holders), that would do them good and proper.

Of course, if they wanted to cut off their noses to spite their faces, they could, but, really, they're over a barrel.

Gypsy
27-11-2008, 23:38
Thanks, Gypsy.

People sit there with the smug 'knowledge' that Abdullah bin Aziz Al Saud, Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin could between them break the dollar, as if they have some secret 'insider' information of impending doom. It's a pub favourite.

Of course, this fact is a fact, but only with a supermeganormous caveat. They could break the dollar. They could do it tomorrow if they wanted. But, you see, if they're going to dump the dollar, they need somebody to buy it on the other end, and as we all know that an increase in supply and a stable demand is going to bring down prices, it is clear that they would not be able to dump several trillion dollars worth of something onto the market all at once and expect the price to stay the same.

In effect, they would impoverish themselves. Let's say China decided to switch it's trillion dollars or so of reserves into something else -- gold, euros, oil, Zimbabwean dollars, whatever -- not only would the price they get for the later batches they sell be at heavy losses, but they also hold a vast range of securities -- t-bonds, AAA bonds (and probably below), and probably equities -- that earn them money in dollars. So that'd screw them too. And then, they'd be screwed a third time, because with a worthless dollar, US manufacturing would become super competitive and gouge the market for many Chinese gods. Since China is an export economy (like the other great dollar holders), that would do them good and proper.

Of course, if they wanted to cut off their noses to spite their faces, they could, but, really, they're over a barrel.
It is the Second Law of Banking. You owe the bank $10k you have a problem. You owe the bank $10m the bank has a problem.

Kraven Morehead
28-11-2008, 00:07
I was reading Peter Schiff's comments on the US Economy (he was the one who predicted the collapse in 2006). He comments that the Americans are doing the wrong thing. But Giving the people more money to blow on consumer goods or over inflated the home prices is not the solution. But what is needed is a downgrade of the economy and to look to be more effective and efficient productivity. Doing business in the USA can be quite hair pulling experience with its bureaucracy and regulation to support ill fitted legal system. I say this, because USA is producing more non value added jobs then value added jobs.Aka Lawyers than Engineers. People must save and place their money in the entrepreneurial spirit, not just hoping to sue people.

Russia, well bureaucracy and politics have killed this country and will keep on killing this country. despite vast amounts of wealth in the land, people do not risk spending capital here, because they can lose it with a flick of Putin's pen. See what happened in Sakahlin Islands and BP-TNK and Aerostar Hotel. The oligarch themselves do not spend money on exploration and it is the reason why Oil production in Russia is stagnating. Manufacturing facilities are not being constructed like they should despite cheap educated work force and vast resources. What is missing is a stability of TRUST.

Gypsy
28-11-2008, 00:20
KM - your comments on russia seem spot on. The disagreement at TNK BP that enabled the Kremlin to take control was over the efficient expoitation of the resources with BP wanting to invest to make the crude extraction more profitable - the Russians just wanting to pump as much as possible as quickly as possible. Short term and self defeating as we are seeing.

Carbo
28-11-2008, 00:27
I was reading Peter Schiff's comments on the US Economy (he was the one who predicted the collapse in 2006). He comments that the Americans are doing the wrong thing. But Giving the people more money to blow on consumer goods or over inflated the home prices is not the solution. But what is needed is a downgrade of the economy and to look to be more effective and efficient productivity. Doing business in the USA can be quite hair pulling experience with its bureaucracy and regulation to support ill fitted legal system. I say this, because USA is producing more non value added jobs then value added jobs.Aka Lawyers than Engineers. People must save and place their money in the entrepreneurial spirit, not just hoping to sue people.

Russia, well bureaucracy and politics have killed this country and will keep on killing this country. despite vast amounts of wealth in the land, people do not risk spending capital here, because they can lose it with a flick of Putin's pen. See what happened in Sakahlin Islands and BP-TNK and Aerostar Hotel. The oligarch themselves do not spend money on exploration and it is the reason why Oil production in Russia is stagnating. Manufacturing facilities are not being constructed like they should despite cheap educated work force and vast resources. What is missing is a stability of TRUST.
Well, I think even the most patriotic, nationalist Russophiles would have difficulty disagreeing with the second part of that.

And the first part is probably true, to a certain extent, as well. But if they just left the economy to liquidate, it would leave everyone in a great depression of the 2010s, and nobody, nobody wants that.

The economy was in the black, with virtually no national debt until stupid head Bush came along. He squandered the first budgetary surplus since Eisenhower passed the baton to JFK. It can be put right, and far rather through gradual adjustment than global, decade long depression.

Carbo
28-11-2008, 00:30
KM - your comments on russia seem spot on. The disagreement at TNK BP that enabled the Kremlin to take control was over the efficient expoitation of the resources with BP wanting to invest to make the crude extraction more profitable - the Russians just wanting to pump as much as possible as quickly as possible. Short term and self defeating as we are seeing.
Do you mean the tug of war between the AAR partners (the TNK part of TNK-BP) and BP?

Kraven Morehead
28-11-2008, 00:56
If people think Russia is a bad situation, then Ukraine is in a horrible situation. Ukraine's Oligarch and political division is destroying the country apart. Inflation is at 31% and threatening to hit 50%. Ukraine has all Russia's weaknesses and none of its strengths.
Ukraine in the summer, had a higher price for sq ft apartments then most American cities during the housing boom. Even worse, when the interest cost of a flat was more than the ability to rent a flat, then you know it was pure speculation. It was happening in Russia, but the Russian gov't was more stable and has a significant rainy day fund. Unfortunately my belief is that the IMF money in Ukraine is like trying to put out a fire with eye dropper of water.

I know that many Ukrainians were waiting for Russia to come rescue them, but the Russian gov't realized that if they help Ukraine out , they might suffer a similar fate. That is why you saw a turn in the Russian gov't in which Medvevev is the economic bad cop giving the bad news and Putin is the hero or economic good cop giving the good news.

USA has to realize that life is not fair and that not every American will have 1500 sq ft house and with shite picket fence. Every kid cannot owe Xbox, PS2 and Wii. Unfortunately this dream is coming to a crash and we have to pay for the excesses of the past. Russia was heading the same way. How many kids were buying new cars and cell phones on easy credit?

For all nations, good bye consumerism easy money spend thrift,
Say hello to Entrepreneurial hard working saving mind people.

Gypsy
28-11-2008, 00:59
Do you mean the tug of war between the AAR partners (the TNK part of TNK-BP) and BP?
Yes

Kraven Morehead
28-11-2008, 01:01
Well, I think even the most patriotic, nationalist Russophiles would have difficulty disagreeing with the second part of that.

And the first part is probably true, to a certain extent, as well. But if they just left the economy to liquidate, it would leave everyone in a great depression of the 2010s, and nobody, nobody wants that.

The economy was in the black, with virtually no national debt until stupid head Bush came along. He squandered the first budgetary surplus since Eisenhower passed the baton to JFK. It can be put right, and far rather through gradual adjustment than global, decade long depression.

If the second part is incorrect, then where is the manufacturing sector? Russia has some best and brightest people, great education, and vast resources. Why is that there is a weak manufacturing sector?

You cannot blame the whole thing on the USA. Uk was also in similar situation. UK is in such a bad way right now. Same with Iceland and Germany. We have been living beyond our economical and resources capabilities.

Carbo
28-11-2008, 01:05
If the second part is incorrect, then where is the manufacturing sector? Russia has some best and brightest people, great education, and vast resources. Why is that there is a weak manufacturing sector?

You cannot blame the whole thing on the USA. Uk was also in similar situation. UK is in such a bad way right now. Same with Iceland and Germany. We have been living beyond our economical and resources capabilities.

Eh? I was said that nobody could argue with the second part. Sorry if I didn't make it clear.

Kraven Morehead
28-11-2008, 01:07
Oh sorry

Kvartiraokhotnik
28-11-2008, 08:22
OK - let's go for 1 year (I think you indicated already 6 months before?) and 1 beer. :11157: I bet against you that the world does not get de-dollarised in that period and add that the RUB will not appreciate above the level vs. the USD it had COB today.

This would require world trade to change over night and a complete shift of financial markets. Prefereably I take a German beer then, please!

I'll bet you your favourite german beer that within 6 months there is an international crisis, and within a year, the dollar will not be the world currency :)

Carbo
28-11-2008, 09:20
I'll bet you your favourite german beer that within 6 months there is an international crisis, and within a year, the dollar will not be the world currency :)
Well, it all depends on your version of "international crisis". One could says we're already in one and that there's no way it'll be over on six months, so you would have won the first part of your bet.

As for the second, I cannot see that coming in. Sure the Fed will -- and are already -- get the printing presses pumping dollars out at unprecedented levels, but then the rest will start soon, too.

It's like a group of people being chased by a bear in the woods: you don't need to run fast, you just need to make sure you're not the slowest.

Adamodeus
28-11-2008, 12:47
I agree that in the short run you won't see the effect. But why are Germany and France building huge LPG terminals and LPG & LNG tankers are constructed like mad by shipyards? Right - because Europe wants to have the choice. After all - all the oil will not help you if it's worth just 40 USD a barell - that's too little for Russia to keep subsidising its other industry (which is still not producing anyhthing you could sell easily on the world market).
Everybody wants an alternative. And I want Angelina Jolie. The question is: am I willing to finance this hugely expensive enterprise, particularly, if I'm already in bed with Miss Russia? You said, 5-10 years. To me - that's short term. There is not question that eventually, somebody will come up with a better source of energy than oil and gas, but neither one of us will see that day in our lifetime, I'm sure. Do you honestly think that buying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia is a better alternative than getting it through the Russian pipes? Regardless of the political situation or the various ideological agendas, the USSR (and then Russia) has been continuously supplying Europe with oil and gas for more than half a century. For all the talk about Russian economic blackmail, nobody can demonstrate a single instance of Russia reneging on a single contract or completely turning off the tap when its demands were not met. There have been several short-term irregularities that never amounted to nothing more than "supply being reduced by 30% for 3 weeks". And the Europeans know this. If there had ever been a real problem, there would have been an alternative by now. Just as the Russians will never do anything to help the collapse of the dollar, neither will they willingly antagonize their best market for hydrocarbons. Both Europe and Russia are generally happy about the way things are going.

And what's complex at the network? It goes in on the one side - and has many offtakers with a meter at the border - so it's easy to see where the gas was coming from and going to.
When I said "complex", I didn't mean "difficult to follow", I meant "comprehensive".

Kvartiraokhotnik
28-11-2008, 14:46
Well, it all depends on your version of "international crisis". One could says we're already in one and that there's no way it'll be over on six months, so you would have won the first part of your bet.

As for the second, I cannot see that coming in. Sure the Fed will -- and are already -- get the printing presses pumping dollars out at unprecedented levels, but then the rest will start soon, too.

It's like a group of people being chased by a bear in the woods: you don't need to run fast, you just need to make sure you're not the slowest.

Personally I reckon the international crisis will be a false flag terror attack, perhaps ionvolving biological/chemical or nuclear weapons, and that the attack will be used as an excuse for war. Seeing as this has been the status quo of modern history, I reckon my beer is safe.

So...do you fancy a little flutter Carbo?? A beer says the dollar will not be the world currency in one year...

xSnoofovich
28-11-2008, 16:08
A beer says the dollar will not be the world currency in one year...

What currency will you use to buy the beer? ;)

Kvartiraokhotnik
28-11-2008, 20:27
What currency will you use to buy the beer? ;)

No need...Ive already got 100 crates stacked up in the garage, ready for the world famine :10518:

Kvartiraokhotnik
28-11-2008, 20:31
Personally I reckon the international crisis will be a false flag terror attack, perhaps ionvolving biological/chemical or nuclear weapons, and that the attack will be used as an excuse for war. Seeing as this has been the status quo of modern history, I reckon my beer is safe.

So...do you fancy a little flutter Carbo?? A beer says the dollar will not be the world currency in one year...

"a serious disease outbreak or bio-terrorism incident in the next 18 months could tip the global economy from serious recession into a global depression."

Terrorists could strike Britain by infecting country with bird flu - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3527575/Terrorists-could-strike-Britain-by-infecting-country-with-bird-flu.html)

Kraven Morehead
29-11-2008, 03:57
"a serious disease outbreak or bio-terrorism incident in the next 18 months could tip the global economy from serious recession into a global depression."

Terrorists could strike Britain by infecting country with bird flu - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3527575/Terrorists-could-strike-Britain-by-infecting-country-with-bird-flu.html)

Bioterrorism- it is called a Bigmac

schmidtskatze
29-11-2008, 14:46
I'll bet you your favourite german beer that within 6 months there is an international crisis, and within a year, the dollar will not be the world currency :)

We already have an international crisis for about 1 year now. I don't disagree with this. But OK for the second part of the bet!

schmidtskatze
29-11-2008, 15:11
Everybody wants an alternative. And I want Angelina Jolie. The question is: am I willing to finance this hugely expensive enterprise, particularly, if I'm already in bed with Miss Russia? You said, 5-10 years. To me - that's short term. There is not question that eventually, somebody will come up with a better source of energy than oil and gas, but neither one of us will see that day in our lifetime, I'm sure. Do you honestly think that buying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia is a better alternative than getting it through the Russian pipes?

I didn't say this. What I mean is if you can be put under pressure by one party you should build up alternatives to escape single dependency. And Saudi oil will be as good as Bolivian to serve this purpose. You don't need to like each other to do exchage things. Alternative ressources however will play a major role - I think this is the booming industry area in the coming years. I agree that 5-10 years is extremly ambitious - but if Europe wants to continue to rank amongst the leading industrial nations it has to overcome the reliance on fossile energy sources other countries will continue to burn massively to support their growth. Europe just lacks any other alternative in this regard - and I think this message is well heard. Plus politicians can ride the "green" wave to sell it to their voters.



Regardless of the political situation or the various ideological agendas, the USSR (and then Russia) has been continuously supplying Europe with oil and gas for more than half a century. For all the talk about Russian economic blackmail, nobody can demonstrate a single instance of Russia reneging on a single contract or completely turning off the tap when its demands were not met. There have been several short-term irregularities that never amounted to nothing more than "supply being reduced by 30% for 3 weeks". And the Europeans know this.


I agree with you. Main point is that Russia is as dependent on the petro dollars as we are on the gas. Currently it looks stable - but political instability is a big threat here. They may act completly unreasonable at their own costs. It doesn't seem likely that they switch it off tomorrow - on the other end they want our money to invest in their infrastructure so that they then can sell things to us. This is a bit odd given that on the other hand they don't want to loose control.



If there had ever been a real problem, there would have been an alternative by now.

Don't think so - tapping energy ressources takes a lot of time and investment. At the moment Europe has no swift alternative.



Just as the Russians will never do anything to help the collapse of the dollar, neither will they willingly antagonize their best market for hydrocarbons. Both Europe and Russia are generally happy about the way things are going.


I'm not sure Europe is so happy about it to be honest. We should feel very uncomfortable about the lack of alternatives.




When I said "complex", I didn't mean "difficult to follow", I meant "comprehensive".

OK - got you.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 16:30
[QUOTE=schmidtskatze;467609]. Alternative ressources however will play a major role - I think this is the booming industry area in the coming years. I agree that 5-10 years is extremly ambitious - but if Europe wants to continue to rank amongst the leading industrial nations it has to overcome the reliance on fossile energy sources other countries will continue to burn massively to support their growth.

[QUOTE]

Alternative sources of energy are everywhere, and have been known for decades, even centuries (windmill???)

They HAVENT been developed on an industrial scale, because they would free people from the grid system, which works very much like the financial system....Its a system which has been developed to control and tax the labour of individuals and keep them in precisely the same position as feudal serfs.

Alternative sources of energy will only be developed on an individual basis, and it is right that people should understand it ON AN INDIVIDUAL level. When people form groups, political parties or crowds, insanity is the rule governing them.... like outside Walmart in our other thread. For this reason, globalism will always be doomed to fail and the individual will, one day at any rate, triumph.

The individual has triumphed countless times already, and is the very definition of what it meeans to be human.

Gypsy
29-11-2008, 17:05
This is so embarassingly poor it is hard to know where to begin.



Alternative sources of energy are everywhere, and have been known for decades, even centuries (windmill???)

They HAVENT been developed on an industrial scale, because they would free people from the grid system, which works very much like the financial system....Its a system which has been developed to control and tax the labour of individuals and keep them in precisely the same position as feudal serfs.

Simply another lie.

The grid system has evolved because it is the most efficient way to get electricity to everybody. Presumably when you push the light switch you want the light to go on. How will the power get there without a grid system? How could everyone make their own electricity? Someone living in an apartment block for example. Moronic.

And it is a FACT that the Gridcos of the western european countries buy electricity generated from windmills and other means.It is perfectly possible and profitable to generate electricity and sell to the Grid- ask Dutch and German farmers.

There is - sadly for you flathunter -considerable opposition to windmills, and all these people believe that the political organisations are against them, in exactly the way you think they are for the grid.

You know nothing about this subject as you have just clearly shown.


Alternative sources of energy will only be developed on an individual basis, and it is right that people should understand it ON AN INDIVIDUAL level. When people form groups, political parties or crowds, insanity is the rule governing them.... like outside Walmart in our other thread. For this reason, globalism will always be doomed to fail and the individual will, one day at any rate, triumph.
Laughable, I don't know which is worse the puerile politics or the lack of common sense. Energy developed on an individual basis? Mm I'll try that in my apartment - but somehow I doubt my lights will go on.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 17:30
This is so embarassingly poor it is hard to know where to begin.


Simply another lie.

The grid system has evolved because it is the most efficient way to get electricity to everybody. Presumably when you push the light switch you want the light to go on. How will the power get there without a grid system? How could everyone make their own electricity? Someone living in an apartment block for example. Moronic.

And it is a FACT that the Gridcos of the western european countries buy electricity generated from windmills and other means.It is perfectly possible and profitable to generate electricity and sell to the Grid- ask Dutch and German farmers.

There is - sadly for you flathunter -considerable opposition to windmills, and all these people believe that the political organisations are against them, in exactly the way you think they are for the grid.

You know nothing about this subject as you have just clearly shown.


Laughable, I don't know which is worse the puerile politics or the lack of common sense. Energy developed on an individual basis? Mm I'll try that in my apartment - but somehow I doubt my lights will go on.


TESLA DEMONSTRATED WIRELESS POWER TRANSMISSION OVER 100 YEARS AGO.

So, it is perfectly possible to transmit electrical power without a grid system. In fact, I can light as many flourescent bulbs as i like, with no wires whatsoever, with the tesla coil that I have made.....and as soon as i build a receiving antennae ill be able to power motors also, and without a transmission wire.

Would you like a home made video from me to demonstrate this ancient piece of scientific wisdom?

It is you who knows nothing about this topic i'm afraid gypsy....

And these experiments can be done INDIVIDUALLY, and in your flat. See the photo below...There are no wires connecting the bulb. The gases are being ionised by a powerful electromagnetic field.

I feel an apology is in order. :thumbsup:

Judge
29-11-2008, 17:33
Alternative ressources however will play a major role

HEMP

Judge
29-11-2008, 17:37
Bloody hell Kvartiraokhotnik,soon you will be powering all of Moscow..:thumbsup::thumbsup:

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 17:40
Bloody hell Kvartiraokhotnik,soon you will be powering all of Moscow..:thumbsup::thumbsup:

You havent seen my anti grav machine yet judge :)

Thats coming soon!!!! Just need to work a little with my magnetic vortices...

If anyone else is interested in weird science, i recommend the work of TT Brown for anti grav.

J.D.
29-11-2008, 17:55
I found a way to generate free energy in my flat. My water is not metered so I put a generator on my bathtub tap. It won't run quite run my electric oven but no problem with the lights.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 17:59
I found a way to generate free energy in my flat. My water is not metered so I put a generator on my bathtub tap. It won't run quite run my electric oven but no problem with the lights.

Superb JD!!!!

The simplest ways are always the best!!! Got any photos of the generator you connect to the tap? Or are you winding me up? I think it would take a damn high water pressure to generate enough amps....so perhaps you're pulling our legs?

This thread looks like its becoming an alternative energy thread...and one where people discuss their attempts at ''free energy'' (i prefer the words ''free work''...thats what were after) on an individual basis. Something very useful for us all.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 18:04
I coudnt resist it....
Heres my ''anti grav'' home made UFO.

J.D.
29-11-2008, 18:07
Well my gas isn't metered either so I figure I can get something going on my stove top next.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 18:09
Well my gas isn't metered either so I figure I can get something going on my stove top next.

The world spinning round isnt metered, so perhaps we can get some free energy from that!

Honestly JD, is this a wind up? Show us your generator!!!!

J.D.
29-11-2008, 18:17
The pressure is rather low. I'm thinking that since I live on the 8th floor I could drop a hose down from my balcony to the ground and set up the generator there. That should increase the pressure significantly, might even be able to run my oven then. But I suspect that Newton's conservation rules would mean that I will lose the advantage when I pump the electricity back up to my flat on the 8th floor.
Pictures will follow just as soon as I finish charging the battery in my camera.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 18:20
The pressure is rather low. I'm thinking that since I live on the 8th floor I could drop a hose down from my balcony to the ground and set up the generator there. That should increase the pressure significantly, might even be able to run my oven then. But I suspect that Newton's conservation rules would mean that I will lose the advantage when I pump the electricity back up to my flat on the 8th floor.
Pictures will follow just as soon as I finish charging the battery in my camera.

What kind of magnets does your generator have???

Neos?????

Looking forward to seeing the pictures, and thanks for sharing!!! This is what a forum is all about!

To ''pump'' the elecy back up to your floor WON'T cost as much energy as pumping water back up to your floor. Electricity weighs much less than the water! So i dont reckon youll lose any ''advantage''. But the machine will still obey Newtons laws, as far as i can see.....would love to see some photos!!!!

J.D.
29-11-2008, 18:33
Does light weigh less than electricity? Maybe I could convert the electricity to light and beam it back up and then convert it back to electricity. I would really like to maximize my design.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 18:39
Does light weigh less than electricity? Maybe I could convert the electricity to light and beam it back up and then convert it back to electricity. I would really like to maximize my design.

Hmmmm.

Until i see your design i will remain sceptical JD. Your first question seems to make me wonder....I think you are winding me up.

Why not have a wire from your generator running up to your flat?

Show me your generator!!!

PS....electricity is electromagnetic radiation. So is light. They have the same ''weight'', but not the same wavelength.

Judge
29-11-2008, 18:51
Heres my ''anti grav'' home made UFO.

Thta's cool..you could float it out of your balcony and take pics...There will be a UFO sighting in Moscow...Might make russian tv.:ok:

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 19:07
Thta's cool..you could float it out of your balcony and take pics...There will be a UFO sighting in Moscow...Might make russian tv.:ok:

I've been on Vremochka once before...

They wanted an Englishmans perspective on the Litvinenko scandal....As you can imagine, my theory of ''the British government are responsible for his murder'' went down a treat with the producer :)

I've still got a video of it on my old laptop....ill have to send you a copy!

Judge
29-11-2008, 20:00
I've been on Vremochka once before...

They wanted an Englishmans perspective on the Litvinenko scandal....As you can imagine, my theory of ''the British government are responsible for his murder'' went down a treat with the producer :)

I've still got a video of it on my old laptop....ill have to send you a copy!

Please do,we have a tv star on expat.ru..:10641::10641:

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 20:10
Please do,we have a tv star on expat.ru..:10641::10641:

You'll have to buy me a drink one day, and ill bring my lappie and show you....It was a couple of years back, and the video is a big file....its a whole 1 hour of vremochka, but im only on for the first five mins. I was a bit annoyed how they edited it.....they cut out the part when i was talking about how many innocents in Iraq and Afghanistan had already died. i thought it was a central part of my argument that our government is run by people who have sold their souls to the devil.

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 20:26
Back to the economic meltdown...

Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3526645/Citigroup-says-gold-could-rise-above-2000-next-year-as-world-unravels.html)

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 20:27
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS1EO58fp1M

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 20:34
RT: Interview with Ron Paul on 2008-11-27 09:36 (http://www.russiatoday.com/guests/video/1833)

Judge
29-11-2008, 20:34
Back to the economic meltdown...

Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3526645/Citigroup-says-gold-could-rise-above-2000-next-year-as-world-unravels.html)

Yeah, read that before..it made me laugh because Peter Schiff said the same thing ages ago..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tzUwfqvJY

Kvartiraokhotnik
29-11-2008, 20:38
Like I said before...if you're listening to Peter, you know whats going to happen in the economy. You know the score judge. I know the score.....and its only thanks to people like Peter!

AstroNoodle
30-11-2008, 02:27
TESLA DEMONSTRATED WIRELESS POWER TRANSMISSION OVER 100 YEARS AGO.

So, it is perfectly possible to transmit electrical power without a grid system. In fact, I can light as many flourescent bulbs as i like, with no wires whatsoever, with the tesla coil that I have made.....and as soon as i build a receiving antennae ill be able to power motors also, and without a transmission wire.

Would you like a home made video from me to demonstrate this ancient piece of scientific wisdom?

It is you who knows nothing about this topic i'm afraid gypsy....

And these experiments can be done INDIVIDUALLY, and in your flat. See the photo below...There are no wires connecting the bulb. The gases are being ionised by a powerful electromagnetic field.

I feel an apology is in order. :thumbsup:

I know that you can power lights with just a little charged battery, and one of my plans for next year is to make an alternative lighting program for my home. There is a book I am planning to buy that tells how.

I also plan to start working on studying electricity some more. I would like to buy some land somewhere with a little waterfall to power the entire home.

Even without a waterfall, you may not make enough for heat or cooking, but you can definitely do light and be the only person with lights when there is a blackout.

They say Tesla had an electic car, but I am not sure if that was made up. He could definitely do things that nobody is doing today. One of the eerie things about his wireless electricity experiments is that the wireless electicity was at the same power as is in our brains.

As for me, much more study is in order on this topic -- math and electricity. :book:

We have had alternative energy for at least seventy years -- as in available on a mass scale -- even some power for free. Much of the energy industry is a pointless, earth-destroying, money-making scam.

Kvartiraokhotnik
30-11-2008, 10:42
I know that you can power lights with just a little charged battery, and one of my plans for next year is to make an alternative lighting program for my home. There is a book I am planning to buy that tells how.

I also plan to start working on studying electricity some more. I would like to buy some land somewhere with a little waterfall to power the entire home.

Even without a waterfall, you may not make enough for heat or cooking, but you can definitely do light and be the only person with lights when there is a blackout.

They say Tesla had an electic car, but I am not sure if that was made up. He could definitely do things that nobody is doing today. One of the eerie things about his wireless electricity experiments is that the wireless electicity was at the same power as is in our brains.

As for me, much more study is in order on this topic -- math and electricity. :book:

We have had alternative energy for at least seventy years -- as in available on a mass scale -- even some power for free. Much of the energy industry is a pointless, earth-destroying, money-making scam.

Sounds like we are on similar paths!!!

There are loads of alternative energy generators you can buy on the net astro. A waterfall would be beautiful, but you could just use the wind and the sun. Bear in mind also that Tesla invented a ''radiant energy collector'' which collected energy day or night from highly energetic particles arriving from other galaxies. So there are many ways to skin a cat. All of this info is available on the net, and i wish you luck in your quest for self sufficiency.

As for cooking, sometimes the old tried and tested methods are the best. There are some extremely efficient clay ovens which can be powered simply by wood, and heat your gaff at the same time. Again, as im sure you know anyway, the info is on the net.

Please share your progress with us in these matters...I'm already on another forum called ''overunity.com'', where lots of these kind of ideas are discussed. I recommend going there if you're serious about this. I'll send you any details of what im up to also....at the moment im interested in motors that work on atmopspheric energy, and i wanna get some helium balloons to get my few microamps that'll power my tiny motors. Other than this, teslas wireless transmission system interests me.

Have great fun experimenting, share your knowledge and good luck!

AstroNoodle
30-11-2008, 22:10
If I can, I want to take my home completely off grid.

I'm pretty sure that I am on to something for home-solar heating. You would use solar to heat the water and then pump the water through the house. It is always the same water.

I know a guy who does it, but he uses wood. He said that he could switch to solar.

It takes time to learn and do this stuff, but nobody from the energy industry is going to let alternative energy go mass-scale. You have to want to do it and go for it yourself.

And today Thomas Edison gets credit for Tesla's achievments. Did you know that Tesla died in a hotel room in one of Edison's hotels. The hotel was powered by its own on-site Direct Current engine -- that was Edison's idea.

Tesla had advocated Alternating Current, which at the time of his death had spread everywhere. Edison fired Tesla and advocated DC in the "Current Wars." When Tesla won, Edison, an atheist, got the credit, that is if current notoriety is any indication.

Tesla was the main person who brought electricity to the world. Compared to Tesla, Edison was second-rate at best.

Kvartiraokhotnik
30-11-2008, 23:44
Yes Astro, I'm a big Tesla fan also! I agree with your last sentence, but lets admit that Edison also had a spark of genius inside....Tesla admired him in his early years, as he admired Faraday and Lord Kelvin. Its Einstein who winds me up, and I think Tesla realised that at the very least, Edison was a true scientist. He did experiments. Einstein just did equations. Tesla did both. Listen to a few words Tesla gave on relativity

“ ... magnificent mathematical garb which fascinates, dazzles and makes people blind to the underlying errors. The theory is like a beggar clothed in purple whom ignorant people take for a king..., its exponents are brilliant men but they are metaphysicists rather than scientists... ”

'' I hold that space cannot be curved, for the simple reason that it can have no properties. It might as well be said that God has properties. He has not, but only attributes and these are of our own making. Of properties we can only speak when dealing with matter filling the space. To say that in the presence of large bodies space becomes curved is equivalent to stating that something can act upon nothing. I, for one, refuse to subscribe to such a view.''

So Tesla was certainly critical of relativity, and science based on theory and mathematics rather than empirical results.

Another thing you may or may not be aware of concerning Tesla is that he was immensely interested in Hinduism and vedic philosophy (just like Schopenhauer!). He was more of a hindi than a christian in many respects.

Remember, Tesla wasnt forgotten for his achievements....Do you know of any scientific units called Edison??? Me neither....We have joules, kelvin, henry, farads, ohms, amps...all of these named after scientists. And magnetic flux is measured in Teslas. Tesla was never forgotten, and many saw him as the victor of the war of the currents. Whats comes out of your plug...AC or DC?? Seeing as DC cant be sent more than a mile or 2 down a wire without losing all its power as heat in resistance, its more than obvious that AC has its advantages over DC for transmission.....though most of the things in your home have to be rectified back to DC to be used.
In other words, both currents are necessary for our grid system to work.
And they were both great men, regardless of their religious persuasion.

Heres a good quote to make you think differently about Edison. I'll quote it in full cos i think its a very interesting read. He certainly understood the WORLD FINANCIAL SCAM, run by the money masters, or international banking cartels, or whatever you wanna call these thieves and counterfeiters:

"People who will not turn a shovelful of dirt nor contribute a pound of material will collect more money from the United States than will the people who supply the material and do the work.

That is the terrible thing about interest. In all our great bond issues the interest is always greater than the principal. All of the great public works cost more than twice the actual cost, on that account. Under the present system of doing business we simply add 120 to 150 per cent, to the stated cost.

But here is the point: If our nation can issue a dollar bond, it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good.

The difference between the bond and the bill is that the bond lets the money brokers collect twice the amount of the bond and an additional 20 per cent, whereas the currency pays nobody but those who directly contribute to Muscle Shoals in some useful way.

... if the Government issues currency, it provides itself with enough money to increase the national wealth at Muscles Shoals without disturbing the business of the rest of the country. And in doing this it increases its income without adding a penny to its debt.

It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30,000,000 in bonds and not $30,000,000 in currency. Both are promises to pay; but one promise fattens the usurer, and the other helps the people.

If the currency issued by the Government were no good, then the bonds issued would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious values of gold.

Look at it another way. If the Government issues bonds, the brokers will sell them. The bonds will be negotiable; they will be considered as gilt edged paper. Why? Because the government is behind them, but who is behind the Government?

The people.

Therefore it is the people who constitute the basis of Government credit. Why then cannot the people have the benefit of their own gilt-edged credit by receiving non-interest bearing currency on Muscle Shoals, instead of the bankers receiving the benefit of the people's credit in interest-bearing bonds?"